Weekend Box Office Predictions
April 14 - April 16, 2023
Published on April 13, 2023 at 5:15PM Pacific |
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| After zooming beyond expectations last weekend, Universal, Illumination and Nintendo's The Super Mario Bros. Movie will look to remain in first place at the domestic box office this weekend with absolute
ease. The blockbuster computer animated film grossed $204.63 million during its first five days; with $146.36 million of that total coming from the three-day weekend. The Super Mario Bros. Movie has continued to perform very
well throughout the midweek this week and on Wednesday the film surpassed the $250 million domestic mark after grossing $10.76 million for the day. In addition to the film's strong initial holding power thus far,
The Super Mario Bros. Movie also earned a strong A rating on CinemaScore. The Super Mario Bros. Movie will be helped out this weekend by holding onto a very high percentage of its average showtimes per location from last
weekend. The Super Mario Bros. Movie will continue to play on IMAX screens this weekend, though the film will lose some of its IMAX showtimes to Suzume (which will be splitting IMAX screens with The Super Mario Bros. Movie). This weekend's hold for
The Super Mario Bros. Movie will also receive a boost from last weekend's three-day weekend gross not being inflated by any preview shows. With all factors in mind, The Super Mario Bros. Movie could decline just 42.9 percent this weekend
for a second weekend gross of $83.5 million. That would represent the eleventh largest second weekend gross of all-time. |
| There are six new films receiving major releases this weekend, with Universal's Renfield looking to get off to the largest start of the six films in question. The R-rated horror comedy was directed by
Chris McKay and features Nicolas Cage, Nicholas Hoult and Awkwafina. Renfield is playing in 3,375 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. It feels like there has been a decent amount of buzz
around Renfield, but any break-out potential the film may have had looks unlikely to materialize this weekend due in part to the break-out performance of fellow Universal release The Super Mario Bros. Movie and in part to
critical reviews for Renfield ultimately being mixed. Renfield will likely at least get off to a larger start than the $7.13 million debut of The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent last April
(which also starred Cage). BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Renfield will debut in second place this weekend with $11.7 million. |
| Also opening in wide release this weekend is Sony's The Pope's Exorcist. The R-rated horror film from Screen Gems was directed by Julius Avery and stars Russell Crowe. The Pope's Exorcist is playing in
3,178 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 4PM. While there has certainly been an effort to push The Pope's Exorcist, it seems that there just isn't much interest in the film. Given the film's subject matter, The Pope's Exorcist may
be a case of a horror film that would have had more potential had it been rated PG-13 instead of R. The Super Mario Bros. Movie playing especially strong with Hispanic American moviegoers could also limit potential for
The Pope's Exorcist somewhat. Critical reviews for The Pope's Exorcist, while likely better than many may have been expecting, have still been mixed, which won't help matters either. Look for The Pope's Exorcist to open
with $8.7 million this weekend. |
| Last weekend Lionsgate's John Wick: Chapter 4, Amazon Studios' Air and Paramount's Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves were closely bunched together in second through fourth place with
respective weekend grosses of $14.47 million, $14.46 million and $13.88 million. The three films are likely to remain fairly close to one another this weekend, with Air potentially having the slight edge between the three films
this weekend, due in part to not losing any locations from last weekend (while John Wick: Chapter 4 and Dungeons & Dragons will both be losing some of their locations). Air could decline a solid 41.2 percent to take in
$8.5 million, John Wick Chapter 4 could decrease 43.3 percent to gross a similar $8.2 million and Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (which also looks to be losing a sizable percentage of its showtimes from last weekend in remaining theatres) could fall 47.4 percent for
a weekend take of $7.3 million. |
| Crunchyroll is releasing director Makoto Shinkai's latest anime film Suzume this weekend. The film will be playing in 2,170 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 4PM. As mentioned, Suzume will be splitting
IMAX screens this weekend with The Super Mario Bros. Movie. Crtical reviews for Suzume have been very strong. Suzume has been a blockbuster level performer throughout parts of Asia, but in the past Shinkai's popularity domestically has been much more limited in scale than his popularity in Japan.
Back in January of 2020, Shinkai's previous film Weathering with You, opened with $5.28 million over its first six days (while playing in 1,020 locations during its first two days of release and in 486 locations for the rest of its first six days). With the
wider launch this time around, Suzume could potentially open a bit higher over three days than Weathering with You opened with over six days. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Suzume will debut with $5.7 million this weekend. |
| Also opening in theatres this weekend are Bleecker Street's Mafia Mamma, Briarcliff's Sweetwater and Soli Deo Gloria Releasing's Nefarious. Mafia Mamma could start out with
$2.5 million this weekend from 2,002 locations. BoxOfficeReport isn't making official predictions this weekend for either Sweetwater or Nefarious, but both films are likely to place behind Paramount's Scream VI in this weekend's rankings. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Universal) |
$83.5 M | $344.0 M | -43% | 2 |
| 2 | Renfield (Universal) |
$11.7 M | $11.7 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | The Pope's Exorcist (Sony / Screen Gems) |
$8.7 M | $8.7 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Air (Amazon Studios) |
$8.5 M | $34.1 M | -41% | 2 |
| 5 | John Wick: Chapter 4 (Lionsgate) |
$8.2 M | $160.4 M | -43% | 4 |
| 6 | Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (Paramount) |
$7.3 M | $74.0 M | -47% | 3 |
| 7 | Suzume (Crunchyroll) |
$5.7 M | $5.7 M | NEW | 1 |
| 8 | Mafia Mamma (Bleecker Street) |
$2.5 M | $2.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 9 | Scream VI (Paramount) |
$1.6 M | $107.0 M | -53% | 6 |
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