4-Day Weekend Box Office Predictions
January 13 - January 16, 2023
Published on January 12, 2023 at 5:45PM Pacific |
| Disney and 20th Century's Avatar: The Way of Water appears set to lead the domestic box office for a fifth consecutive frame this weekend. Last weekend the James Cameron directed blockbuster sequel declined
just 32.0 percent to gross $45.84 million (which represented the second largest fourth weekend gross of all-time). Avatar: The Way of Water will continue to benefit this weekend from holding onto its higher priced premium screens
(including IMAX); though at the same time the film will continue to lose some of its non-premium showtimes this weekend. With that in mind, this weekend's three-day weekend percentage hold for Avatar: The Way of Water could be similar to
last weekend's hold. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Avatar: The Way of Water will decline 31.3 percent over the three-day frame to gross $31.5 million. That would represent the second largest fifth weekend gross of all-time (behind only the original Avatar). For
the four-day Martin Luther King Jr. holiday frame, Avatar: The Way of Water could gross $39.5 million, which would represent a 13.8 percent decrease from last weekend's three-day gross. |
| Universal's M3GAN is coming off of a stronger than expected opening weekend performance of $30.43 million. The PG-13 rated horror film held up relatively well as last weekend went on and looks to be going
over well with audiences after receiving a solid B rating on CinemaScore. The film's midweek grosses this week haven't been out of this world, but M3GAN should be a weekend-heavy film, especially given how well the film has been
performing with moviegoers under 25. M3GAN will also be helped out this weekend by holding onto a high percentage of its average showtimes per location from last weekend. Look for M3GAN to decline a solid 42.5 percent over the three-day
weekend for $17.5 million. For the four-day holiday frame, M3GAN could gross $21.5 million, which would be a 29.3 percent decrease from last weekend's three-day start. |
| Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Puss in Boots: The Last Wish continued its impressive holding power last weekend by declining a slim 19.5 percent to take third with $13.54 million. The computer animated
sequel continues to benefit from strong word of mouth and the lack of new competition for family audiences. This weekend Puss in Boots: The Last Wish will get a boost from the four-day Martin Luther King Jr. holiday frame, though the
magnitude of that boost should be limited somewhat due to showtime losses from last weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective $11.1 million three-day (down 18.0 percent) and $15.0 million four-day (up 10.8 percent) grosses for
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish this weekend. That will move the film past the $100 million domestic mark. |
| Last weekend saw Sony's A Man Called Otto exceed expectations upon expanding to platform release. The Marc Forster directed remake starring Tom Hanks grossed an encouraging $4.20 million from just 637 locations. This
weekend A Man Called Otto expands to wide release and will be playing in 3,802 locations. While last weekend's performance is no doubt a strong sign for A Man Called Otto in the big picture, when it comes to this weekend's performance, a sizable
amount of initial moviegoers having already seen the film could limit further break-out potential this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day and four-day holiday grosses of $10.9 million and $12.7 million for
A Man Called Otto this weekend. |
| This weekend also sees the release of Lionsgate's Plane. The Jean-François Richet directed action-thriller stars Gerard Butler and Mike Colter. Plane is opening in 3,023 locations this weekend and
has Thursday preview shows beginning at 6PM. While there isn't a lot of buzz surrounding Plane, critical reviews for the film have been solid and Butler has a long history of films over-performing at the box office in relation to pre-release buzz. With
that in mind, Plane should have a presence at the box office this weekend. Look for Plane to take off with respective three-day and four-day holiday openings of $9.5 million and $11.0 million this weekend. |
| Disney's Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will likely get a nice boost from the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend. Respective three-day and four-day grosses of $3.2 million and $4.3 million would place the
film in sixth place this weekend. Meanwhile, Warner Bros. and New Line's House Party is opening semi-wide this weekend. The Calmatic directed comedy remake starring Tosin Cole and Jacob Latimore could debut in seventh place with respective
modest three-day and four-day starts of $2.9 million and $3.4 million. |
| This weekend will also see the semi-wide release of Third Day Productions' The Devil Conspiracy in 925 locations and the moderate / semi-wide release of IFC Midnight and Shudder's Skinamarink in 692 locations. BoxOfficeReport
isn't making an official prediction for either horror film this weekend. |
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4-Day predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney / 20th Century) |
$39.5 M | $571.3 M | -14% | 5 |
| 2 | M3GAN (Universal) |
$21.5 M | $60.0 M | -29% | 2 |
| 3 | Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal / DreamWorks Animation) |
$15.0 M | $108.0 M | +11% | 4 |
| 4 | A Man Called Otto (Sony / Columbia) |
$12.7 M | $18.9 M | +202% | 3 |
| 5 | Plane (Lionsgate) |
$11.0 M | $11.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 6 | Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney) |
$4.3 M | $451.2 M | +22% | 10 |
| 7 | House Party (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$3.4 M | $3.4 M | NEW | 1 |
| 8 | The Whale (A24) |
$1.9 M | $11.2 M | +23% | 6 |
| 9 | Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony / TriStar) |
$1.7 M | $22.5 M | -30% | 4 |
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