4-Day Weekend Box Office Predictions
December 23 - December 26, 2022
Published on December 21, 2022 at 9:15PM Pacific |
| After last weekend's first place debut of $134.10 million, Disney and 20th Century's Avatar: The Way of Water will look to easily remain in first place over Christmas weekend. While
Avatar: The Way of Water opened below expectations, the film already looks to be stabilizing during the midweek; the film's respective Monday and Tuesday grosses of $16.26 million and $18.29 million where in the same neighborhood
as the $17.60 million and $17.58 million respective first Monday and Tuesday grosses of 2016's Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (after Rogue One opened with $155.08 million). In addition to Monday and Tuesday's healthy daily
grosses for Avatar: The Way of Water, word of mouth for Avatar: The Way of Water appears to be strong given the film's A rating on CinemaScore. Avatar: The Way of Water will also be helped out this weekend by
continuing to play on higher priced 3D, IMAX and PLF screens. |
| In general, it must also be mentioned that overall grosses for Christmas weekend could be prevented from reaching their full potential due in part to the massive Arctic cold front that will be affecting much of
the country, in part from Christmas Eve falling on Saturday this year, and in part to Christmas weekend theatrical moviegoing demand among more casual moviegoers likely still not having returned to pre-pandemic levels. BoxOfficeReport
is predicting that Avatar: The Way of Water will gross $95.0 million over the four-day Friday to Monday holiday weekend, with $64.0 million of that figure coming from the traditional three-day weekend. The film's predicted
four-day performance would represent a 29.2 percent decline from last weekend's three-day start. |
| The weekend's highest grossing new release is expected to be Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Puss in Boots: The Last Wish. The computer animated follow-up to 2011's Puss in Boots was directed
by Joel Crawford and features the vocal talent of Antonio Banderas and Salma Hayek. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish is opening on Wednesday in a wide 4,099 locations. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish didn't have Tuesday preview shows, but
the film did have early sneak previews back on Saturday, November 26. Critical reviews for the film have been very strong. Internationally, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish has grossed $13.7 million through this past Sunday, from
25 select (mostly smaller) international markets. |
| Back in 2011, Puss in Boots opened with $34.08 million, before going on to finish its domestic run with $149.26 million. With a six-day launch, initial grosses for Puss in Boots: The Last Wish will be much more
spread out this time around. Look for Puss in Boots: The Last Wish to open with $26.0 million over the four-day weekend (with $17.0 million of that total coming from the traditional three-day weekend) and for the film to start
out with $36.5 million over its first six days (including the mentioned early sneak preview grosses from last month). |
| This weekend will also see the release of Sony's Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody. The Kasi Lemmons directed music biopic about the life of the late Whitney Houston stars Naomi Ackie as Houston.
I Wanna Dance with Somebody is opening in an estimated 3,300+ locations this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 2PM. On the average, critical reviews for I Wanna Dance with Somebody have been more so
negative than positive, but thanks in part to interest among fans of Houston, the film is likely to be fairly critic proof at the box office, at least initially. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that
Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody will debut in third place with $15.3 million over the four-day frame, with $11.0 million of that gross coming from the traditional three-day frame. |
| Paramount's Babylon will begin its theatrical run on Friday as well. The Damien Chazelle directed film set in late 1920s Hollywood features an ensemble cast that includes Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, Diego Calva, Jean Smart, Jovan Adepo, and
Li Jun Li. Babylon is opening in an estimated 3,200 locations this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. Despite Babylon being an awards season hopeful, and the presence of Pitt, Robbie and director Chazelle; a film set in
Hollywood nearly 100 years ago is likely to be a tough sell at the box office. Surprisingly mixed critical reviews and the film's lengthy 188-minute run-time won't help matters either for Babylon this weekend. Babylon could start out in fourth place with
respective three-day and four-day grosses of $8.0 million and $11.2 million. |
| Disney's Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Universal's Violent Night should both continue to have a presence at the box office over Christmas weekend. Last weekend
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever took second with $5.35 million, while Violent Night followed closely behind in third with $5.05 million. With the extra day, this weekend's four-day grosses could be fairly similar to last
weekend's three-day grosses for both films. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is likely to remain ahead of Violent Night in the rankings this weekend, especially on Boxing Day (Monday). BoxOfficeReport is predicting
respective three-day and four-day grosses of $3.6 million and $5.3 million for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (for fifth place) and respective three-day and four-day grosses of $3.3 million and $4.5 million for
Violent Night (for sixth place). |
| After grossing roughly $0.60 million through twelve days of platform release from just 6 locations in New York and Los Angeles, A24's The Whale is expanding to moderate release on Wednesday in an estimated 600 locations.
The Whale was directed by Darren Aronofsky and stars Brendan Fraser. Mixed critical reviews haven't appeared to have had a negative impact on the platform performance of The Whale, thanks in part to the awards season buzz around
Fraser's performance. The Whale could take in $3.1 million over the four-day weekend (with $2.1 million of that total coming from the three-day weekend); with a potential six-day gross of $4.3 million. |
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4-Day predictions for this weekend's top 7 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney / 20th Century) |
$95.0 M | $294.5 M | -29% | 2 |
| 2 | Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal / DreamWorks Animation) |
$26.0 M | $36.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony / TriStar) |
$15.3 M | $15.3 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Babylon (Paramount) |
$11.2 M | $11.2 M | NEW | 1 |
| 5 | Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney) |
$5.3 M | $428.1 M | -1% | 7 |
| 6 | Violent Night (Universal) |
$4.5 M | $43.1 M | -11% | 4 |
| 7 | The Whale (A24) |
$3.1 M | $4.9 M | +1,725% | 3 |
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