4-Day Weekend Box Office Predictions
September 2 - September 5, 2022
Published on September 1, 2022 at 5:45PM Pacific |
| With another slow overall frame on the horizon, it could be a fairly close three-way race for first place this weekend between Paramount's Top Gun: Maverick, Sony's re-issue of last year's
Spider-Man: No Way Home and fellow Sony release Bullet Train. And while it likely won't make a big difference in actual grosses (with overall grosses this low), movie tickets being $3 on Saturday throughout the
marketplace as part of National Cinema Day could be a difference maker when it comes to percentages and close races between films this weekend. |
| Paramount's Top Gun: Maverick has obviously been the box office story of this summer, so it seems fitting that the blockbuster sequel will have a good chance of returning to the top of the box office
over Labor Day weekend. Top Gun: Maverick is coming off of a fourth place weekend take of $4.72 million, which was a decrease of just 20.2 percent from the previous weekend
(and that was with Top Gun: Maverick becoming available over streaming via PVOD last week). Traditionally, summer blockbusters see nice boosts over Labor Day weekend and on top of that Top Gun: Maverick will also be
playing in 151 more locations this weekend than it has over the past week (for a total of 3,113 locations). BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Top Gun: Maverick will gross $6.5 million over the four-day holiday weekend, which
would represent a very strong 37.6 percent increase from last weekend's three-day frame. That would also move Top Gun: Maverick to the brink of reaching the $700 million domestic milestone. |
| Sony's own fairly recent break-out blockbuster, last year's Spider-Man: No Way Home will return to theatres this weekend in a very wide 3,935 locations. Spider-Man: No Way Home grossed a massive
$804.79 million during its initial domestic run, which represents the third highest unadjusted domestic gross of all-time. While there likely isn't a high amount of overall demand for a theatrical re-issue of Spider-Man: No Way Home so
quickly (especially with the film available to watch at home), the film's very wide launch in combination with this version of Spider-Man: No Way Home consisting of an additional 11 minutes of extra footage should help lead to a
respectable performance for the film this weekend. Look for Spider-Man: No Way Home to take in $6.2 million over the four-day holiday frame. That would bring the film's lifetime domestic gross to nearly $811.0 million. |
| While it won't be the favorite for first place this weekend, Sony's Bullet Train could still find itself in the conversation for first. Last weekend Bullet Train declined a very solid 30.1 percent
to place in second with $5.61 million. Over this weekend's four-day holiday frame, Bullet Train could gross $6.0 million, which would represent a healthy 7.0 percent increase from last weekend's three-day performance. |
| Beyond this weekend's likely top three films, holdovers performances over the four-day frame could include $5.0 million for Warner's DC League of Super-Pets (up a strong 20.8 percent from last weekend's three-day frame), a similar
$4.9 million for Sony's The Invitation in its second weekend (down a respectable 28.0 percent) and $4.4 million for Universal's Beast (down a slim 9.8 percent). |
| This weekend will also see the re-issue of 1975's Jaws. The original summer blockbuster will be re-released semi-wide this weekend in 1,246 locations. Jaws will be playing on both IMAX screens and
RealD 3D screens this weekend. On the one hand Jaws will be helped out by higher ticket prices (except for on Saturday), but on the other hand Jaws probably isn't going quite wide enough to meet full audience demand this
weekend. With a significantly higher location count, the four-day holiday frame and a bit more apparent interest to begin with, Jaws should be off to a stronger re-issue launch than both the recent IMAX re-issues of
E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (which both had three-day openings just over $1 million). Look for Jaws to gross $3.6 million over the four-day frame
(for a solid four-day per-location average of $2,889). |
| The weekend's one original wide release is Focus' Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. The satirical comedy was directed by Adamma Ebo and stars Regina Hall and Sterling K. Brown. On the average, critical
reviews for the film have been solid. Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. is opening day and date this weekend, theatrically in 1,880 locations and via streaming on Peacock. The film was always going to be a modest box office
performer and opening Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. day and date should lead to an even lower box office performance. Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. could open outside of this weekend's top ten with $2.2 million over
the four-day frame. |
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4-Day predictions for this weekend's top 14 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) |
$6.5 M | $699.8 M | +38% | 15 |
| 2 | Spider-Man: No Way Home (re-issue) (Sony / Columbia) |
$6.2 M | $6.2 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | Bullet Train (Sony / Columbia) |
$6.0 M | $86.5 M | +7% | 5 |
| 4 | DC League of Super-Pets (Warner Bros.) |
$5.0 M | $80.4 M | +21% | 6 |
| 5 | The Invitation (Sony / Screen Gems) |
$4.9 M | $13.9 M | -28% | 2 |
| 6 | Beast (Universal) |
$4.4 M | $26.2 M | -10% | 3 |
| 7 | Jaws (re-issue) (Universal) |
$3.6 M | $3.6 M | NEW | 1 |
| 8 | Minions: The Rise of Gru (Universal) |
$3.4 M | $359.1 M | +25% | 10 |
| 9 | Thor: Love and Thunder (Disney) |
$2.75 M | $340.3 M | +4% | 9 |
| 10 | Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero (Crunchyroll) |
$2.70 M | $35.1 M | -42% | 3 |
| 11 | Where the Crawdads Sing (Sony / Columbia) |
$2.65 M | $85.7 M | +15% | 8 |
| 12 | Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. (Focus) |
$2.20 M | $2.2 M | NEW | 1 |
| 13 | Nope (Universal) |
$2.00 M | $120.5 M | -9% | 7 |
| 14 | Three Thousand Years of Longing (United Artists Releasing / MGM) |
$1.90 M | $6.1 M | -35% | 2 |
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