Weekend Box Office Predictions
January 20 - January 22, 2023
Published on January 19, 2023 at 5:45PM Pacific |
| Disney and 20th Century's Avatar: The Way of Water will look to make it six consecutive weekends at the top of the domestic box office this weekend. Last weekend Avatar: The Way of Water declined just
28.4 percent over the three-day frame to gross $32.82 million (the film grossed $39.88 million over the four-day holiday frame). Last year at this time Spider-Man: No Way Home decreased 30.3 percent in its sixth weekend to take in
$14.01 million. Avatar: The Way of Water could be in store for a similar percentage decline this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Avatar: The Way of Water will decrease 31.5 percent for a weekend take of
$22.5 million. That would represent the fourth largest sixth weekend gross of all-time and would move Avatar: The Way of Water just past the $600 million domestic mark. |
| Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Puss in Boots: The Last Wish held up exceptionally well over the Martin Luther King holiday frame last weekend, as the film increased 6.8 percent over the three-day weekend
to gross $14.47 million (the film grossed $18.92 million over the four-day frame). The computer animated sequel continues to benefit from strong word of mouth and the lack of new competition for family audiences. Given its recent
momentum; Puss in Boots: The Last Wish is likely in store for another terrific hold this weekend. Look for Puss in Boots: The Last Wish to decline a slim 17.1 percent this weekend to move into second place with $12.0 million. |
| Fellow Universal release M3GAN had a very solid second weekend hold for a horror film, as last weekend saw the film decrease 39.8 percent over the three-day frame to place in second with $18.31 million
(the film's four-day gross was $21.67 million). Thanks in part to film's success at the box office; yesterday Universal announced that M3GAN 2.0 will be arriving in theatres on January 17, 2025. As for this weekend, M3GAN could
be in store for a similar percentage hold as last weekend. A decrease of 37.7 percent would transfer into a third place take of $11.4 million for M3GAN this weekend. |
| Sony's A Man Called Otto is coming off of a very strong expansion into wide release, which saw the film place in fourth over the holiday frame with respective three-day and four-day grosses of $12.83 million
and $15.40 million. Strong word of mouth and the film playing well with both older moviegoers and moviegoers in more rural areas should all contribute to A Man Called Otto having a lengthy run going forward. The film has also been holding
up very nicely during the midweek this week. A Man Called Otto could slow only 23.6 percent this weekend to remain in fourth place with $9.8 million. |
| Opening wide this weekend is fellow Sony release Missing. The PG-13 rated thriller from Screen Gems was directed by Nicholas D. Johnson and Will Merrick and stars Storm Reid, Joaquim de Almeida, Ken Leung
and Nia Long. Missing is opening in 3,025 locations this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 4PM. On the average, critical reviews for the film have been very good. Missing is being presented as a
thematic sequel (with different characters) to 2018's Searching. While there may not be as much overall demand for Missing as there was for Searching, Missing will have a huge location advantage in comparison to
Searching, which played in 1,207 locations during its first weekend of major release. With that in mind, Missing could open higher than the $6.07 million Searching grossed that weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that
Missing will debut in fifth this weekend with $7.3 million. |
| Last weekend Lionsgate's Plane opened just ahead of the higher end of consensus expectations with respective three-day and four-day fifth place grosses of $10.27 million and $11.84 million. The action-thriller has
gone over fairly well with critics and looks to be doing the same with audiences. Plane could decrease a solid 42.5 percent this weekend to place in sixth with $5.9 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 8 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney / 20th Century) |
$22.5 M | $600.7 M | -31% | 6 |
| 2 | Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal / DreamWorks Animation) |
$12.0 M | $126.8 M | -17% | 5 |
| 3 | M3GAN (Universal) |
$11.4 M | $74.7 M | -38% | 3 |
| 4 | A Man Called Otto (Sony / Columbia) |
$9.8 M | $36.0 M | -24% | 4 |
| 5 | Missing (Sony / Screen Gems) |
$7.3 M | $7.3 M | NEW | 1 |
| 6 | Plane (Lionsgate) |
$5.9 M | $20.0 M | -43% | 2 |
| 7 | House Party (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$2.0 M | $7.4 M | -50% | 2 |
| 8 | Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney) |
$1.4 M | $451.8 M | -43% | 11 |
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