Weekend Box Office Predictions
September 23 - September 25, 2022
Published on September 22, 2022 at 5:30PM Pacific |
| Warner's Don't Worry Darling appears set to comfortably take first place at the domestic box office this weekend. The Olivia Wilde directed thriller set in the 1950s features an ensemble cast that includes
Florence Pugh, Harry Styles, Gemma Chan, Chris Pine and Wilde. There has been a tremendous amount of buzz surrounding the film, though much of the buzz has been centered on Styles' presence in the film and chatter about the film's stars
and production behind the scenes, more so than the film itself. Unfortunately for Don't Worry Darling, the film's buzz seems to have come down at least somewhat after the film's largely (and surprisingly) negative critical
reviews hit. While the film's critical reviews may limit break-out potential a bit this weekend, Don't Worry Darling is still likely to be fairly critic-proof at the box office this weekend (beyond this weekend could be a different story, with front-loading being a strong possibility).
Don't Worry Darling is opening in a very wide 4,113 locations this weekend and will be playing on some IMAX screens (other IMAX screens will be going to Avatar this weekend). Thursday preview shows for
Don't Worry Darling start at 4PM (the film also had select early access screenings on Monday). BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Don't Worry Darling will open with $23.0 million this weekend
(for a solid per-location average of $5,592). |
| After last weekend's stronger than expected $19.05 million first place start, Sony's The Woman King is likely to hold up well in its second weekend of release. The Gina Prince-Bythewood directed action
epic starring Viola Davis has gone over extremely well with both critics and audiences alike (The Woman King received a perfect A+ rating on CinemaScore). The Woman King also displayed strong initial holding power last
weekend, though the film's midweek holds haven't been quite as relatively impressive. The Woman King will take a hit from losing its IMAX screens, but that hit should be smaller than usual as a result of the film having split
IMAX screens last weekend (with Moonage Daydream). Look for The Woman King to decline a very solid 42.3 percent to take second this weekend with $11.0 million, before potentially stabilizing even further next weekend. |
| This weekend also sees Disney's re-issue of 20th Century's Avatar. With Avatar being strongly associated with the theatrical experience and Avatar: The Way of Water now less than three months away from
release, it feels that there is more demand for a re-issue of the James Cameron directed Avatar than that of other theatrical re-issues in recent years. At the same time, potential demand for the re-issue of Avatar will be
limited by the film being released in a relatively modest 1,860 locations this weekend. The film also isn't having Thursday preview shows; further limiting the amount of showtimes for the film this weekend. Avatar will benefit
from playing in both the IMAX and RealD 3D formats this weekend, which will help drive-up per-location averages for the film. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Avatar will take third place this weekend with an estimated
$10.0 million (for a per-location average of $5,376, as the film could have a per-location average in the same neighborhood as Don't Worry Darling this weekend). |
| Fellow Disney and 20th Century release Barbarian is coming off of a very nice second weekend hold, which saw the R-rated horror film decline just 38.4 percent to take second place with $6.50 million.
Barbarian is likely to hold up even better this weekend, thanks in part to the film receiving a significant expansion, as Barbarian will be playing in 550 more locations than it did this past week for a total location
count of 2,890. With the film's expansion in mind, Barbarian could decrease a slim 18.5 percent this weekend to place in fourth with $5.3 million. |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, Sony's Bullet Train could decline 25.5 percent to take in $1.90 million, Warner's DC League of Super-Pets could decrease 17.4 percent to gross
$1.80 million, Disney and Searchlight's See How They Run could slow 41.8 percent to register $1.75 million, A24's Pearl could fall 45.7 percent to claim $1.70 million and Paramount's Top Gun: Maverick could drop
33.1 percent for a weekend take of $1.50 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Don't Worry Darling (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$23.0 M | $23.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | The Woman King (Sony / TriStar) |
$11.0 M | $36.1 M | -42% | 2 |
| 3 | Avatar (re-issue) (Disney / 20th Century) |
$10.0 M | $10.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Barbarian (Disney / 20th Century) |
$5.3 M | $28.9 M | -18% | 3 |
| 5 | Bullet Train (Sony / Columbia) |
$1.90 M | $99.3 M | -26% | 8 |
| 6 | DC League of Super-Pets (Warner Bros.) |
$1.80 M | $90.1 M | -17% | 9 |
| 7 | See How They Run (Disney / Searchlight) |
$1.75 M | $5.9 M | -42% | 2 |
| 8 | Pearl (A24) |
$1.70 M | $6.4 M | -46% | 2 |
| 9 | Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) |
$1.50 M | $711.5 M | -33% | 18 |
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