Weekend Box Office Predictions
April 7 - April 9, 2023
Predictions published on April 5, 2023 at 12:15PM Pacific |
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| Early Wednesday Afternoon Update: |
| Universal, Illumination and Nintendo's highly anticipated The Super Mario Bros. Movie is set to take the Easter weekend box office by storm. The computer animated adaptation of the popular video game
franchise was directed by Aaron Horvath and Michael Jelenic, produced by Chris Meledandri and Shigeru Miyamoto and features a vocal cast that includes Chris Pratt, Anya Taylor-Joy, Charlie Day, Jack Black, Keegan-Michael Key and
Seth Rogen. The Super Mario Bros. Movie will be playing in 4,025 locations beginning on Wednesday and will see its location count increase to 4,343 locations on Friday. The Super Mario Bros. Movie will be playing on IMAX screens, but
didn't have pre-midnight Tuesday preview screenings. The combination of the extremely popular Nintendo franchise with the extremely popular Illumination animation studio has led to very high anticipation for the film among younger and
older moviegoers alike, as the film looks to be a sure four-quadrant hit. |
| Critical reviews for The Super Mario Bros. Movie have been mixed, but the film is likely to be critic-proof, especially during its first few days of release. In addition, video game based films typically
don't go over that well with film critics in general. With The Super Mario Bros. Movie also having appeal with older fans of the Super Mario Bros. video game series (who are more likely to rush out) and the Easter holiday weekend
(which isn't always the greatest frame for family films given Easter Sunday activities), The Super Mario Bros. Movie is likely to be more front-loaded towards Wednesday and Thursday (and obviously Good Friday) than a typical animated
film (opening during the midweek). The Super Mario Bros. Movie will also get an additional boost this weekend from the film's 92-minute run-time, which is helping increase the film's average amount of showtimes per location even further this
weekend. Last year Sonic the Hedgehog 2 debuted with a three-day launch of $72.11 million. With greater anticipation levels and the five-day window, the five-day start for The Super Mario Bros. Movie could more than double last year's three-day
start for Sonic the Hedgehog 2. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that The Super Mario Bros. Movie will debut with $151.0 million over the five-day frame, with $101.0 million of that total coming from the traditional three-day weekend frame. The
three-day figure would represent the third largest opening weekend ever for an Easter weekend release. |
| Due to time constraints, the rest of this weekend's written forecast will appear a bit later today. This weekend's full predictions chart can be found below. |
| Late Wednesday Afternoon Update: |
| Beyond The Super Mario Bros. Movie, it looks like it could be a close three-way race for second place this weekend between Paramount's Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, Amazon Studios' Air and Lionsgate's John Wick: Chapter 4. |
| Last weekend Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves was off to a promising first place start of $37.21 million. While critical reviews and early word of mouth are both strong (the film received a healthy A- rating on CinemaScore), the film will also likely be
dealing with some initial built-in front-loading and will also be losing its IMAX screens to The Super Mario Bros. Movie. Last weekend John Wick: Chapter 4 experienced a second weekend decline of 61.6 percent and
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves could be looking at a similar second weekend percentage decline this weekend. A sharp 62.4 percent decline would give Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves a second weekend take of $14.0 million. |
| On Wednesday, Air is opening in 3,507 locations. The sports themed drama about the origin of Nike's Air Jordan shoeline was directed by Ben Affleck. The film's cast features Affleck, Matt Damon,
Jason Bateman, Marlon Wayans, Chris Messina, Chris Tucker and Viola Davis. Critical reviews for the film have been excellent. The film's strong critical reception, the re-teaming of Affleck and Damon and interest among fans of
Air Jordan and Michael Jordan are factors that should all contribute towards a solid start for Air this weekend. Back in November of 2021, MGM's House of Gucci launched with a three-day opening weekend of $14.42 million and a
five-day start of $22.01 million. Air may not reach quite the same heights, but could open in the same general area over its first five days. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Air will debut with $19.0 million over its
first five days, with $13.2 million of that total coming from the three-day weekend. |
| In its third weekend of release, John Wick: Chapter 4 will look to stabilize. As mentioned, last weekend John Wick: Chapter 4 declined a sharp 61.6 percent, to place in second with $28.35 million. Back in 2019,
John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum declined 54.9 percent in its third weekend to gross $11.09 million. A similar 54.1 percent decrease would transfer into $13.0 million for John Wick: Chapter 4 this weekend. |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, Angel Studios' His Only Son, Paramount's Scream VI and MGM's Creed III could find themselves bunched fairly close together. With the aid of strong word of mouth
and the Easter holiday frame, His Only Son could decline just 36.4 percent for a second weekend take of $3.5 million. Scream VI stabilized nicely last weekend and could decrease a very similar 36.3 percent to take in $3.4 million this
weekend. Creed III could take a slight hit from Air this weekend to slow a still solid 40.1 percent for a weekend take of $3.0 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 8 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Universal) |
$101.0 M | $151.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (Paramount) |
$14.0 M | $62.0 M | -62% | 2 |
| 3 | Air (Amazon Studios) |
$13.2 M | $19.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | John Wick: Chapter 4 (Lionsgate) |
$13.0 M | $144.8 M | -54% | 3 |
| 5 | His Only Son (Angel Studios) |
$3.5 M | $11.4 M | -36% | 2 |
| 6 | Scream VI (Paramount) |
$3.4 M | $103.7 M | -36% | 5 |
| 7 | Creed III (MGM) |
$3.0 M | $153.4 M | -40% | 6 |
| 8 | Shazam! Fury of the Gods (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$1.9 M | $57.0 M | -59% | 4 |
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