Weekend Box Office Predictions
December 16 - December 18, 2022
Published on December 15, 2022 at 3:45PM Pacific |
| Thirteen years after the release of Avatar, Disney and 20th Century's long awaited and highly anticipated sequel, Avatar: The Way of Water finally arrives in theatres this weekend. The James Cameron
directed sci-fi adventure event film stars Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldaña, Sigourney Weaver, Stephen Lang and Kate Winslet. Avatar: The Way of Water is opening in 4,202 locations this weekend and will be playing on 3D, IMAX and other PLF screens. Even
with the film's 192-minute run-time, Avatar: The Way of Water will still be receiving a high amount of showtimes per location this weekend, thanks in part to the overall lack of competition in the current marketplace. Given the
theatrical event nature of the film, a high percentage of moviegoers will want to watch Avatar: The Way of Water in a premium format, which will greatly help the film's box office performance this weekend and beyond. Thursday preview
shows for Avatar: The Way of Water are starting early at 3PM. On the average, critical reviews for the film have been good, but not great. Given the enormous price-tag of Avatar: The Way of Water; it's obviously extremely
important for the film to get off to a strong start this weekend, both domestically and internationally. |
| On Wednesday, Avatar: The Way of Water started out its international run with an estimated $15.8 million from 15 select international markets
(including $3.3 million in South Korea, $2.9 million in France, $2.5 million in Germany and $1.6 million in Italy). According to Disney, that was 124 percent higher than the opening day grosses of Avatar in like-for-like markets
and 13 percent ahead of the opening day grosses of the much more recent Jurassic World: Dominion in like-for-like markets. Both comparisons look to be very positive early indicators for the domestic performance of
Avatar: The Way of Water. Back in December of 2009, Avatar opened with $77.03 million domestically, before going on to display historic holding power to gross $760.51 million during its initial run
(including grosses from the 2010 Special Edition version of the film). As a sequel with more built-in front-loading and the aid of thirteen years of ticket price inflation, Avatar: The Way of Water roughly doubling the opening
weekend performance of Avatar feels reasonable. At the same time, it's still important to remember that the film's run-time and pre-Christmas December release date will still lead to some relative back-loading for an event film of
this size. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Avatar: The Way of Water will debut with $156.0 million this weekend. That would represent the third largest opening weekend of 2022 and the fifth largest December opening weekend
performance of all-time (just ahead of 2016's Rogue One: A Star Wars Story). |
| Meanwhile, it looks likely to be a very close race for a very distant second place this weekend between Universal's Violent Night and Disney's Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Last weekend,
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever declined 35.9 percent to remain in first place with $11.23 million, while Violent Night decreased a similar 35.1 percent to hold steady in second place with $8.72 million. With
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever losing its IMAX screens to Avatar: The Way of Water this weekend and Violent Night likely to continue to benefit from the lead-up to Christmas, Violent Night should hold up better than
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever this weekend and could even have the slight edge for second place over the frame. A respectable 42.7 percent decline for Violent Night would transfer into a $5.0 million take this weekend and a
sharp 56.4 percent decrease would give Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $4.9 million for the frame. |
| Disney's Strange World and Disney and Searchlight's The Menu both held up well last weekend, as Strange World declined just 25.6 percent to gross $3.78 million, while The Menu decreased a
slim 20.3 percent to gross $2.77 million. With Avatar: The Way of Water entering the marketplace, both films should experience larger percentage declines this weekend, but still have very solid holds given the circumstances.
Strange World could decrease 36.5 percent from last weekend to gross $2.4 million, while The Menu could decline 35.0 percent for a weekend take of $1.8 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 7 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney / 20th Century) |
$156.0 M | $156.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Violent Night (Universal) |
$5.0 M | $35.0 M | -43% | 3 |
| 3 | Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney) |
$4.9 M | $418.5 M | -56% | 6 |
| 4 | Strange World (Disney) |
$2.4 M | $34.0 M | -37% | 4 |
| 5 | The Menu (Disney / Searchlight) |
$1.8 M | $32.2 M | -35% | 5 |
| 6 | The Fabelmans (Universal) |
$0.85 M | $8.8 M | -27% | 6 |
| 7 | Devotion (Sony / Columbia) |
$0.80 M | $18.6 M | -61% | 4 |
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