Weekend Box Office Predictions
January 6 - January 8, 2023
Published on January 5, 2023 at 4:00PM Pacific |
| After leading the domestic box office for the past three weeks, Disney and 20th Century's Avatar: The Way of Water appears set to lead the domestic box office for a fourth consecutive frame this weekend. Even
taking the holidays into account, Avatar: The Way of Water is coming off of terrific hold last weekend, which saw the film increase 6.4 percent over the three-day frame to gross $67.41 million (the film grossed $88.82 million over the four-day holiday frame).
Avatar: The Way of Water has continued to hold up well on Tuesday and Wednesday this week and has grossed $464.96 million through Wednesday. Strong word of mouth, some natural relative back-loading for a film of its size and
continued demand to see the film on a higher priced premium screen are all helping contribute to strong holding power for Avatar: The Way of Water. Back in 2017, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story declined 55.5 percent in its
fourth weekend, while in 2010 the original Avatar decreased just 26.6 percent in its fourth weekend. Avatar: The Way of Water could be looking at a fourth weekend percentage decrease near the middle of those two declines. Look for
Avatar: The Way of Water to decline 38.4 percent this weekend for a fourth weekend gross of $41.5 million. That would move the film well past the $500 million domestic mark and would represent the fourth largest fourth weekend
gross of all-time. |
| This weekend sees the release of Universal's M3GAN. The PG-13 rated sci-fi horror film from Blumhouse was directed by Gerard Johnstone and stars Allison Williams and Violet McGraw. M3GAN was produced by Jason Blum and
James Wan. The film is opening in a wide 3,509 locations this weekend, looks to be receiving a relatively high amount of average showtimes per location and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. There is a fairly high level of
buzz around M3GAN, thanks in part to the film's meme-generating trailer. Very strong critical reviews, the film's teenage friendly PG-13 rating and serving as this weekend's top alternative to Avatar: The Way of Water should all
help generate walk-up business for M3GAN this weekend. Traditionally, horror films also have a strong history of breaking out at the box office in early January. And while the film only opened in three international markets this past
weekend, the film's $1.7 million debut in Mexico and $1.4 million launch in France both suggest that M3GAN could potentially perform similarly to Smile at the box office (which opened with $22.61 million domestically). BoxOfficeReport is predicting
that M3GAN will debut in second place with $26.0 million this weekend, before potentially holding up well for a horror film in the weeks ahead. |
| On the heels of a slower than expected start over Christmas weekend, Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Puss in Boots: The Last Wish has been displaying exceptional holding power thus far. Last weekend the
well-received computer animated sequel increased 35.3 percent over the three-day frame to gross $16.82 million (the film grossed $22.62 million over the four-day frame). Last year Sing 2 grossed $11.60 million in its third weekend
(which also fell the weekend after New Year's weekend) and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish could be headed for a similar third weekend gross this weekend. A decline of just 30.4 percent would transfer into a third place take of $11.7 million for
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish this weekend. |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, last weekend's three-day frame saw Disney's Black Panther: Wakanda Forever increase a massive 47.3 percent to take third with $5.15 million, while Sony's
Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody declined a respectable 16.4 percent to place in fourth with $3.93 million. This weekend Black Panther: Wakanda Forever could decline a very solid 33.9 percent to place in fourth with
$3.4 million and Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody could decrease a respectable 41.5 percent to follow in fifth place with $2.3 million. |
| After opening in platform release last weekend, Sony's A Man Called Otto will expand to moderate release this weekend. The Marc Forster directed remake stars Tom Hanks. Last weekend
A Man Called Otto grossed a so-so $56,257 over the three-day frame from 4 locations in New York and Los Angeles (the film's four-day start was $68,892). A Man Called Otto will be playing in 637 locations this weekend, before
playing in an estimated 3,500 locations next weekend. The film will also have Thursday preview shows beginning at 2PM this weekend. Critical reviews for A Man Called Otto have been mixed, but more so positive than negative. That
could limit potential for the film a bit, especially this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that A Man Called Otto will place in sixth this weekend with $1.8 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney / 20th Century) |
$41.5 M | $513.5 M | -38% | 4 |
| 2 | M3GAN (Universal) |
$26.0 M | $26.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal / DreamWorks Animation) |
$11.7 M | $86.4 M | -30% | 3 |
| 4 | Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney) |
$3.4 M | $445.4 M | -34% | 9 |
| 5 | Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony / TriStar) |
$2.3 M | $19.6 M | -41% | 3 |
| 6 | A Man Called Otto (Sony / Columbia) |
$1.8 M | $1.9 M | +3,100% | 2 |
| 7 | Babylon (Paramount) |
$1.2 M | $13.2 M | -54% | 3 |
| 8 | The Whale (A24) |
$1.1 M | $8.1 M | -20% | 5 |
| 9 | Violent Night (Universal) |
$1.0 M | $49.7 M | -53% | 6 |
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