Weekend Box Office Predictions
July 15 - July 17, 2022
Published on July 14, 2022 at 5:30PM Pacific |
| Disney's Thor: Love and Thunder is set to lead the box office again this weekend with relative ease. Last weekend Thor: Love and Thunder was off to a mighty $144.17 million start, which
represented the third largest opening weekend of 2022 thus far. However, Thor: Love and Thunder has been quite front-loaded thus far, which obviously isn't a good sign heading into the film's second weekend. And
while the film's B+ rating on CinemaScore would normally be solid, the rating is relatively lackluster by the lofty CinemaScore standards of Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) films. In general, MCU films have also been
tending to experience larger second weekend declines than they used to, and with that in mind the respective 68 percent and 67 percent second weekend declines of last year's Black Widow and this year's
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness could prove to be strong comparisons when it comes to the second weekend hold of Thor: Love and Thunder. Look for Thor: Love and Thunder to decline a very
sharp 69 percent this weekend to take in $44.5 million. |
| Last weekend saw Universal and Illumination's Minions: The Rise of Gru decline a sharp 57 percent to place in second in its second weekend with $46.13 million. That was right in line with the 57 percent
second weekend decline of 2015's Minions. In its third weekend of release, Minions decreased 53.5 percent, while 2017's Despicable Me 3 declined 42.4 percent in its third weekend. Minions: The Rise of Gru could
experience a third weekend percentage decline in between those of Minions and Despicable Me 3. And while Minions: The Rise of Gru will face new direct competition for family audiences from
Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank this weekend, the Paramount release likely won't have much of an impact on Minions: The Rise of Gru. A 47 percent decline would transfer into a second place, third weekend gross of
$24.5 million for Minions: The Rise of Gru. |
| The weekend's top new release looks to be Sony and 3000 Pictures' Where the Crawdads Sing. The theatrical adaptation of the popular Delia Owens novel was directed by Olivia Newman and stars Daisy Edgar-Jones,
Taylor John Smith, Harris Dickinson and David Strathairn. Where the Crawdads Sing is opening in a wide 3,650 locations this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM
(in addition to select preview shows on Wednesday). Where the Crawdads Sing should have a built-in audience thanks to the popularity of the novel and could also play well in more rural areas. Critical reviews for
Where the Crawdads Sing have been mostly negative, which could limit break-out potential for the film. Break-out potential for Where the Crawdads Sing will also be limited (at least this weekend) by the film receiving a
rather average amount of showtimes for a new release at many locations. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Where the Crawdads Sing will debut with a promising $17.8 million this weekend, which will give the film a per-location
average of $4,877 for the frame. |
| After declining 40 percent last weekend to take third with $15.51 million, Paramount's Top Gun: Maverick is likely to re-stabilize this weekend now that the opening weekend of
Thor: Love and Thunder is in the past. Top Gun: Maverick, which surpassed the $600 million domestic mark on Tuesday, could decline just 26 percent this weekend to place in fourth with $11.5 million. |
| Coming off of a 39 percent decline to place in fourth last weekend with $11.18 million, Warner's Elvis will likely hold up even better this weekend. A 28 percent decrease would transfer into $8.1 million
for Elvis this weekend, which would likely place the film in a close race for fifth place this weekend with Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank and would move Elvis beyond the $100 million domestic mark. |
| The weekend's other new wide release is Paramount's Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank. The computer animated film was directed by Rob Minkoff and Mark Koetsier and features the vocal talents of Michael Cera,
Ricky Gervais, George Takei, Mel Brooks and Samuel L. Jackson. Paws of Fury is playing in 3,475 locations this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. On the average, initial critical reviews for
Paws of Fury have been respectable, though they are limited in number as of publishing. Regardless, there just doesn't appear to be much demand for Paws of Fury among family audiences, due in part to the film being
released right in between Minions: The Rise of Gru and Warner's upcoming DC League of Super-Pets (opening on July 29). BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank will debut with
$8.0 million this weekend, which would give the film a per-location average of $2,302 for the frame. |
| As for some of this weekend's other significant holdovers, Universal's The Black Phone might decline only 27 percent to place in seventh with $5.7 million, while fellow Universal release
Jurassic World Dominion could decrease a solid 37 percent to follow in eighth with $5.4 million. In addition to continuing the benefit from good word of mouth, The Black Phone could get an added boost this weekend from
horror fans wanting to catch the film before fellow horror film Nope (also a Universal release) enters the marketplace next weekend on July 22. |
| Opening in moderate / semi-wide release this weekend is Focus' Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris. The film was directed by Anthony Fabian and stars Lesley Manville, Isabelle Huppert, Lambert Wilson and Jason Isaacs.
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris will be playing in 980 locations this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 7PM. Critical reviews for the film have been very good. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris will start out in ninth place this weekend with $1.3 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 10 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Thor: Love and Thunder (Disney) |
$44.5 M | $231.7 M | -69% | 2 |
| 2 | Minions: The Rise of Gru (Universal) |
$24.5 M | $261.3 M | -47% | 3 |
| 3 | Where the Crawdads Sing (Sony / Columbia) |
$17.8 M | $17.8 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) |
$11.5 M | $617.5 M | -26% | 8 |
| 5 | Elvis (Warner Bros.) |
$8.1 M | $106.8 M | -28% | 4 |
| 6 | Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank (Paramount) |
$8.0 M | $8.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 7 | The Black Phone (Universal) |
$5.7 M | $72.5 M | -27% | 4 |
| 8 | Jurassic World Dominion (Universal) |
$5.4 M | $360.2 M | -37% | 6 |
| 9 | Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Focus) |
$1.3 M | $1.3 M | NEW | 1 |
| 10 | Lightyear (Disney) |
$1.1 M | $115.3 M | -64% | 5 |
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