4-Day Weekend Box Office Predictions
December 30, 2022 - January 2, 2023
Published on December 29, 2022 at 2:30PM Pacific |
| With no new wide releases this weekend and last weekend's grosses being negatively impacted by winter storm Elliott, the marketplace in general should experience strong holds over the New Year's four-day holiday frame. |
| With that said, Disney and 20th Century's Avatar: The Way of Water will obviously have no problem remaining in first place this weekend. Last weekend Avatar: The Way of Water grossed $95.61 million over the Christmas four-day holiday frame.
Avatar: The Way of Water has been holding up very well during the midweek this week; after zooming past the $300 million domestic mark on Tuesday (as well as the $1 billion global mark), the film added an estimated $20.4 million on Wednesday
to bring the film's thirteen-day domestic total to an estimated $337.8 million. Strong word of mouth and continued demand to watch the film in theatres (and on a premium screen) will both help out Avatar: The Way of Water this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that
Avatar: The Way of Water will decline just 18.4 percent from last weekend's holiday frame, for a four-day take of $78.0 million this holiday weekend. |
| Last weekend saw Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Puss in Boots: The Last Wish start out in second over the four-day frame with $19.25 million, which brought the film's six-day start
(including earlier sneak previews) to $26.15 million. While Puss in Boots: The Last Wish was off to a softer than expected start last weekend, the film has been displaying strong initial holding power.
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish has gone over well with critics and audiences alike (the film received a strong A rating on CinemaScore) and typically animated family films hold up well over New Year's weekend. Look for
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish to hold up very well this weekend by increasing 9.1 percent over last weekend's four-day frame for a second place four-day gross of $21.0 million. |
| Disney's Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is coming off of a very nice hold over Christmas weekend, as the blockbuster sequel placed in fourth over the four-day frame with $5.51 million.
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever has also been holding up very well during the midweek this week. The poorer than expected performances of both Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody and Babylon may also be
providing a bit of a boost to Black Panther: Wakanda Forever at the moment, with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever clearly being one of the current top alternative choices to Avatar: The Way of Water.
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever could increase a terrific 28.9 percent over last weekend's four-day frame for a third place four-day take of $7.1 million. |
| As for the mentioned Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody and Babylon, both films failed to make an impact at the box office over Christmas weekend. Sony's Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody started out in
third over the four-day frame with an estimated $6.75 million, while Paramount's Babylon had to settle for a fifth place four-day start of only $4.85 million. Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody clearly looks to
be going over better with audiences than Babylon has; I Wanna Dance with Somebody earned a strong A rating on CinemaScore, in comparison to a lackluster C+ rating for Babylon. At the same time,
I Wanna Dance with Somebody may have a bit more built-in front-loading than Babylon has, due to fans of Houston. As for this weekend's four-day holiday frame, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody could decline
20.0 percent to take fourth place with $5.4 million and Babylon could decrease 27.9 percent to follow in fifth with $3.5 million. |
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4-Day predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney / 20th Century) |
$78.0 M | $435.7 M | -18% | 3 |
| 2 | Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal / DreamWorks Animation) |
$21.0 M | $65.3 M | +9% | 2 |
| 3 | Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney) |
$7.1 M | $440.2 M | +29% | 8 |
| 4 | Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony / TriStar) |
$5.4 M | $16.0 M | -20% | 2 |
| 5 | Babylon (Paramount) |
$3.5 M | $10.9 M | -28% | 2 |
| 6 | Violent Night (Universal) |
$3.1 M | $48.5 M | -34% | 5 |
| 7 | The Whale (A24) |
$1.9 M | $6.2 M | +22% | 4 |
| 8 | The Menu (Disney / Searchlight) |
$1.30 M | $36.3 M | +26% | 7 |
| 9 | The Fabelmans (Universal) |
$1.25 M | $12.3 M | +13% | 8 |
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