Weekend Box Office Predictions
September 30 - October 2, 2022
Published on September 29, 2022 at 6:15PM Pacific |
| As we exit September and head into October, Paramount's Smile is set to debut in first place at the domestic box office this weekend. The R-rated horror film was directed by Parker Finn and stars Sosie Bacon.
Smile will be opening in a wide 3,645 locations this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 7PM (in addition to select early access shows this past Tuesday). An effective trailer and marketing, good critical
reviews and the approaching Halloween season should all help Smile get off to a healthy start this weekend. Smile could also get a boost this weekend from the rest of this weekend's overall marketplace looking
relatively slow. The past two weekends have seen respective openings of $19.05 million for The Woman King and $19.35 million for Don't Worry Darling and it appears likely that Smile will open in the same general
area this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Smile will debut with $18.5 million this weekend (for a solid per-location average of $5,075 for the frame). |
| Also opening in wide release this weekend is Universal's Bros. The gay themed R-rated romantic comedy was directed by Nicholas Stoller, produced in part by Judd Apatow and stars Billy Eichner and
Luke Macfarlane. The principal cast of the film is composed entirely by members of the LGBTQ+ community. Bros will be opening in 3,350 locations this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. Critical
reviews for the film have been very strong, which could help Bros hold up well in the weeks ahead. As for this weekend, overall demand for Bros appears to be fairly modest, but the film is also highly likely to perform
much better in larger cities. Look for Bros to start out in second place this weekend with $7.9 million (for a per-location average of $2,358 for the frame). |
| Warner Bros. and New Line's Don't Worry Darling is coming off of a solid first place start of $19.35 million. Unfortunately, the Olivia Wilde directed thriller was already showing early signs of
front-loading as the film's opening weekend went on, due in part to fans of Harry Styles rushing out on opening day. The film's poor critical reviews and overall mixed word of mouth should also take a toll on holding power going forward.
Don't Worry Darling will also face competition from both of this weekend's two new wide releases. With regard to this weekend's box office, Don't Worry Darling could find itself in the same general neighborhood as both
Bros and The Woman King. A very sharp 61.2 percent decline would transfer into a second weekend gross of $7.5 million for Don't Worry Darling. |
| After declining a very solid 42.2 percent for a second place second weekend gross of $11.00 million last weekend, Sony's The Woman King is likely to stabilize even further this weekend. This weekend
The Woman King will benefit from its second weekend decline being behind it and from its continued strong word of mouth. However, the new competition from Smile will come into play as well. Look for The Woman King to
decline just 33.7 percent from last weekend to take in $7.3 million this weekend. |
| Last weekend Disney's re-issue of 20th Century's Avatar started out in third place with $10.53 million. Re-issues tend to be front-loaded, especially in more recent years, but Avatar is likely to
buck that trend this weekend given the overall demand for the re-issue. Avatar will take a hit from losing some of its showtimes from last weekend, but the film will also be aided by holding onto many of its IMAX screens this
weekend. A second weekend decline of 39.2 percent would give Avatar $6.4 million this weekend. |
| This weekend will also see Sarigama Cinemas release Ponniyin Selvan Part - 1 in moderate release. The Tamil-language epic action film from India was directed by Mani Ratnam. Ponniyin Selvan Part - 1 will
be playing on select IMAX screens this weekend and will also have Thursday preview shows. Earlier this year, Sarigama Cinemas experienced success with the domestic releases of both RRR and K.G.F: Chapter 2. As of
publishing, according to Sarigama Cinemas preview shows for the film have already passed the $900,000 mark. Break-out potential for Ponniyin Selvan Part - 1 will be limited by the film's moderate release. But given its reported
gross thus far, the film could still be in store for a strong per-location average this weekend and a debut of $3.0 million (including Thursday previews). |
| Meanwhile, after a very strong hold last weekend, Disney and 20th Century release Barbarian is likely to lose some momentum this weekend due largely to the new direct competition the film will face from
Smile. Barbarian could decline a still solid 40.0 percent to gross $2.9 million this weekend. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Smile (Paramount) |
$18.5 M | $18.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Bros (Universal) |
$7.9 M | $7.9 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | Don't Worry Darling (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$7.5 M | $33.0 M | -61% | 2 |
| 4 | The Woman King (Sony / TriStar) |
$7.3 M | $47.0 M | -34% | 3 |
| 5 | Avatar (re-issue) (Disney / 20th Century) |
$6.4 M | $20.3 M | -39% | 2 |
| 6 | Ponniyin Selvan Part - 1 (Sarigama Cinemas) |
$3.0 M | $3.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 7 | Barbarian (Disney / 20th Century) |
$2.9 M | $33.2 M | -40% | 4 |
| 8 | Bullet Train (Sony / Columbia) |
$1.4 M | $101.3 M | -23% | 9 |
| 9 | DC League of Super-Pets (Warner Bros.) |
$1.3 M | $91.7 M | -25% | 10 |
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