Weekend Box Office Predictions
August 5 - August 7, 2022
Published on August 4, 2022 at 5:45PM Pacific |
| As we head into August, Sony's Bullet Train is set to easily lead the weekend box office upon arriving in the marketplace. The David Leitch directed R-rated action comedy stars Brad Pitt and also features
an ensemble supporting cast that includes Joey King, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Brian Tyree Henry, Andrew Koji, Hiroyuki Sanada, Michael Shannon, Benito A Martínez Ocasio (Bad Bunny) and Sandra Bullock. Bullet Train will be playing in
a very wide 4,357 locations this weekend, will be receiving a relatively high amount of average showtimes per location and will be playing on IMAX screens. Bullet Train had early access screenings on Tuesday and will have
traditional Thursday preview shows beginning early at 3PM. There had been some feeling that Bullet Train could potentially be a late-summer break-out performer, but it appears that the film will more than likely be a solid box office
performer instead (at least on opening weekend). The film's mixed critical reviews won't help matters when it comes to a potential break-out, but Bullet Train is still likely to be fairly critic-proof this weekend. As for
opening weekend comparisons, Bullet Train could get off to a similar start as the $30.45 million debut of The Lost City back in March. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Bullet Train will debut with $31.5 million
(for a per-location average of $7,230 for the frame). |
| Last weekend Warner's DC League of Super-Pets came in a bit below the low end of consensus expectations with a first place start of $23.00 million. With the aid of good word of mouth and no new major
competition for family audiences until early October, DC League of Super-Pets will likely hold up well in general. However, before that likely happens, the film will probably still experience a fairly sharp second weekend
decline this weekend. Even with no new competition for family audiences this weekend, DC League of Super-Pets will be losing a sizable amount of showtimes from last weekend, including its portion of shows on non-IMAX premium
screens. And even as an animated film, the film being a DC property will likely lead to some initial built-in front-loading. Back in August of 2018, Warner's Teen Titans GO! To the Movies declined 54.1 percent in its second
weekend (to take in $4.78 million). DC League of Super-Pets could be in store for a similar second weekend decline this weekend. Look for DC League of Super-Pets to decrease 53.1 percent this weekend to take second place
with $10.8 million. |
| Universal's Nope is coming off of a second weekend performance that saw the R-rated horror film drop a sharp 58.1 percent to place in second with $18.59 million. Nope has been showing signs of
stabilizing during the midweek this week, but unfortunately some of that stabilization is likely to be balanced out by Nope losing its IMAX screens to Bullet Train this weekend and from Nope playing in a significant
798 fewer locations this weekend than last weekend (for a weekend location count of 3,009). Look for Nope to decline 50.5 percent this weekend to claim third with $9.2 million. |
| Summer blockbusters Thor: Love and Thunder and Minions: The Rise of Gru will likely find themselves in a close race for fourth place this weekend. Last weekend Disney and Marvel's
Thor: Love and Thunder slowed 41.6 percent to take third with $13.18 million, while Universal and Illumination's Minions: The Rise of Gru decreased a fairly similar 39.2 percent to follow in fourth with $10.96 million. With
Thor: Love and Thunder facing new competition this weekend from Bullet Train and Minions: The Rise of Gru likely to further stabilize after facing new direct competition last weekend from
DC League of Super-Pets, Minions: The Rise of Gru should have a better percentage hold than Thor: Love and Thunder this weekend. However, with a higher starting point from last weekend,
Thor: Love and Thunder will likely still have the slight edge for fourth place this weekend. Thor: Love and Thunder could drop a solid 38.5 percent to gross $8.1 million this weekend and
Minions: The Rise of Gru could decrease just 27.9 percent to follow closely behind with $7.9 million. |
| Paramount's Top Gun: Maverick decreased a slim 18.1 percent last weekend to hold steady in fifth place with $8.41 million. Even with new competition from Bullet Train,
Top Gun: Maverick is still highly likely to hold up very well once again this weekend. A slim 20.3 percent decline would transfer into a sixth place take of $6.7 million for Top Gun: Maverick. That would move
Top Gun: Maverick past the lifetime domestic gross of 1997's Titanic for seventh place on all-time unadjusted domestic list. |
| Also opening in wide release this weekend is Universal and DreamWorks' Easter Sunday. The Jay Chandrasekhar directed comedy stars comedian Jo Koy. Easter Sunday is opening in 3,175 locations and
will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. As of publishing, only a limited amount of critical reviews have appeared for Easter Sunday thus far, but those reviews have been largely negative. Unfortunately there doesn't
seem to be much overall interest in Easter Sunday, but the film could still be a bit of a wild card this weekend due to fans of Koy and potentially stronger interest in the film among Filipino Americans. BoxOfficeReport is
predicting a seventh place debut of $6.2 million for Easter Sunday this weekend (for a per-location average of $1,953 for the frame). |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers in wide release, Sony's Where the Crawdads Sing could decline just 28.7 percent to place in eighth with $5.4 million, while Warner's Elvis could decrease
only 21.6 percent to follow in ninth place with $4.5 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Bullet Train (Sony / Columbia) |
$31.5 M | $31.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | DC League of Super-Pets (Warner Bros.) |
$10.8 M | $44.5 M | -53% | 2 |
| 3 | Nope (Universal) |
$9.2 M | $98.9 M | -51% | 3 |
| 4 | Thor: Love and Thunder (Disney) |
$8.1 M | $316.5 M | -39% | 5 |
| 5 | Minions: The Rise of Gru (Universal) |
$7.9 M | $335.4 M | -28% | 6 |
| 6 | Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) |
$6.7 M | $662.1 M | -20% | 11 |
| 7 | Easter Sunday (Universal / DreamWorks) |
$6.2 M | $6.2 M | NEW | 1 |
| 8 | Where the Crawdads Sing (Sony / Columbia) |
$5.4 M | $64.4 M | -29% | 4 |
| 9 | Elvis (Warner Bros.) |
$4.5 M | $137.0 M | -22% | 7 |
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