Weekend Box Office Predictions
November 18 - November 20, 2022
Published on November 17, 2022 at 2:00PM Pacific |
| Disney's Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will look to continue to comfortably lead the box office in its second weekend of release. Last weekend, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever delivered the
thirteenth largest opening weekend performance of all-time with $181.34 million. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever has gone over well with critics and also looks to be going over very well with audiences after receiving a
strong A rating on CinemaScore. Back in 2018, Black Panther declined just 44.7 percent in its second weekend to gross a massive $111.66 million (which represented the fourth largest second weekend gross of all-time). As a
sequel, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is expected to experience a significantly larger second weekend decline than its predecessor did. In general, Marvel films have been having larger second weekend percentage declines
since the re-opening of domestic theatres and next weekend being Thanksgiving weekend is also likely to deflate this weekend's performance for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever a bit, before inflating next weekend's performance. Look
for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever to decline 61.4 percent this weekend for a second weekend take of $70.0 million. That would represent the third largest second weekend performance since the re-opening of domestic theatres. |
| Disney will also look to take second place this weekend with the release of Searchlight's The Menu. The horror dark comedy was directed by Mark Mylod and stars Ralph Fiennes, Anya Taylor-Joy and
Nicholas Hoult. The Menu will be playing in 3,211 locations this weekend and will Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM
(in addition to select Early Access shows earlier in the week). Recently, Disney and 20th Century had success with fellow horror film Barbarian, which debuted with $10.54 million back in September
(before going on to gross $40.81 million domestically thus far). The Menu could be in store for a similar opening weekend performance as Barbarian, especially since like Barbarian, The Menu has also
gone over very well with critics. The Menu could also be helped out a bit by this November's schedule outside of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever being weaker than usual by November standards. BoxOfficeReport is
predicting that The Menu will debut with $11.5 million this weekend. |
| Fathom Events' release of Angel Studios' The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 & 2 could be in store for a third place performance this weekend. The faith-based event screening, which is receiving a
wide release, includes the first two episodes of the upcoming third season of The Chosen streaming television series. Last December, Fathom Events released Christmas with The Chosen: The Messengers on a Wednesday in
1,700 locations. That resulted in a three-day weekend gross of $4.25 million and a five-day start of $9.15 million. As a Friday release, The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 & 2 should be able to have a larger three-day weekend
gross than Christmas with The Chosen: The Messengers had, but it may be difficult to match the five-day gross of Christmas with The Chosen: The Messengers in just three days. The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 & 2 could
start out with a healthy $7.3 million this weekend. |
| Warner Bros. and New Line's Black Adam and Universal's Ticket to Paradise are coming off of respective second place and third place grosses of $8.05 million and $5.90 million. Last weekend
Black Adam was down a sharp, but understandable 55.9 percent, while Ticket to Paradise declined a very solid 31.0 percent. With the opening weekend of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever now in the past, both
Black Adam and Ticket to Paradise are likely to hold up better this weekend than they did last weekend, especially Black Adam. Look for Black Adam to decline just 29.2 percent from last weekend to take
fourth place with $5.7 million and for Ticket to Paradise to decrease only 25.4 percent to place in fifth with $4.4 million. |
| Also opening in wide release this weekend is Universal's She Said. The Maria Schrader directed drama about The New York Times investigation of Harvey Weinstein's history of sexual abuse, stars
Carey Mulligan, Zoe Kazan and Patricia Clarkson. She Said will be screening 2,022 locations this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. On the average, critical reviews for
She Said have been good and the film is an awards season hopeful. However, it's no secret that in general more serious adult fare has struggled at the theatrical box office since re-opening and that trend is likely to
continue with She Said this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that She Said will debut in sixth place this weekend with $2.9 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney) |
$70.0 M | $290.9 M | -61% | 2 |
| 2 | The Menu (Disney / Searchlight) |
$11.5 M | $11.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 & 2 (Fathom Events / Angel Studios) |
$7.3 M | $7.3 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Black Adam (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$5.7 M | $158.2 M | -29% | 5 |
| 5 | Ticket to Paradise (Universal) |
$4.4 M | $62.8 M | -25% | 5 |
| 6 | She Said (Universal) |
$2.9 M | $2.9 M | NEW | 1 |
| 7 | Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (Sony / Columbia) |
$2.2 M | $43.5 M | -31% | 7 |
| 8 | Smile (Paramount) |
$1.20 M | $104.6 M | -49% | 8 |
| 9 | The Banshees of Inisherin (Disney / Searchlight) |
$1.15 M | $7.6 M | -30% | 5 |
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