Weekend Box Office Predictions
November 4 - November 6, 2022
Published on November 3, 2022 at 9:30AM Pacific |
| In the relative quiet before Disney's highly anticipated Black Panther: Wakanda Forever enters the marketplace next weekend on November 11; this weekend Warner Bros. and New Line's Black Adam appears
set to lead the box office for a third consecutive frame. Black Adam is coming off of a sizable, but reasonable 59.0 percent second weekend decline, which led to a $27.47 million take for the film last weekend. In addition to
continuing to benefit from good word of mouth, Black Adam is likely to further stabilize this weekend due in part to moviegoers who will be looking to catch the film (or catch it again), before the mentioned Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
opens next weekend. Holdovers in general could also benefit this weekend from last weekend's grosses likely being deflated a bit by early Halloween activities and from this weekend's openers and expansions being lower profile than
usual for the first weekend of November. At the same time, this weekend's potential stabilization for Black Adam is likely to be limited at least somewhat by the film losing its IMAX screens to One Piece Film Red. Back in 2019,
Shazam! declined 32.7 percent in its third weekend to gross $16.46 million (the weekend before Avengers: Endgame opened). Black Adam likely won't hold up quite that well this weekend, but the film's third weekend
gross could be very similar to that of Shazam! Look for Black Adam to decline a solid 39.9 percent to take in $16.5 million this weekend. |
| This weekend will see the release of Crunchyroll's One Piece Film Red. The latest theatrical installment of the long-running anime series was directed by Gorō Taniguchi. One Piece Film Red is being
released in an estimated 2,400+ locations this weekend and will be playing on IMAX screens. Thursday preview shows for the film begin at 5PM. One Piece Film Red was released in Japan in August and has gone on to easily become
the highest grossing film of the series in Japan. Domestically, distributor Crunchyroll (and previously Funimation), has seen continued success in recent years with its release of anime films. In the past year, Crunchyroll's
Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero debuted with $21.13 million and Jujutsu Kaisen 0 started out with $18.01 million. There doesn't appear to be as much domestic pre-release buzz around One Piece Film Red as there was
around each of those two films, but One Piece Film Red is still likely to open comfortably ahead of the $6.26 million start of My Hero Academia: World Heroes' Mission just over a year ago. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that One Piece Film Red
will debut in second place this weekend with $11.3 million. |
| Last weekend saw Universal's Ticket to Paradise decline a solid 40.3 percent to hold steady in second place with $9.85 million. With continued strong word of mouth, the film holding onto most of its
showtimes this weekend and the lower-profile than usual openers for the first weekend of November, Ticket to Paradise is highly likely to hold up even better this weekend. A decline of just 25.9 percent would transfer into
$7.3 million for Ticket to Paradise this weekend. |
| It could be a very close race for fourth place between horror film holdovers Smile and Prey for the Devil. Last weekend, Lionsgate's Prey for the Devil debuted on the lower end of expectations
with a third place take of $7.19 million, while Paramount's Smile declined a solid 35.9 percent to follow in fourth with $5.43 million. Smile could have the slight edge between the two films this weekend, as a
31.9 percent decline would give Smile $3.7 million for the frame. Prey for the Devil, which looks to be receiving an average reception from horror fans, could decrease a sizable 49.9 percent for $3.6 million in its second frame. |
| After two weeks of platform release, Disney and Searchlight's critically acclaimed The Banshees of Inisherin expands to moderate / semi-wide release this weekend in an estimated 800+ locations. The
Martin McDonagh directed film stars Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson and is an awards season hopeful. This past weekend, The Banshees of Inisherin grossed $0.535 million from just 58 locations, for a per-location average of
$9,227 for the frame. Over the past several weeks, platform releases have had trouble maintaining momentum as they expand into moderate / semi-wide release, but The Banshees of Inisherin could benefit this weekend from likely
having at least a bit more mainstream appeal than other recent platform releases. The Banshees of Inisherin could take sixth place this weekend with a promising $2.6 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 11 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Black Adam (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$16.5 M | $135.2 M | -40% | 3 |
| 2 | One Piece Film Red (Crunchyroll) |
$11.3 M | $11.3 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | Ticket to Paradise (Universal) |
$7.3 M | $45.5 M | -26% | 3 |
| 4 | Smile (Paramount) |
$3.7 M | $98.8 M | -32% | 6 |
| 5 | Prey for the Devil (Lionsgate) |
$3.6 M | $13.3 M | -50% | 2 |
| 6 | The Banshees of Inisherin (Disney / Searchlight) |
$2.6 M | $3.6 M | +386% | 3 |
| 7 | Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (Sony / Columbia) |
$2.2 M | $35.4 M | -20% | 5 |
| 8 | Till (United Artists / Orion) |
$2.1 M | $6.8 M | -23% | 4 |
| 9 | Halloween Ends (Universal) |
$1.4 M | $63.4 M | -66% | 4 |
| 10 | Terrifier 2 (Iconic Events Releasing) |
$1.25 M | $9.9 M | -34% | 5 |
| 11 | Armageddon Time (Focus) |
$1.20 M | $1.3 M | +1,608% | 2 |
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