Weekend Box Office Predictions
November 25 - November 27, 2022
Predictions published on November 23, 2022 at 7:15AM Pacific |
| Wednesday Morning Tuesday Box Office Update: |
| After easily leading the domestic box office over each of the past two weekends, Disney's Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is expected to comfortably lead the domestic box office once again this weekend. Last
weekend the blockbuster sequel declined 63.3 percent for a second weekend take of $66.48 million. On Tuesday, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever had a very strong daily hold to gross $9.49 milllion and in the process surpassed the
$300 million domestic mark. With its second weekend decline in the past, continued strong word of mouth, the film holding onto its IMAX screens this weekend and aid from the Thanksgiving holiday frame,
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever should stabilize in a big way this weekend. Look for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever to decline 34.6 percent from last weekend, for a three-day weekend gross of $43.5 million. Over the
five-day holiday frame; Black Panther: Wakanda Forever could be headed for $62.5 million. |
| Disney will also look to take second place over Thanksgiving weekend with the release of Strange World. The pricey sci-fi computer animated film from Walt Disney Animation Studios was directed by Don Hall and
features the vocal talent of Jake Gyllenhaal, Dennis Quaid, Jaboukie Young-White, Gabrielle Union and Lucy Liu. On the average, critical reviews for Strange World have been good, but not great. In the past, similarly themed films
from Walt Disney Animation Studios such as 2001's Atlantis: The Lost Empire, 2002's Treasure Planet and 2007's Meet the Robinsons have struggled to varying degrees at the box office, and unfortunately it appears that
Strange World may be headed down the same path. On Tuesday, Strange World started out with an estimated $0.80 million from preview shows that began at 6PM. That was significantly below the $1.50 million Tuesday preview gross of
Encanto last Thanksgiving weekend (Encanto went on to gross $40.57 million in its first five days, including a three-day opening weekend of $27.21 million). Prior to the release of the film's Tuesday preview gross,
BoxOfficeReport predicted respective three-day weekend and five-day grosses of $17.2 million and $25.5 million for Strange World. |
| The weekend's most anticipated new release is arguably Netflix's Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. The Rian Johnson directed follow-up to 2019's highly successful Knives Out sees the return of Daniel Craig
and features a new supporting cast that includes Edward Norton, Janelle Monáe, Kathryn Hahn, Leslie Odom Jr., Kate Hudson and Dave Bautista. Critical reviews for Glass Onion have been very strong. However, Glass Onion is
only receiving a one-week moderate theatrical run in an estimated 600+ locations; prior to being released via streaming on Netflix next month on December 23. Obviously, the moderate release will limit this weekend's box office potential for
Glass Onion in a big way. And as mentioned earlier today, official grosses for Glass Onion are not even expected to be reported by Netflix. With that said, Glass Onion is likely in store for a very strong
per-location performance over Thanksgiving weekend. The film's one-week engagement should push theatrical demand for the film even further, though at the same time the film's overall showtimes count will limit just how high
Glass Onion can go this weekend (and not having Tuesday preview shows won't help in that regard either). BoxOfficeReport is predicting a three-day weekend gross of $7.0 million for Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery and a
five-day holiday start of $10.3 million. |
| Meanwhile, Sony's Devotion could open in the same neighborhood as Glass Onion this weekend. While Devotion is being released in a much wider 3,405 locations, some of that (but not all) screen count
advantage will be evened out by Devotion looking to have significantly fewer daily showtimes per location than Glass Onion on the average this weekend. Overall interest in Devotion also looks to be fairly limited and the
decision to open the film only a few weeks after Black Panther: Wakanda Forever likely won't help matters. Devotion; a war film set during the Korean War, was directed by J. D. Dillard and stars Jonathan Majors and Glen Powell.
Similar to Strange World, critical reviews for Devotion have been good but not great. On Tuesday Devotion started out with an estimated $0.615 million from preview shows that began early at 2PM. Prior to the release of the film's
Tuesday preview gross, BoxOfficeReport predicted respective three-day weekend and five-day grosses of $6.5 million and $9.8 million for Devotion. |
| After debuting in second place with a solid $9.00 million last weekend, Disney and Searchlight's The Menu could be looking to round out this weekend's top five. The Menu has gone over very well with
critics and the film looks to be going over fairly well with audiences after receiving a B rating on CinemaScore. The Menu could also get a bit of a boost this weekend from this weekend's new releases as a whole looking weaker than usual
by Thanksgiving weekend standards. A 36.7 percent decline would give The Menu $5.7 million over the three-day weekend and the horror dark comedy could be headed for $8.3 million over the five-day frame. |
| United Artists Releasing and MGM's Bones and All expands to 2,727 locations this weekend. The Luca Guadagnino directed romantic horror film stars Taylor Russell, Timothée Chalamet and Mark Rylance.
Bones and All has gone over well with critics. Last weekend Bones and All started out in platform release with $0.121 million from just 5 locations in New York and Los Angeles, for a per-location average of $24,201. On
Tuesday, Bones and All grossed an estimated $0.345 million from preview shows that began at 7PM, which points towards the film being a modest performer this weekend. Prior to the release of the film's Tuesday preview gross,
BoxOfficeReport predicted respective three-day weekend and five-day grosses of $4.0 million and $6.2 million for Bones and All. |
| Also receiving an expansion this weekend is Universal's The Fabelmans. After playing in platform release in 4 locations in New York and Los Angeles over the past twelve days, on Wednesday
The Fabelmans will expand to 638 locations. The critically acclaimed Steven Spielberg directed film stars Michelle Williams, Paul Dano, Seth Rogen, Gabriel LaBelle and Judd Hirsch, and is considered one of this
year's awards season favorites. The film's performance will obviously be limited this weekend by its moderate location count and in general, awards season fare has continued to struggle at the box office this fall upon expanding to
wider release. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that The Fablemans will take in respective three-day weekend and five-day grosses of $2.9 million and $4.0 million for the Thanksgiving holiday frame. |
| Wednesday Morning Predictions Update: |
| Due to holiday time constraints, there isn't a traditional predictions article being included with this week's weekend predictions chart. A box office update including Tuesday preview grosses for Wednesday's new films
will appear instead later in the day today. Apologies for any inconvenience and Happy Thanksgiving. Also, please note that while official grosses for Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery are not expected to be reported by Netflix, the film has still been included in this weekend's predictions. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 12 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney) |
$43.5 M | $365.0 M | -35% | 3 |
| 2 | Strange World (Disney) |
$17.2 M | $25.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) |
$7.0 M | $10.3 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Devotion (Sony / Columbia) |
$6.5 M | $9.8 M | NEW | 1 |
| 5 | The Menu (Disney / Searchlight) |
$5.7 M | $19.5 M | -37% | 2 |
| 6 | Bones and All (United Artists / MGM) |
$4.0 M | $6.3 M | +3,206% | 2 |
| 7 | Black Adam (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$3.1 M | $162.9 M | -33% | 6 |
| 8 | The Fabelmans (Universal) |
$2.9 M | $4.3 M | +3,132% | 3 |
| 9 | The Chosen Season 3: Episode 1 & 2 (Fathom Events / Angel Studios) |
$2.7 M | $16.4 M | -69% | 2 |
| 10 | Ticket to Paradise (Universal) |
$2.0 M | $65.3 M | -37% | 6 |
| 11 | She Said (Universal) |
$1.5 M | $4.9 M | -32% | 2 |
| 12 | Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (Sony / Columbia) |
$1.3 M | $45.8 M | -32% | 8 |
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