Weekend Box Office Predictions
September 16 - September 18, 2022
Published on September 15, 2022 at 5:45PM Pacific |
| Sony's The Woman King looks to lead this weekend's slow overall box office frame with relative ease. The historical action epic about the Agojie warriors of Dahomey was directed by Gina Prince-Bythewood and
stars Viola Davis, Thuso Mbedu, Lashana Lynch, Sheila Atim, and John Boyega. The Woman King is launching in a wide 3,765 locations this weekend. The film will be playing on PLF screens, including some IMAX screens and will have
Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. Critical reviews for The Woman King have been very strong, which should give the film a boost this weekend and could also point towards the film holding up relatively well in the weeks ahead. BoxOfficeReport
is predicting that The Woman King will debut with $16.3 million this weekend (for a solid per-location average of $4,329 for the frame). |
| Disney and 20th Century's Barbarian is coming off of a stronger than expected first place start of $10.54 million last weekend. In addition to exceeding expectations, Barbarian has been experiencing
very nice daily percentage holds thus far. At the same time, Barbarian received a modest C+ rating on CinemaScore and will also be losing its PLF screens this weekend. A bit surprisingly, Barbarian isn't adding any new locations
this weekend as the film will continue to play in 2,340 locations. Look for Barbarian to hold up well this weekend, as the film could decline a very solid 42.1 percent to take second with $6.1 million. |
| Also opening in wide release this weekend is A24's Pearl. The Ti West directed R-rated horror film starring Mia Goth is a prequel to X, which was released by A24 this past March. Pearl is expected
to receive a similar launch as X (which opened in 2,865 locations). Thursday preview shows for Pearl begin at 7PM. On the average, critical reviews for Pearl have been good, but not quite as good as those for X.
Pearl will likely have an opening weekend performance in the same neighborhood as the $4.28 million start of X. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Pearl will debut in third place this weekend with $4.0 million. |
| The weekend's other new wide release is Disney and Searchlight's See How They Run. The Tom George directed mystery comedy has an ensemble cast that includes Sam Rockwell, Saoirse Ronan, Adrien Brody,
Ruth Wilson and David Oyelowo. It had been thought that See How They Run would open in moderate release, but the film will ultimately be opening in 2,404 locations this weekend. Thursday preview shows for See How They Run begin
at 5PM. On the average, critical reviews for See How They Run have been fairly average, though more so positive than negative. With the relative lack of awareness about the film, See How They Run could start out with
just $2.6 million this weekend. |
| After losing some momentum last weekend over the post-Labor Day weekend frame, Sony's Bullet Train and Paramount's Top Gun: Maverick should both re-stabilize this weekend. Percentage declines of 24 percent
from last weekend would lead to respective weekend grosses of $2.5 million for Bullet Train and $2.4 million for Top Gun: Maverick this weekend. Meanwhile, Warner's DC League of Super-Pets could decrease a slim 20.9 percent to gross
$2.1 million for the frame. |
| This weekend will also see the release of a handful of other films in limited / moderate / semi-wide release, including UP2U Films' Running the Bases (in 1,080 locations), IFC Films'
God's Country (in 785 locations), Paramount's Confess, Fletch (in 516 locations) and NEON's Moonage Daydream (exclusively on 170 IMAX screens). Lionsgate and Fathom Events' Clerks III
(which grossed $1.10 million from Tuesday shows and earlier screenings) will also continue to play in an unspecified amount of locations this weekend. BoxOfficeReport isn't making official weekend predictions for any of the films in question. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 10 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | The Woman King (Sony / TriStar) |
$16.3 M | $16.3 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Barbarian (Disney / 20th Century) |
$6.1 M | $20.7 M | -42% | 2 |
| 3 | Pearl (A24) |
$4.0 M | $4.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | See How They Run (Disney / Searchlight) |
$2.6 M | $2.6 M | NEW | 1 |
| 5 | Bullet Train (Sony / Columbia) |
$2.5 M | $96.4 M | -24% | 7 |
| 6 | Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) |
$2.4 M | $709.3 M | -24% | 17 |
| 7 | DC League of Super-Pets (Warner Bros.) |
$2.1 M | $87.8 M | -21% | 8 |
| 8 | The Invitation (Sony / Screen Gems) |
$1.65 M | $21.4 M | -38% | 4 |
| 9 | Minions: The Rise of Gru (Universal) |
$1.40 M | $364.2 M | -20% | 12 |
| 10 | Brahmastra Part One: Shiva (Disney / Star Studios) |
$1.25 M | $6.9 M | -72% | 2 |
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