Weekend Box Office Predictions
March 10 - March 12, 2023
Published on March 9, 2023 at 4:45PM Pacific |
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| It should be another healthy frame at the box office this weekend with the release of Paramount's Scream VI/. The sixth installment of the Scream franchise sees the return of Scream (2022) directors
Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett and features a cast that includes Melissa Barrera, Jasmin Savoy Brown, Mason Gooding, Jenna Ortega, Hayden Panettiere and Courteney Cox (among others). Scream VI is playing in 3,675 locations this weekend
and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 5:30PM (with a 3D fan event beginning a bit earlier at 5PM). Last year Scream (2022) debuted with $30.02 million and had a four-day Martin Luther King holiday weekend gross of $33.86 million. In comparison to Scream (2022),
Scream VI has a number of advantages going for it, which should lead to a significantly larger opening weekend. As a sequel, instead of a partial re-launch of the franchise and in opening in a month full of other high-profile releases, there should
be more built-in front-loading for Scream VI than there was for Scream (2022). Scream VI should also get a significant boost this weekend from being the first Scream film to play on higher priced 3D screens. In addition,
Scream VI being set in New York City and Jenna Ortega's popularity having risen in the past year thanks in part to the Wednesday Netflix streaming series, should also provide boosts for Scream VI at the box office. As was the case with
Scream (2022), on the average critical reviews for Scream VI have been good, but not great. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Scream VI will debut in first place this weekend with $44.0 million, which would represent the
largest unadjusted opening ever for the Scream franchise. |
| Last weekend saw MGM's Creed III break out with a first place debut of $58.37 million. The sports film sequel directed by and starring Michael B. Jordan has benefited from strong critical reviews, good initial word
of mouth (Creed III received an A- rating on CinemaScore) and from a strong performance on IMAX screens. While Creed III will continue to benefit from those factors this weekend (including holding onto IMAX screens), the film
should still experience some typical second weekend slowing, especially with there being some overlap between the potential audiences for both Creed III and Scream VI. Back in 2018, Creed II declined 53.2 percent in its
second weekend to gross $16.64 million. That hold was coming off of a deflated opening weekend gross from Creed II opening on a Wednesday, but even with that in mind, Creed III could be in store for a fairly similar second weekend
percentage hold this weekend. A sharp, but understandable 55.5 percent decline would transfer into a healthy $26.0 million second place take for Creed III this weekend. That would also likely move the film just past the
$100 million domestic mark on Sunday. |
| This weekend also sees the release of Sony's 65. The sci-fi action film was directed by Scott Beck and Bryan Woods and stars Adam Driver, Ariana Greenblatt and Chloe Coleman. 65 will be playing in
3,405 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 4PM. In a different situation, there might be more overall interest in 65 this weekend, but unfortunately it looks like the film is going to get lost in the middle
of this month's higher-profile films, including both Scream VI and Creed III this weekend. Due in part to this weekend's competition, potential for 65 will be further limited this weekend by various higher priced
premium screens going to Scream VI and Creed III instead. Look for 65 to debut in third place with $10.1 million. |
| Meanwhile, Disney's Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania, Universal's Cocaine Bear and Lionsgate's Jesus Revolution could find themselves fairly bunched together further down in this weekend's box office rankings. Last
weekend saw Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania fall 59.9 percent to take second with $12.81 million, Cocaine Bear decrease 52.1 percent to place in third with $11.14 million and Jesus Revolution decline a solid 46.4 percent to claim fifth with $8.51 million. This
weekend could see Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania decline 48.5 percent to place in fourth with $6.6 million, Cocaine Bear decrease 41.6 percent to follow closely behind in fifth with $6.5 million and Jesus Revolution slow
just 30.6 percent to take sixth place with $5.9 million. |
| Also opening in wide release this weekend is Focus' Champions. The sports comedy was directed by Bobby Farrelly, stars Woody Harrelson and is a remake of the 2018 Spanish film Campeones. Champions is playing in 3,028 locations and has Thursday preview shows beginning
at 7PM. Critical reviews for Champions have been mixed and overall buzz surrounding the film appears to be rather limited. Champions could start out in seventh place this weekend with $3.6 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 11 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Scream VI (Paramount) |
$44.0 M | $44.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Creed III (MGM) |
$26.0 M | $100.3 M | -55% | 2 |
| 3 | 65 (Sony / Columbia) |
$10.1 M | $10.1 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania (Disney) |
$6.6 M | $197.6 M | -48% | 4 |
| 5 | Cocaine Bear (Universal) |
$6.5 M | $52.0 M | -42% | 3 |
| 6 | Jesus Revolution (Lionsgate) |
$5.9 M | $40.3 M | -31% | 3 |
| 7 | Champions (Focus) |
$3.6 M | $3.6 M | NEW | 1 |
| 8 | Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney / 20th Century) |
$2.6 M | $674.6 M | -29% | 13 |
| 9 | Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - To the Swordsmith Village (Crunchyroll / Aniplex) |
$2.4 M | $15.0 M | -76% | 2 |
| 10 | Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal / DreamWorks Animation) |
$1.7 M | $179.7 M | -38% | 12 |
| 11 | Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre (Lionsgate) |
$1.6 M | $5.9 M | -49% | 2 |
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