Weekend Box Office Predictions
October 7 - October 9, 2022
Published on October 6, 2022 at 9:30AM Pacific |
| This weekend could prove to be a very close race for first place at the domestic box office between last weekend's top film; Paramount's Smile and new Sony release Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile. |
| Paramount's Smile is coming off of a stronger than expected first place start of $22.61 million. In addition to exceeding late-rising expectations, Smile has also displayed strong initial daily
holding power for a horror film, similar to the recent Barbarian. And like Barbarian, it appears that word of mouth for Smile is stronger than the film's CinemaScore rating (a still solid B-) suggests. Smile
will also benefit this weekend from holding onto a fairly high percentage of its average showtimes per location from last weekend, from the continuing pre-Halloween season and from horror fans who will want to catch the film
(or catch it again) this weekend before Universal's Halloween Ends enters the marketplace next weekend on October 14. Barbarian fell 38.4 percent in its second weekend a few weeks back and it's looking like Smile could
have an even better second weekend percentage hold this weekend. Smile could decline just 31.4 percent this weekend for a strong second weekend haul of $15.5 million. |
| Sony's Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile will look to reenergize the theatrical family marketplace, which has been largely dormant as of late. The computer animated / live action hybrid family film was directed by
Will Speck and Josh Gordon and features Javier Bardem, Constance Wu, Winslow Fegley and the vocal talent of Shawn Mendes. Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile will be opening in an estimated 4,000+ locations this weekend and will have Thursday
preview shows beginning at 3PM. In addition to opening in a marketplace that currently has no real competition for family audiences; Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile should also appeal to fans of the children's books the film is adapted
from. With the Columbus Day, Indigenous Peoples' Day and Canadian Thanksgiving holidays on Monday, weekend grosses for Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (and the marketplace in general) will be spread out across over four days. Family films
in particular tend to experience strong Monday holds this weekend, which could be somewhat of a disadvantage for Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile in this weekend's race with Smile over the three-day frame. BoxOfficeReport is predicting
that Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile will debut with $15.3 million this weekend. The film is also likely to hold up well throughout the rest of the fall season, thanks in part to the lack of new competition for family audiences. |
| Also opening in wide release this weekend is Disney and 20th Century's Amsterdam. The David O. Russell directed comedy mystery set in the 1930s features Christian Bale, Margot Robbie and
John David Washington. The rest of the film's ensemble cast consists of a number of well-known stars, including Chris Rock, Anya Taylor-Joy, Zoe Saldaña, Mike Myers, Taylor Swift, Rami Malek, and Robert De Niro. Amsterdam will
receive a boost from playing on IMAX screens this weekend. Thursday previews for the film begin at 6PM. Given the film's director and ensemble cast, there had been some hope of Amsterdam breaking out at least somewhat at
the box office, but those hopes have been dashed thanks in part to the film's mostly (and unexpectedly) negative critical reviews. The situation for Amsterdam is a bit similar to that of Don't Worry Darling a few weeks ago,
except that Amsterdam has had significantly less pre-release buzz and anticipation around it than Don't Worry Darling did. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that that Amsterdam will start out in third place this
weekend with $8.7 million. |
| This past weekend, Warner's Don't Worry Darling and Sony's The Woman King were in a very close race for second place. While Don't Worry Darling came out just ahead
($6.85 million to $6.83 million), The Woman King held up far better last weekend by declining 38.0 percent, in comparison to a very sharp 64.6 percent drop for Don't Worry Darling. With The Woman King expected
to continue to hold up much better than Don't Worry Darling, The Woman King is set to move ahead of Don't Worry Darling in this weekend's rankings. A 25.3 percent decrease would transfer into $5.1 million for
The Woman King this weekend and a 48.9 percent decline would give Don't Worry Darling $3.5 million for the frame. |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, Universal's well received Bros. could decline a solid 42.3 percent in its second weekend to take sixth place with $2.8 million, Disney's re-release of
20th Century's Avatar (which is losing its IMAX screens this weekend) could drop 50.1 percent to land in seventh with $2.5 million and fellow Disney / 20th Century release Barbarian could re-stabilize this weekend by
declining just 25.6 percent to place in eighth with $2.1 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 8 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Smile (Paramount) |
$15.5 M | $47.9 M | -31% | 2 |
| 2 | Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (Sony / Columbia) |
$15.3 M | $15.3 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | Amsterdam (Disney / 20th Century) |
$8.7 M | $8.7 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | The Woman King (Sony / TriStar) |
$5.1 M | $54.0 M | -25% | 4 |
| 5 | Don't Worry Darling (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$3.5 M | $38.5 M | -49% | 3 |
| 6 | Bros (Universal) |
$2.8 M | $9.6 M | -42% | 2 |
| 7 | Avatar (re-issue) (Disney / 20th Century) |
$2.5 M | $23.4 M | -50% | 3 |
| 8 | Barbarian (Disney / 20th Century) |
$2.1 M | $36.4 M | -26% | 5 |
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