Weekend Box Office Predictions
December 9 - December 11, 2022
Published on December 8, 2022 at 2:30PM Pacific |
| One week before the release of Disney and 20th Century's highly anticipated Avatar: The Way of Water, this weekend will no doubt serve as a quiet before the storm. Fellow Disney release
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is expected to remain in first place this weekend, to lead the domestic box office for a fifth consecutive frame. Last weekend, due in part to the post-Thanksgiving weekend frame,
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever experienced a sharp 61.5 percent decline to gross $17.54 million. The film (and holdovers in general) should stabilize significantly this weekend, especially with this weekend being the last frame
before Avatar: The Way of Water enters the marketplace. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will decline just 29.3 percent for a first place take of $12.4 million. That would bring the total
domestic gross for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever to the brink of the $411.33 million final domestic gross of fellow 2022 MCU film Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. |
| On the heels of last weekend's stronger than expected $13.45 million second place start, Universal's Violent Night will look to remain in second place this weekend. Violent Night appears to be going over
well with audiences, as the film received a solid B+ rating on CinemaScore and has also been displaying healthy daily percentage holds thus far. On the average, critical reviews for Violent Night have also been solid. In general, holding
power for Violent Night should also be helped out by the continued lead-up to the Christmas holiday. Look for Violent Night to have a very nice second weekend hold by declining 33.8 percent to gross $8.9 million. |
| Disney's Strange World is coming off of a second weekend performance which saw the film decline a sharp 58.2 percent to gross $5.09 million. While Strange World has had a disappointing box office
performance, the computer animated film is still likely to stabilize this weekend, especially with no new family films entering the marketplace. Strange World could decline 27.2 percent this weekend to take third place with
$3.7 million. |
| Last weekend Disney and Searchlight's The Menu took fourth place with $3.47 million, while Sony's Devotion followed in fifth with $2.73 million. Both films should hold up very well this weekend to
continue to claim fourth and fifth place. A slim 19.3 percent decrease would transfer into a fourth place take of $2.8 million for The Menu, while a 22.9 percent decline would place Devotion in fifth with $2.1 million. |
| This weekend will see both Universal's The Fabelmans and Focus' Spoiler Alert receive significant expansions. In its fifth frame, The Fabelmans will be playing in 973 locations
(an increase of 335 locations from last weekend). After last weekend's so-so platform launch of $82,983 from 6 locations in New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco; Spoiler Alert will be expanding to moderate / semi-wide release
this weekend in 782 locations. The Fabelmans could increase 14.2 percent over last weekend to gross $1.45 million, while Spoiler Alert could take in a modest $0.90 million this weekend. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 8 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney) |
$12.4 M | $411.1 M | -29% | 5 |
| 2 | Violent Night (Universal) |
$8.9 M | $26.9 M | -34% | 2 |
| 3 | Strange World (Disney) |
$3.7 M | $30.6 M | -27% | 3 |
| 4 | The Menu (Disney / Searchlight) |
$2.8 M | $29.1 M | -19% | 4 |
| 5 | Devotion (Sony / Columbia) |
$2.1 M | $17.1 M | -23% | 3 |
| 6 | The Fabelmans (Universal) |
$1.45 M | $7.6 M | +14% | 5 |
| 7 | Black Adam (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$1.25 M | $166.8 M | -20% | 8 |
| 8 | Spoiler Alert (Focus) |
$0.90 M | $1.0 M | +985% | 2 |
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