Weekend Box Office Predictions
April 21 - April 23, 2023
Published on April 20, 2023 at 5:30PM Pacific |
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| Universal, Illumination and Nintendo's The Super Mario Bros. Movie is set to comfortably rule the domestic box office for a third consecutive frame this weekend. Last weekend the computer animated blockbuster had
an exceptional second weekend hold for an event film, by declining just 36.9 percent to take in $92.35 million. That represented the seventh largest second weekend gross of all-time. With $371.19 million domestically though Wednesday,
The Super Mario Bros. Movie has already surpassed the $369.70 million total gross of last year's Minions: The Rise of Gru to become the highest grossing film ever for Illumination domestically. The Super Mario Bros. Movie is
showing no signs of slowing anytime soon and is likely to have an ever better percentage hold this weekend than the film did last weekend. Look for The Super Mario Bros. Movie to decline 33.4 percent to take in $61.5 million this weekend. That
would represent the seventh largest third weekend gross of all-time and move The Super Mario Bros. Movie well beyond the $400 million domestic mark. |
| The weekend's top new release will clearly be Warner Bros. and New Line's Evil Dead Rise. The latest installment of the Evil Dead franchise was directed by Lee Cronin and stars Lily Sullivan and Alyssa Sutherland. Originally,
Evil Dead Rise was intended to be initially released on HBO MAX, but the film was ultimately given a theatrical release. It appears that doing so was a very good decision, as there is a strong amount of pre-release buzz surrounding Evil Dead Rise. Very
strong critical reviews have also helped increase the level of buzz around the film. Evil Dead Rise will be playing in 3,402 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 7PM. Last weekend, neither
The Pope's Exorcist nor Renfield made much noise at the box office, and at least part of that may have had to do with many horror fans deciding to wait a week for Evil Dead Rise instead. Back in 2013,
Evil Dead (2013) opened with $25.78 million, before finishing its run with $54.24 million domestically. Evil Dead Rise likely won't reach those same heights at the box office, but it may not be all that far off either. BoxOfficeReport is
predicting that Evil Dead Rise will debut in second place this weekend with a very solid $21.5 million. |
| Also opening in wide release this weekend is MGM's Guy Ritchie's The Covenant. The Guy Ritchie directed action thriller stars Jake Gyllenhaal and Dar Salim. The Covenant will be playing in 2,611 locations this weekend
and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 7PM. Expectations are modest for The Covenant this weekend, but the film should at least be able to outpace the recent $3.14 million start of Ritchie's last film, Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre back in March.
Guy Ritchie's The Covenant could debut with $5.1 million this weekend. That would likely place the film in the same general neighborhood alongside four of this weekend's holdovers. Those holdovers include Lionsgate's
John Wick: Chapter 4 (which could decline 35.4 percent to take in $5.2 million), Amazon Studios' Air (which could decrease 36.3 percent to gross $5.0 million), Paramount's Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
(which could decrease 34.9 percent to take in $4.9 million) and Sony's The Pope's Exorcist (which could decline 50.0 percent to gross $4.5 million). |
| After an impressive platform launch in New York and Los Angeles last weekend (an estimated $320,396 from 4 locations), A24's Beau Is Afraid will expand to semi-wide release this weekend. The Ari Aster directed film
stars Joaquin Phoenix. On the average, critical reviews for Beau Is Afraid have been good, but at the same time those reviews haven't been as strong as those for Aster's previous two films, 2018's Hereditary and 2019's
Midsommar. Despite the strong platform launch, Beau Is Afraid will likely be a tougher sell with mainstream audiences than both Hereditary and Midsommar were, but the film could at least have a solid expansion this weekend. BoxOfficeReport
is predicting that Beau Is Afraid will take in $3.6 million this weekend. |
| This weekend also sees the release of Disney and Searchlight's Chevalier. The Stephen Williams directed biopic stars Kelvin Harrison Jr. as 18th century musician Joseph Bologne, Chevalier de Saint-Georges. Chevalier is playing
in 1,275 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. On the average, critical reviews for the film have been good. BoxOfficeReport is predicting a modest start of $2.0 million for Chevalier this weekend. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 10 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Universal) |
$61.5 M | $437.2 M | -33% | 3 |
| 2 | Evil Dead Rise (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$21.5 M | $21.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | John Wick: Chapter 4 (Lionsgate) |
$5.2 M | $168.3 M | -35% | 5 |
| 4 | Guy Ritchie's The Covenant (MGM) |
$5.1 M | $5.1 M | NEW | 1 |
| 5 | Air (Amazon Studios) |
$5.0 M | $41.1 M | -36% | 3 |
| 6 | Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (Paramount) |
$4.9 M | $81.6 M | -35% | 4 |
| 7 | The Pope's Exorcist (Sony / Screen Gems) |
$4.5 M | $16.1 M | -50% | 2 |
| 8 | Beau Is Afraid (A24) |
$3.6 M | $4.0 M | +1,024% | 2 |
| 9 | Renfield (Universal) |
$3.4 M | $13.9 M | -58% | 2 |
| 10 | Chevalier (Disney / Searchlight) |
$2.0 M | $2.0 M | NEW | 1 |
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