Weekend Box Office Predictions
May 5 - May 7, 2023
Published on May 4, 2023 at 5:00PM Pacific |
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| The summer moviegoing season kicks off this weekend with the release of Disney's Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. The latest installment of the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) and the third
Guardians of the Galaxy film sees the return of director James Gunn, the return of stars Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldaña, Dave Bautista, Karen Gillan and Pom Klementieff and the return of vocal cast members Vin Diesel and Bradley Cooper. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 is
playing in a very wide 4,450 locations this weekend, will be playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. On the average critical reviews for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 have been good, but at the
same time the film also has the lowest consensus critical reception of the three Guardians of the Galaxy films. Back in August of 2014, Guardians of the Galaxy had a break-out debut of $94.32 million and went on to gross
$333.18 million domestically. In May of 2017, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 opened with $146.51 million before finishing its domestic run with $389.81 million. While Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 doesn't look to have
the same level of pre-release buzz as its predecessor did, the film should still open somewhere in between the two previous Guardians of the Galaxy films. Opening weekend potential for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 will also be held
back a bit by the film not looking to receive quite the same amount of showtimes per location as a typical MCU film, due in part to The Super Mario Bros. Movie continuing to hold onto a high percentage of its showtimes per location from last weekend
and due in part to the 150 minute run-time of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 will start out with $118.0 million this weekend. |
| After leading the domestic box office for the past four weekends (including last weekend with $40.84 million), Universal, Illumination and Nintendo's The Super Mario Bros. Movie is set to slide to a distant second
place this weekend. With that said, The Super Mario Bros. Movie could still have a solid hold this weekend in the face of the arrival of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, as The Super Mario Bros. Movie looks to be
holding onto a high percentage of its showtimes per location this weekend (as mentioned). Last year in the face of the arrival of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, The Bad Guys declined 41.0 percent, while
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 decreased 47.8 percent. The Super Mario Bros. Movie could be headed towards a percentage decline more in line with that of The Bad Guys last year. Look for The Super Mario Bros. Movie to
decrease 42.5 percent for a weekend take of $23.5 million. |
| Last weekend saw Warner Bros. and New Line's Evil Dead Rise exceed expectations once again after the well-received horror film declined 50.5 percent to hold steady in second place with $12.13 million. Even with the added presence of
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 in the marketplace, Evil Dead Rise could continue to stabilize either further this weekend, due in part to continued strong word of mouth and due in part to Evil Dead Rise also holding onto a high
percentage of its showtimes per locations this weekend (much like The Super Mario Bros. Movie). A respectable 47.2 percent decline would transfter into a third place take of $6.4 million this weekend for Evil Dead Rise. |
| Also opening in wide release this weekend is Sony's Love Again. The Jim Strouse directed romantic comedy stars Priyanka Chopra Jonas, Sam Heughan, and Celine Dion (as a fictionalized version of herself). Love Again is
playing in 2,703 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 4PM. As of publishing, critical reviews have yet to start appearing for Love Again, which typically isn't a good sign. Expectations for
Love Again are quite modest and the film could potentially open in between last weekend's respective $6.74 million and $2.93 million starts of Lionsgate's Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret and fellow Sony release
Big George Foreman. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Love Again will open with $4.4 million this weekend, which would likely place the film in a close race for fourth place with the mentioned Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret. As
for, Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret, thanks in part to strong critical reviews and strong word of mouth (the film received an A rating on CinemaScore) the film is likely to experience a healthy second weekend hold this
weekend. A decline of just 36.2 percent would give Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret $4.3 million this weekend. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 10 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Disney) |
$118.0 M | $118.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Universal) |
$23.5 M | $523.0 M | -42% | 5 |
| 3 | Evil Dead Rise (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$6.4 M | $54.7 M | -47% | 3 |
| 4 | Love Again (Sony / Screen Gems) |
$4.4 M | $4.4 M | NEW | 1 |
| 5 | Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret (Lionsgate) |
$4.3 M | $13.6 M | -36% | 2 |
| 6 | John Wick: Chapter 4 (Lionsgate) |
$2.9 M | $180.6 M | -40% | 7 |
| 7 | Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (Paramount) |
$2.4 M | $91.9 M | -42% | 6 |
| 8 | Air (Amazon Studios) |
$2.2 M | $51.0 M | -45% | 5 |
| 9 | Guy Ritchie's The Covenant (MGM) |
$1.65 M | $15.2 M | -54% | 3 |
| 10 | Sisu (Lionsgate) |
$1.60 M | $6.0 M | -56% | 2 |
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