Weekend Box Office Predictions
November 11 - November 13, 2022
Published on November 10, 2022 at 1:45PM Pacific |
| This weekend Disney's Black Panther: Wakanda Forever makes its highly anticipated arrival in theatres. The sequel to 2018's Black Panther was directed by Ryan Coogler and stars Letitia Wright, Lupita Nyong'o,
Danai Gurira, Winston Duke, Dominique Thorne, Tenoch Huerta and Angela Bassett. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will be playing in 4,396 locations this weekend, will also be playing on IMAX screens and will have Thursday preview shows
beginning at 3PM. Back in February of 2018, Black Panther started out its historic run with respective three-day and four-day weekend debuts of $202.00 million and $242.16 million. Due in part to Black Panther having caught
lightning in a bottle at the box office, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever isn't expected to open as high as its predecessor did. With that said, there is obviously still an extremely high amount of opening weekend demand for
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. In addition to Black Panther: Wakanda Forever representing the first sequel to one of the highest grossing films of all-time, the film has additional importance due to the tragic passing of
Black Panther star Chadwick Boseman back in 2020. |
| In comparison to other Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) films this year, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is expected to open well above the $144.17 million start of Thor: Love and Thunder and much closer
to the $187.42 million launch of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever could even potentially open higher than Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness to deliver the largest domestic
opening weekend of 2022 thus far, though that isn't quite a given due in part to Thursday previews for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever being expected to be lower than those of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. Either way,
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is likely to be significantly less front-loaded than Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness was, due in part to the film's strong critical reviews, likely strong word of mouth and the
rest of this November's theatrical line-up looking weaker than usual by typical November standards. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will debut with a massive $186.0 million this weekend. That would easily surpass the $158.07 million start of 2013's The Huger Games: Catching Fire to set a new opening weekend record for the month of November. |
| After leading the box office for each of the past three weekends, Warner Bros. and New Line's Black Adam is set to move into a distant second place this weekend. Last weekend, Black Adam stabilized very
nicely, by declining just 33.5 percent to take in $18.27 million. A significant factor in last weekend's hold was no doubt moviegoers who wanted to catch Black Adam (or catch it again) before Black Panther: Wakanda Forever entered
the marketplace. With Black Panther: Wakanda Forever now in the marketplace, Black Adam is obviously likely to take a major hit this weekend (before potentially re-stabilizing next weekend. A sharp 55.1 percent decline would
transfer into $8.2 million for Black Adam this weekend. That would move the film past the $150 million domestic mark. |
| Universal's Ticket to Paradise is coming off of a terrific third weekend hold, which saw the romantic comedy decline a slim 13.2 percent to take third with $8.55 million. Ticket to Paradise received a boost
last weekend from getting a 374 location count bump and in turn, this weekend the film will be losing 433 locations. Between the location count change and the added presence of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,
Ticket to Paradise is very unlikely to hold up as well as it did last weekend, but the film could still be in store for another strong hold this weekend. Look for Ticket to Paradise to decline just 28.6 percent to hold steady in
third this weekend with $6.1 million. |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, Sony's Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile could decline only 22.8 percent to take fourth with $2.6 million, Paramount's Smile (which passed the $100 million domestic mark on Wednesday) could decrease 44.8 percent to follow in fifth with
$2.2 million, Lionsgate's Prey for the Devil could fall a sizable 51.2 percent to place in sixth with $1.9 million, Crunchyroll's One Piece Film Red
(which will be losing its IMAX screens to Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) could tumble 80.2 percent to land in seventh with $1.85 million and Disney and Searchlight's well-received The Banshees of Inisherin could ease just
24.6 percent to place in eighth with $1.55 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 8 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney) |
$186.0 M | $186.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Black Adam (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$8.2 M | $150.9 M | -55% | 4 |
| 3 | Ticket to Paradise (Universal) |
$6.1 M | $56.5 M | -29% | 4 |
| 4 | Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (Sony / Columbia) |
$2.6 M | $40.3 M | -23% | 6 |
| 5 | Smile (Paramount) |
$2.2 M | $102.7 M | -45% | 7 |
| 6 | Prey for the Devil (Lionsgate) |
$1.9 M | $16.9 M | -51% | 3 |
| 7 | One Piece Film Red (Crunchyroll) |
$1.85 M | $13.2 M | -80% | 2 |
| 8 | The Banshees of Inisherin (Disney / Searchlight) |
$1.55 M | $5.6 M | -25% | 4 |
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