Weekend Box Office Predictions
July 22 - July 24, 2022
Published on July 21, 2022 at 5:15PM Pacific |
| Upon entering the summer marketplace, Universal's Nope is set to take first place at the box office this weekend. The R-rated sci-fi horror film represents the third film directed by Jordan Peele and stars
Daniel Kaluuya, Keke Palmer, and Steven Yeun. Nope is being released in a wide 3,785 locations this weekend and will also be playing on IMAX screens. Thursday preview shows for Nope start at 4PM. Peele has quickly become
an especially popular filmmaker and is obviously the main draw of Nope. Peele's previous film as a director, 2019's Us, debuted with $71.12 million, before going on to finish its domestic run with $175.08 million. Nope
isn't expected to match the opening weekend performance of Us (which was Peele's anticipated follow-up to his 2017 break-out film Get Out), but could potentially have stronger holding power than Us did
(thanks in part to the advantage of having summer midweek business; whereas Us opened in March). On the average, critical reviews for Nope have been good, though they haven't been as strong as critical reviews were for
both Get Out and Us. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Nope will get out to a healthy start this weekend with $53.0 million (which would give the film a per-location average of $14,003 for the frame). |
| Disney's Thor: Love and Thunder is coming off of a second weekend performance which saw the film decline a very sharp, but largely expected 67.7 percent to hold steady in first place with
$46.63 million. With its second weekend decline behind it, Thor: Love and Thunder will no doubt stabilize some this weekend, though the degree of that stabilization will be limited by the new competition from
Nope, which will also result in Thor: Love and Thunder losing its IMAX screens this weekend. Back in 2019, Captain Marvel declined 49.6 percent in its third weekend while going up against the opening
weekend of Us. Thor: Love and Thunder will likely fall a bit more than that this weekend. A 52.8 percent decline would transfer into a second place, third weekend take of $22.0 million for Thor: Love and Thunder. |
| Last weekend saw Universal and Illumination's Minions: The Rise of Gru hold up nicely by declining 41.8 percent to continue to claim second place with $26.84 million. With continued strong word of mouth, a
strong average showtimes per location hold this weekend and the film potentially getting an added boost from family audiences wanting to catch it (or catch it again) before Warner's DC League of Super-Pets enters the marketplace next
weekend (on July 29), Minions: The Rise of Gru is highly likely to hold up very well this weekend. Minions: The Rise of Gru could decline just 29.2 percent this weekend to place in third with $19.0 million. That would
bring the film to the brink of the $300 million domestic mark. |
| Further down on this weekend's box office chart, it could prove to be a very close race for fourth place between Paramount's Top Gun: Maverick and Sony's Where the Crawdads Sing. Last weekend
Where the Crawdads Sing debuted in third with a promising $17.25 million, while Top Gun: Maverick declined only 20.9 percent to follow in fourth with $12.27 million. Both films have been holding up very well during the
midweek this week, with Top Gun: Maverick also having now surpassed the lifetime domestic totals of Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Marvel's The Avengers to move into ninth place on the all-time unadjusted domestic list. While
Where the Crawdads Sing has been ahead of Top Gun: Maverick in the daily rankings this week, Top Gun: Maverick should be the more weekend-heavy of the two films. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that
Top Gun: Maverick will decline a slim 13.6 percent this weekend to take in $10.6 million and that Where the Crawdads Sing will decrease a very solid 39.1 percent in its second weekend to gross $10.5 million. |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, Warner's Elvis should continue to hold up well and could decline just 21.3 percent to claim sixth place with $6.3 million, Universal's The Black Phone, even with
new competition from fellow Universal horror film Nope, could still decline a solid 34.9 percent to place in seventh with $3.5 million, Paramount's Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank could slow 46.1 percent in its second
weekend to follow in eighth with $3.4 million and Universal's Jurassic World Dominion could decrease 36.0 percent to land in ninth place with $3.3 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Nope (Universal) |
$53.0 M | $53.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Thor: Love and Thunder (Disney) |
$22.0 M | $276.0 M | -53% | 3 |
| 3 | Minions: The Rise of Gru (Universal) |
$19.0 M | $298.9 M | -29% | 4 |
| 4 | Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) |
$10.6 M | $636.1 M | -14% | 9 |
| 5 | Where the Crawdads Sing (Sony / Columbia) |
$10.5 M | $38.5 M | -39% | 2 |
| 6 | Elvis (Warner Bros.) |
$6.3 M | $118.4 M | -21% | 5 |
| 7 | The Black Phone (Universal) |
$3.5 M | $78.6 M | -35% | 5 |
| 8 | Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank (Paramount) |
$3.4 M | $13.2 M | -46% | 2 |
| 9 | Jurassic World Dominion (Universal) |
$3.3 M | $365.8 M | -36% | 7 |
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