4-Day Weekend Box Office Predictions
February 17 - February 20, 2023
Published on February 16, 2023 at 5:45PM Pacific |
| This weekend sees the arrival of Disney's Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania in theatres. The latest installment of the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) and third film in the Ant-Man series was directed by Peyton Reed and
features a cast that includes Paul Rudd, Evangeline Lilly, Jonathan Majors, Kathryn Newton, Bill Murray, Michelle Pfeiffer and Michael Douglas. Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania is playing in 4,345 locations this weekend, will be playing on premium
screens (including IMAX screens) and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. The previous Ant-Man film, Ant-Man and The Wasp opened with $75.81 million back in July of 2018 and went on to finish its domestic run with $216.65 million. As the next
sequel in the series, Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania is likely to be more front-loaded than its predecessor was. In addition, there is extra anticipation for Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania thanks in part to Majors' role as Kang the Conqueror and to the
direction the film will help take the MCU going forward. And after the recent success of Avatar: The Way of Water, the 3D element of Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania has been pushed as well, which is likely to provide a bit of an extra box office boost. |
| Unfortunately, some of the positive momentum for Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania is likely to be slowed by the film's mixed (and poorer than anticipated) critical reviews. On top of that, the
Ant-Man character just isn't as popular an many of the other Avengers in the MCU to begin with. All things considered; Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania could be headed for respective three-day and four-day starts of
$101.0 million and $115.0 million. That three-day start would represent the third largest opening weekend ever for the month of February (behind only 2018's Black Panther and 2016's Deadpool). |
| Meanwhile, it could be a close three-way race for a very distant second place this weekend between Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Disney and 20th Century's
Avatar: The Way of Water and last weekend's top film, Warner's Magic Mike's Last Dance. In fact, it wouldn't be surprising to see the three films finish in different orders over the three-day and four-day frames. |
| Family films typically hold up very well over Presidents' Day weekend, so Puss in Boots: The Last Wish could decrease a slim 8.6 percent over the three-day weekend to take in $5.1 million and could gross
$6.8 million over the four-day frame for second place (which would represent a 21.9 percent increase over last weekend's $5.58 million three-day gross). Avatar: The Way of Water will take a hit from losing the remainder of its
IMAX screens this weekend, so the blockbuster sequel could decline 29.3 percent over the three-day weekend to gross $5.1 million and could take in $6.4 million over the four-day frame for third place
(which would be down 11.3 percent from last weekend's $7.22 million three-day gross). And while Magic Mike's Last Dance displayed early significant front-loading last weekend, the film will get a boost this weekend from seeing
its location count more than double (Magic Mike's Last Dance will be playing in 3,034 locations this weekend, in comparison to 1,496 locations last weekend). With that in mind, Magic Mike's Last Dance could decrease
33.8 percent over the three-day weekend to gross $5.5 million and could take in $6.3 million over the four-day frame (which would be a 24.1 percent decline from last weekend's $8.31 million start). |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, Paramount's 80 For Brady could take fifth with respective three-day and four-day grosses of $4.1 million and $4.8 million, Universal's
Knock at the Cabin could follow in sixth with respective three-day and four-day grosses of $3.4 million and $4.0 million and Paramount's Titanic (25 Year Anniversary) re-issue (which is already losing some of its locations this weekend), could
place in seventh with respective three-day and four-day grosses of $3.0 million and $3.6 million. |
| Also opening in theatres this weekend is Open Road and Briarcliff's Marlowe. The neo-noir film (which opened on Wednesday), was directed by Neil Jordan and stars Liam Neeson, Diane Kruger and Jessica Lange. Marlowe could be
headed for respective three-day and four-day weekend grosses of $1.9 million and $2.2 million, and a six-day start of $3.0 million. |
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4-Day predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania (Disney) |
$115.0 M | $115.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal / DreamWorks Animation) |
$6.8 M | $167.6 M | +22% | 9 |
| 3 | Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney / 20th Century) |
$6.4 M | $657.3 M | -11% | 10 |
| 4 | Magic Mike's Last Dance (Warner Bros.) |
$6.3 M | $18.8 M | -24% | 2 |
| 5 | 80 For Brady (Paramount) |
$4.8 M | $33.5 M | -17% | 3 |
| 6 | Knock at the Cabin (Universal) |
$4.0 M | $30.4 M | -26% | 3 |
| 7 | Titanic (25 Year Anniversary) (Paramount) |
$3.6 M | $13.8 M | -46% | 2 |
| 8 | Marlowe (Open Road / Briarcliff) |
$2.2 M | $3.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 9 | Missing (Sony / Screen Gems) |
$2.0 M | $30.0 M | -22% | 5 |
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