Weekend Box Office Predictions
February 3 - February 5, 2023
Published on February 2, 2023 at 3:30PM Pacific |
| After leading the weekend box office for seven consecutive frames, Avatar: The Way of Water will see its reign at the box office end this weekend
with the release of Universal’s Knock at the Cabin. The latest film from director M. Night Shyamalan is an R-rated thriller that features Dave Bautista, Jonathan Groff, Ben Aldridge,
Nikki Amuka-Bird, Kristen Cui, Abby Quinn and Rupert Grint. Knock at the Cabin is opening in 3,643 locations this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. On the average,
critical reviews for Knock at the Cabin have been good, but not great. Shyamalan’s previous film, Old, debuted with $16.85 million back in July of 2021 and it appears likely that
Knock at the Cabin will open higher than Old did. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Knock at the Cabin will take first place this weekend with an estimated $21.0 million. |
| Also opening in wide release this weekend is Paramount’s 80 For Brady. The Kyle Marvin PG-13 rated sports comedy stars Lily Tomlin, Jane Fonda, Rita Moreno, Sally Field and
Tom Brady (as himself). Brady was also a producer on the film. 80 For Brady is opening in a very wide 3,912 locations this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM
(in additional to several days of earlier sneak previews). Critical reviews for 80 For Brady have been mixed, but more so positive than negative. The timing of this weekend’s release for
80 For Brady couldn’t be much better given Tom Brady’s recent retirement announcement and Super Bowl LVII next weekend. 80 For Brady could debut in second place this weekend with an
estimated $15.0 million. |
| Last weekend Disney and 20th Century's Avatar: The Way of Water declined just 20.7 percent to gross $15.97 million, while Universal and
DreamWorks Animation’s Puss in Boots: The Last Wish decreased a slim 11.1 percent for a $10.50 million take. Given the amount of new product entering the
marketplace this weekend, both films are likely to experience larger percentage declines this weekend than last weekend, more so for Avatar: The Way of Water. A 32.4 percent decline would transfer
into $10.8 million for Avatar: The Way of Water this weekend, while a 14.3 percent decrease would give Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $9.0 million this weekend. |
| Two event releases are also likely to make a significant impact at the box office this weekend. Fathom Events is releasing The Chosen Season 3: Finale on Thursday, while
Trafalgar Releasing released BTS: Yet to Come in Cinemas on Wednesday. Back in November, The Chosen Season 3: Episode 1 & 2 started out with $8.73 million over three days. With a
four-day frame this time around; The Chosen Season 3: Finale could start out with $7.0 million over the three-day weekend and $9.5 million over its first four days of release. This past March,
BTS Permission to Dance on Stage - Seoul: Live Viewing grossed an estimated $6.84 million from just one day of release. With a five-day opening frame, grosses for
BTS: Yet to Come in Cinemas will be much more spread out. BTS: Yet to Come in Cinemas could gross $5.0 million over the three-day weekend and $8.5 million over its first five days of release. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 11 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Knock at the Cabin (Universal) |
$21.0 M | $21.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | 80 For Brady (Paramount) |
$15.0 M | $15.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney / 20th Century) |
$10.8 M | $636.4 M | -32% | 8 |
| 4 | Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal / DreamWorks Animation) |
$9.0 M | $152.4 M | -14% | 7 |
| 5 | The Chosen Season 3: Finale (Fathom Events / Angel Studios) |
$7.0 M | $9.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 6 | BTS: Yet to Come in Cinemas (Trafalgar Releasing) |
$5.0 M | $8.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 7 | A Man Called Otto (Sony / Columbia) |
$4.5 M | $53.3 M | -32% | 6 |
| 8 | M3GAN (Universal) |
$3.4 M | $87.2 M | -46% | 5 |
| 9 | Missing (Sony / Screen Gems) |
$3.3 M | $22.6 M | -42% | 3 |
| 10 | Pathaan (Yash Raj Films) |
$2.4 M | $14.0 M | -65% | 2 |
| 11 | Plane (Lionsgate) |
$2.2 M | $28.9 M | -42% | 4 |
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