Weekend Box Office Predictions
October 14 - October 16, 2022
Published on October 13, 2022 at 8:15AM Pacific |
| This weekend sees the release of Universal's Halloween Ends. The follow-up to last year's Halloween Kills and final film in the recent trilogy of Halloween films sees the return of director
David Gordon Green and star Jamie Lee Curtis. As with Halloween Kills last October, Halloween Ends is being released day-and-date this weekend; theatrically in an estimated 3,800 locations and via streaming on Peacock.
Halloween Ends will be playing on IMAX screens (an advantage that Halloween Kills didn't have) and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. Last year Halloween Kills opened with $49.40 million. In comparison,
it feels that there is a bit less pre-release interest for Halloween Ends that there was for Halloween Kills. At the same time, Halloween Ends will have a few advantages that will help close a potential opening weekend gap
between the two films, including the mentioned IMAX screens, opening in a less crowded marketplace overall (though Halloween Ends will have to deal with direct competition from Smile) and receiving more average showtimes
per location than Halloween Kills did. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Halloween Ends will open with $47.5 million this weekend, which would be just below the opening weekend of Halloween Kills and just above the
$44.37 million start of fellow Universal horror film Nope back in July. |
| Paramount's Smile is coming off of an exceptional second weekend hold, which saw the horror film decline a slim 18.3 percent to stay in first place with $18.46 million. That type of second weekend hold is
extremely rare in a non-holiday situation, especially for a horror film. The much buzzed about Smile is clearly benefiting from very strong word of mouth, the continued lead-up to the Halloween holiday and from horror fans who
wanted to be sure to catch the film before Halloween Ends arrived in theatres. With the arrival of Halloween Ends, Smile is sure to lose some momentum this weekend, but even with a significant momentum loss,
Smile is still in position to have a good hold this weekend. Smile should also be helped out this weekend by holding onto a very high percentage of its average showtimes per location from last weekend. Look for Smile to
decline a very solid 36.1 percent to place in second this weekend with $11.8 million. |
| Last weekend saw Sony's Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile debut in second place with $11.40 million. While Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile did open in line with Sony's expectations, the film's start nonetheless felt
underwhelming given its very wide launch and the lack of recent competition for family audiences. Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile looks to be going over fairly well with audiences, as the film received a healthy A- rating on CinemaScore. In
general, Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile will benefit in the weeks ahead from its good word of mouth and from the continued lack of competition for family audiences. However, this weekend Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile could still experience
some slowing due in part to losing a higher percentage of its average showtimes per location than is usual for a family film in its second weekend. Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile could decline 42.1 percent this weekend for a third place
take of $6.6 million. |
| Fellow Sony release The Woman King continued to display strong holding power last weekend by declining just 24.1 percent to place in fourth with $5.18 million. With the aid of continued strong word of
mouth, The Woman King could remain in fourth place this weekend by decreasing just 30.5 percent to gross $3.6 million. That would bring the film to just under the $60 million domestic mark. |
| After debuting in third place with a disappointing $6.44 million last weekend, Disney and 20th Century's Amsterdam is likely to round out this weekend's top five. While Amsterdam looks to be going
over better with audiences than it has with critics (with a respectable B rating on CinemaScore), the film's largely negative critical reviews and loss of its IMAX screens will help lead to a sizable second weekend decline. Look for
Amsterdam to slow 53.5 percent for a weekend take of $3.0 million. |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, Warner's Don't Worry Darling could decline 40.0 percent to take sixth with $2.1 million, Disney and 20th Century's Barbarian could decrease 36.2 percent to
follow in seventh with $1.4 million and Universal's Bros could drop 44.4 percent to place in eighth with $1.2 million. Also of note is that Disney's re-issue of 20th Century's Avatar looks to be ending its theatrical run
on Thursday. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 8 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Halloween Ends (Universal) |
$47.5 M | $47.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Smile (Paramount) |
$11.8 M | $70.3 M | -36% | 3 |
| 3 | Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (Sony / Columbia) |
$6.6 M | $21.9 M | -42% | 2 |
| 4 | The Woman King (Sony / TriStar) |
$3.6 M | $59.6 M | -30% | 4 |
| 5 | Amsterdam (Disney / 20th Century) |
$3.0 M | $12.0 M | -53% | 2 |
| 6 | Don't Worry Darling (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$2.1 M | $42.2 M | -40% | 4 |
| 7 | Barbarian (Disney / 20th Century) |
$1.4 M | $39.0 M | -36% | 6 |
| 8 | Bros (Universal) |
$1.2 M | $11.1 M | -44% | 3 |
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