Weekend Box Office Predictions
October 21 - October 23, 2022
Published on October 20, 2022 at 9:45AM Pacific |
| Warner Bros. and New Line's Black Adam is set to easily lead the box office upon arriving in theatres this weekend. The latest installment of the DC Extended Universe was directed by Jaume Collet-Serra and stars
Dwayne Johnson as Black Adam. The film also features Aldis Hodge, Noah Centineo, Quintessa Swindell and Pierce Brosnan as members of the Justice Society of America (JSA). Black Adam is being released ultra-wide this weekend in
an estimated 4,400+ locations and will be playing on IMAX screens. Thursday preview shows for the film begin at 3PM. It should also be noted that Black Adam carries a very expensive price-tag, so it is important for the film to get
off to a good start this weekend. |
| Relatively speaking, Black Adam isn't the most well-known of DC Comics characters and with that in mind Black Adam could end up playing a bit more like a Dwayne Johnson film and a bit less like a typical
comic book adaptation, which could lead to less built-in front-loading towards opening weekend. In comparison to previous DCEU opening weekends, with the added star power of Johnson, Black Adam is likely to open higher than the
$53.51 million start of 2019's Shazam! ($56.83 million including earlier sneak previews) and could open closer to the $67.87 million start of 2018's Aquaman ($72.57 million including earlier sneak previews). Critical reviews for
Black Adam have been mixed, and while Black Adam is likely to be largely critic-proof at the box office this weekend, the film's critical reviews could help prevent Black Adam from having more of a break-out performance. BoxOfficeReport
is predicting that Black Adam will debut with $65.5 million this weekend, which would represent the fifth largest opening weekend performance ever for the month of October. |
| Also arriving in domestic theatres this weekend is Universal's Ticket to Paradise. The romantic comedy was directed by Ol Parker and stars George Clooney and Julia Roberts. Ticket to Paradise is
opening in an estimated 3,500 locations this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. Critical reviews for Ticket to Paradise have been mixed, but on the average have been somewhat more positive than
negative. Ticket to Paradise has already been playing internationally for several weeks, with the film having grossed a very solid $72.6 million internationally as of this past Sunday. It feels as though there is less interest
in Ticket to Paradise domestically than there has been internationally, but the film's international performance could be a sign of Ticket to Paradise potentially going over better with audiences than it has with critics and
also potentially holding up well in the weeks ahead. As for this weekend, BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Ticket to Paradise will start out in a distant second place with $13.5 million. |
| As for this weekend's horror holdovers, it could prove to be a close race for third place between Paramount's Smile and Universal's Halloween Ends. While Halloween Ends had a huge advantage
over Smile last weekend; $40.05 million in comparison to $12.56 million, Smile will no doubt hold up far better than Halloween Ends this weekend, perhaps so much so that it moves just ahead of Halloween Ends in
this weekend's rankings. |
| Smile declined just 32.2 percent last weekend in the face of new direct competition from Halloween Ends. In the face of new competition from Black Adam, the well-received Smile could decline
a similar 30.8 percent to gross $8.7 million. That would place Smile just below the $85 million domestic mark and with the approaching Halloween holiday, Smile will have a strong chance of having an exceptional hold next weekend. |
| Last year Halloween Kills declined a very sharp 70.8 percent in its second weekend. Given that Halloween Ends had a more front-loaded opening weekend than Halloween Kills, looks to be going
over poorer with audiences, will be losing IMAX screens (a factor Halloween Kills didn't deal with) and will be facing tougher new releases than Halloween Kills dealt with in its second weekend (Dune and Ron's Gone Wrong), it appears to
be a given that Halloween Ends will experience an even sharper second weekend decline than Halloween Kills did. Look for Halloween Kills to fall 79.0 percent for a second weekend take of $8.4 million. |
| Meanwhile, Sony releases Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile and The Woman King should take fifth and sixth place this weekend. Last weekend Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile declined a very solid 35.5 percent to place in
third with $7.35 million, while The Woman King decreased only 28.5 percent to claim fourth with $3.70 million. Both films should continue to hold up well this weekend, as Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile could decrease 29.3 percent to gross
$5.2 million and The Woman King could decline 27.1 percent to take in $2.7 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 6 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Black Adam (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$65.5 M | $65.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Ticket to Paradise (Universal) |
$13.5 M | $13.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | Smile (Paramount) |
$8.7 M | $84.6 M | -31% | 4 |
| 4 | Halloween Ends (Universal) |
$8.4 M | $54.6 M | -79% | 2 |
| 5 | Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (Sony / Columbia) |
$5.2 M | $29.7 M | -29% | 3 |
| 6 | The Woman King (Sony / TriStar) |
$2.7 M | $63.7 M | -27% | 5 |
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