Weekend Box Office Predictions
October 28 - October 30, 2022
Published on October 27, 2022 at 10:15AM Pacific |
| After last weekend's solid debut of $67.00 million, Warner Bros. and New Line's Black Adam will have no problem remaining in first place at the domestic box office this weekend. While critical reviews for
Black Adam have been mostly negative, the latest installment of the DC Extended Universe has been largely critic-proof thus far and also looks to be going over significantly better with audiences than it has with critics, given the
film's solid B+ CinemaScore and healthy 90 percent Verified Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes. Black Adam also displayed good initial daily holding power for a comic book film over opening weekend, due in part to the film
playing just as much, if not more so, as a Dwayne Johnson vehicle. With that said, films starring Johnson still tend to have sizable second weekend declines. Also of note is 2019's Shazam!, which declined 54.3 percent in its
second weekend to gross $24.45 million. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Black Adam decline a bit more than that this weekend. Black Adam could decrease a sharp 59.0 percent this weekend for a second weekend take of
$27.5 million. |
| Meanwhile, Universal's Ticket to Paradise appears likely to remain in second place this weekend. Last weekend saw the romantic comedy starring George Clooney and Julia Roberts open a bit higher than had
been expected with a promising start of $16.51 million. Like Black Adam, Ticket to Paradise also looks to be going over significantly better with audiences than it has with critics, as the film received a healthy A- rating on
CinemaScore and currently has an 88 percent Verified Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes. Ticket to Paradise skewing quite heavily towards older moviegoers could also provide some built-in back-loading for the film in general. Look for
Ticket to Paradise to decline 37.0 percent this weekend for a second weekend gross of $10.4 million. |
| The weekend's widest new release is Lionsgate's Prey for the Devil. The Daniel Stamm directed horror film starring Jacqueline Byers is being launched in an estimated 2,800 locations this weekend. Thursday
preview shows for the film start at 6PM. While overall interest in Prey for the Devil looks to be fairly modest, there is typically an audience for exorcism themed films. Prey for the Devil is also likely to be helped out
this weekend by its PG-13 rating and the Halloween holiday frame. It wouldn't be a surprise if Prey for the Devil is quite front-loaded beyond the Halloween holiday, but as for this weekend Prey for the Devil could start out
in third place with a respectable $8.1 million. |
| Fellow horror films Smile and Halloween Ends are likely to respectively follow in fourth and fifth place over Halloween weekend. Last weekend, Paramount's Smile declined just 32.6 percent in
its fourth weekend to take third with $8.47 million, while Universal's Halloween Ends tumbled 80.0 percent in its second weekend to place in fourth with $8.00 million. Smile has displayed terrific holding power thus far, so
the well-received film is likely to have a very strong hold over Halloween weekend. A slim decline of 16.2 percent would transfer into $7.1 million for Smile this weekend. Last year over Halloween weekend, Halloween Kills declined
39.5 percent in its third weekend (to gross $8.74 million). It's likely that Halloween Ends will experience a larger percentage decrease this weekend, so look for the film to decline 46.3 percent for a weekend take of
$4.3 million. |
| After two weeks of platform release, United Artists Releasing and Orion's Till expands to wide release this weekend (in an estimated 2,000 locations). The critically acclaimed drama about Mamie Till,
the mother of Emmett Till, was directed by Chinonye Chukwu and stars Danielle Deadwyler and Jalyn Hall. Till is an awards season hopeful, with Deadwyler's performance in particular being a strong contender for Best Actress. This past
weekend Till grossed $0.364 million from 104 locations, for a per-location average of $3,495. As for this weekend, Till could place in sixth with $3.4 million. |
| This weekend will also see Iconic Events Releasing, Cinedigm and Bloody Disgusting's Terrifier 2 receive a major expansion. Last weekend the buzz-heavy, low-budget unrated horror film increased
70.4 percent to take in $1.76 million (from 755 locations). This weekend Terrifier 2 will be playing in an estimated 1,500+ locations. Between the film's location count increase, continued organic buzz and the Halloween weekend
frame, Terrifier 2 could experience another significant box office increase this weekend. A similar 70.8 percent increase would transfer into $3.0 million for Terrifier 2 this weekend. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Black Adam (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$27.5 M | $110.9 M | -59% | 2 |
| 2 | Ticket to Paradise (Universal) |
$10.4 M | $34.1 M | -37% | 2 |
| 3 | Prey for the Devil (Lionsgate) |
$8.1 M | $8.1 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Smile (Paramount) |
$7.1 M | $94.4 M | -16% | 5 |
| 5 | Halloween Ends (Universal) |
$4.3 M | $60.8 M | -46% | 3 |
| 6 | Till (United Artists / Orion) |
$3.4 M | $4.2 M | +835% | 3 |
| 7 | Terrifier 2 (Iconic Events Releasing) |
$3.0 M | $8.9 M | +71% | 4 |
| 8 | Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (Sony / Columbia) |
$2.7 M | $32.4 M | -36% | 4 |
| 9 | TÁR (Focus) |
$1.4 M | $2.9 M | +180% | 4 |
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