Weekend Box Office Predictions
February 24 - February 26, 2023
Published on February 23, 2023 at 5:45PM Pacific |
| Disney's Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania will look to lead the box office for a second consecutive frame this weekend. Last weekend the latest installment of the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) debuted
with respective three-day and four-day grosses of $106.11 million and $120.39 million. While Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania experienced relatively solid initial daily holds during its opening weekend, the film's midweek grosses this
week have been concerning going forward. In addition, Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania has received mixed critical reviews and while the film is no doubt going over better with audiences than it has with critics,
Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania doesn't look to be going over as well with audiences in comparison to most other MCU films, given the film's B rating on CinemaScore. Over the past couple years, a number of films within the MCU have
experienced a second weekend decline in the high-sixty percent range (Black Widow, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Thor: Love and Thunder) and it appears that
Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania could be headed for a similar percentage decline this weekend. A decrease of 68.4 percent would transfer into a second weekend take of $33.5 million for Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania. |
| This weekend's widest new release is Universal's Cocaine Bear. The Elizabeth Banks directed dark comedy features an ensemble cast that includes Keri Russell, O'Shea Jackson Jr., Alden Ehrenreich,
Brooklynn Prince, Matthew Rhys, and the late Ray Liotta. Cocaine Bear is playing in 3,534 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. There is a decent amount of pre-release buzz for Cocaine Bear among
online movie fans, due in part to the film being inspired by a true incident. At the same time, excitement for Cocaine Bear likely won't be as high among more mainstream audiences, which could lead to the film playing more like a
front-loaded sequel this weekend, despite not being a sequel. On the average, critical reviews for Cocaine Bear have been good, but not great. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Cocaine Bear will debut in second place this weekend with $16.5 million. |
| Also opening in wide release this weekend is Lionsgate's Jesus Revolution. The faith-based film was directed by Jon Erwin and Brent McCorkle and stars Joel Courtney, Kelsey Grammer, Jonathan Roumie and
Kimberly Williams-Paisley. Jesus Revolution is playing in 2,475 locations this weekend, has Thursday preview shows beginning at 6PM and also had early access screenings on Wednesday. Initial critical reviews for
Jesus Revolution have been mixed, but faith-based films often prove to be critic-proof at the box office. Jon Erwin, along with his brother Andrew Erwin (who was a producer for Jesus Revolution), have a long box office history
with faith-based audiences and should help Jesus Revolution get off to a solid start this weekend. Look for Jesus Revolution to debut in third with $9.2 million. |
| Meanwhile, Disney and 20th Century's Avatar: The Way of Water and Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Puss in Boots: The Last Wish should continue to display strong holding power this weekend. Last
weekend over the three-day frame, Avatar: The Way of Water declined a slim 9.2 percent to take in $6.55 million, while Puss in Boots: The Last Wish decreased an even slimmer 4.3 percent to gross $5.34 million. This weekend
Avatar: The Way of Water could decrease 19.1 percent to take fourth with $5.3 million and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish could decline a very similar 19.4 percent to follow in fifth with $4.3 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 8 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania (Disney) |
$33.5 M | $168.5 M | -68% | 2 |
| 2 | Cocaine Bear (Universal) |
$16.5 M | $16.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | Jesus Revolution (Lionsgate) |
$9.2 M | $9.2 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney / 20th Century) |
$5.3 M | $666.0 M | -19% | 11 |
| 5 | Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal / DreamWorks Animation) |
$4.3 M | $173.6 M | -19% | 10 |
| 6 | Magic Mike's Last Dance (Warner Bros.) |
$3.0 M | $23.2 M | -45% | 3 |
| 7 | Knock at the Cabin (Universal) |
$2.4 M | $34.4 M | -40% | 4 |
| 8 | 80 For Brady (Paramount) |
$2.0 M | $36.6 M | -47% | 4 |
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