Weekend Box Office Predictions
March 3 - March 5, 2023
Published on March 2, 2023 at 5:30PM Pacific |
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| As we head into what should be a strong month of March at the box office, MGM's Creed III is set to debut in first place this weekend. The third film in the Creed series was directed by and stars Michael B. Jordan and also stars
Tessa Thompson and Jonathan Majors. Unlike the first two Creed films, Creed III does not feature Sylvester Stallone, but that doesn't appear to be having a negative impact on anticipation for Creed III. Creed III is playing in a wide 4,007 locations
this weekend and will be playing on IMAX screens. Thursday previews for Creed III start at 7PM and the film will receive an additional boost from having had early access screenings on Wednesday, as well as early IMAX shows on Monday. Creed III should also receive a
boost from its strong critical reviews. Back in November of 2018, Creed II opened with $56.01 million over its first five days, with $35.57 million of that total coming from the three-day weekend frame. Without the midweek opening for Creed III to deflate weekend
grosses, the film's three-day opening weekend is likely to come in higher than that of Creed II. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Creed III will start with a healthy $44.5 million this weekend. |
| Disney's Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania took first place last weekend with $31.96 million, but fell a concerning 69.9 percent in the process. Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania hasn't been able to stabilize thus far and this weekend will
also see the film lose its IMAX locations to Creed III, which won't help matters either. A sharp 57.8 percent decline would transfer into a weekend take of $13.5 million for Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania, which would likely be good enough for second place this weekend. |
| Also arriving in theatres this weekend is Crunchyroll and Aniplex's Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba -To the Swordsmith Village-. The release features three episodes of the popular Demon Slayer animated series. Back in April of 2021,
Demon Slayer the Movie: Mugen Train surprised with a break-out debut of $21.23 million. As a fairly last-minute release, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba -To the Swordsmith Village- isn't expected to match the opening weekend success of
Demon Slayer the Movie and unlike Demon Slayer the Movie, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba -To the Swordsmith Village- won't have the benefit of Thursday preview shows. With that said, there appears to be significant interest in
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba -To the Swordsmith Village- this weekend, part of which could be due to more built-in front-loading this time around. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba -To the Swordsmith Village- potentially opening higher than the
$9.34 million debut of One Piece Film Red this past October feels very reasonable. Look for Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba -To the Swordsmith Village- to start out with $12.5 million this weekend to take third place for the frame. |
| Last weekend saw Universal's Cocaine Bear and Lionsgate's Jesus Revolution both significantly exceed consensus expectations with respective second and third place starts of $23.26 million and
$15.88 million. Furthermore, both films have been displaying solid initial holding power thus far (Cocaine Bear actually moved into first place on Wednesday with $1.55 million), which could transfer into solid second weekend holds for both.
Cocaine Bear could decline 48.4 percent to place in fourth with $12.0 million, while Jesus Revolution (which received a perfect A+ rating on CinemaScore) could decrease 43.3 percent to round out this weekend's top five with $9.0 million. That potential second weekend hold
for Jesus Revolution would be even stronger than it appears, given that the film's opening weekend performance was inflated from very strong Wednesday early access shows. |
| Further down on this weekend's chart, Disney and 20th Century's Avatar: The Way of Water could decrease only 25.9 percent to place in sixth with $3.6 million, Lionsgate's release of the long delayed
Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre could debut in seventh with a modest $3.2 million (from 2,168 locations) and Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Puss in Boots: The Last Wish could decline just 27.2 percent to follow closely behind in eighth with $3.0 million.
Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre (which was previously scheduled to be released by STXfilms), was directed by Guy Ritchie and features an ensemble cast that includes Jason Statham, Aubrey Plaza, Josh Hartnett, Cary Elwes,
Bugzy Malone and Hugh Grant. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 8 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Creed III (MGM) |
$44.5 M | $44.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania (Disney) |
$13.5 M | $187.6 M | -58% | 3 |
| 3 | Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba -To the Swordsmith Village- (Crunchyroll / Aniplex) |
$12.5 M | $12.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Cocaine Bear (Universal) |
$12.0 M | $42.2 M | -48% | 2 |
| 5 | Jesus Revolution (Lionsgate) |
$9.0 M | $30.8 M | -43% | 2 |
| 6 | Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney / 20th Century) |
$3.6 M | $670.6 M | -26% | 12 |
| 7 | Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre (Lionsgate) |
$3.2 M | $3.2 M | NEW | 1 |
| 8 | Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal / DreamWorks Animation) |
$3.0 M | $177.4 M | -27% | 11 |
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