4-Day Weekend Box Office Predictions
July 1 - July 4, 2022
Published on June 30, 2022 at 4:45PM Pacific |
| Universal and Illumination's long-awaited Minions: The Rise of Gru finally makes its way to theatres this holiday weekend. The second Minions film and fifth installment of the
Despicable Me franchise had originally been scheduled to be released way back in July of 2020, but was pushed back two years largely as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the delays, anticipation for
Minions: The Rise of Gru still appears to be very high among Minions and Despicable Me fans. The computer animated film was directed by Kyle Balda and features the vocal talents of Steve Carell,
Pierre Coffin, Taraji P. Henson and Michelle Yeoh. Minions: The Rise of Gru serving as an origin story for Gru should also be a major draw for the film at the box office. Minions: The Rise of Gru is opening
in a wide 4,391 locations this weekend and will also be playing on IMAX screens. Minions: The Rise of Gru will have a fairly high amount of average showtimes per location this weekend, thanks in part to the film's
87-minute runtime. Minions: The Rise of Gru will also have Thursday preview shows beginning early at 2PM. |
| With the Independence Day holiday falling on Monday, this weekend will be a four-day holiday frame. Back in 2017 (also over Independence Day weekend), Despicable Me 3 opened with $72.43 million
over the three-day frame and grossed $86.29 million over its first four days. Meanwhile, 2015's Minions opened with $115.72 million over three days and took in $128.66 million over its first four days
(the weekend after Independence Day weekend). With Disney and Pixar's Lightyear having recently opened to underwhelming respective three-day and four-day starts of $50.58 million and $57.15 million, it is only
natural to question whether or not family audiences passing on Lightyear could happen again with Minions: The Rise of Gru (at least to a certain degree). But if anything, it appears that the softer than
expected performance of Lightyear (especially with family audiences) will only help strengthen the performance of Minions: The Rise of Gru with family audiences this weekend. Thus far critical reviews for
Minions: The Rise of Gru have been fairly mixed, although more so positive than negative on the average. With all factors considered, Minions: The Rise of Gru opening ahead of Despicable Me 3, but behind
Minions feels very reasonable this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day and four-day openings of $84.0 million and $98.0 million for Minions: The Rise of Gru this weekend. That three-day
performance would represent the largest opening weekend for an animated film since the re-opening of domestic theatres
(topping the $72.11 million debut of computer animated / live action hybrid Sonic the Hedgehog 2 earlier this year and the mentioned $50.58 million opening of fully computer animated Lightyear). |
| Last weekend Paramount's Top Gun: Maverick continued its historic box office run by declining 34 percent to finish in a close second place with $29.61 million. That represented the third
largest fifth weekend gross of all-time (behind only Avatar and Titanic). Given the film's continued exceptional word of mouth, no new major live-action competition this weekend, a strong average showtimes
per location hold and that the film will likely perform very well on Independence Day Monday, Top Gun: Maverick is highly likely to experience a terrific hold this weekend. The film could also get an additional
boost this weekend from moviegoers wanting to catch the film (or catch it again) before Disney's highly anticipated Thor: Love and Thunder arrives in the marketplace next weekend on July 8. Top Gun: Maverick
shouldn't have a problem remaining in second place this weekend, as the Tom Cruise led blockbuster sequel could decline just 14 percent to gross $25.5 million over the three-day frame, with the film's four-day performance
coming in at $32.0 million (which would represent an 8 percent increase over last weekend's three-day frame). That three-day performance would represent the second largest sixth weekend gross of all-time
(behind only Avatar and just ahead of the $25.24 million sixth weekend take of Titanic). |
| Warner's Elvis is coming off of a solid first place debut of $31.21 million. The Baz Luhrmann directed biopic has been holding up fairly well throughout the midweek this week and the film's healthy
A- rating on CinemaScore also suggests that Elvis is going over well with audiences. Unfortunately, Elvis will be taking a bit of a hit to its average showtimes per location this weekend, which will likely result in the
film losing some relative momentum once the weekend hits. With that said, the 46 percent decline of 2019's Rocketman in its second weekend (to gross $13.82 million) could prove to be a good comparison for the second weekend hold
of Elvis. Elvis could be headed for respective three-day and four-day third place grosses of $17.3 million and $21.0 million this weekend, which would represent respective declines of 45 percent and 33 percent from last
weekend's three-day frame. |
| Universal should claim both fourth and fifth place this weekend with its Jurassic World Dominion and The Black Phone. Last weekend Jurassic World Dominion declined 55 percent to take third
with $26.73 million, while The Black Phone debuted on the very high end of expectations to place in fourth with $23.63 million. With Jurassic World Dominion losing the remainder of its IMAX screens this weekend and
The Black Phone holding onto a very high percentage of its average showtimes per location this weekend, the two films could be in store for similar holds this weekend. The Black Phone also looks to be going over well with
audiences after receiving a very solid B+ rating on CinemaScore. For the three-day frame, both Jurassic World Dominion and The Black Phone could decline 45 percent for respective grosses of $14.7 million and $13.0 million. For
the four-day frame Jurassic World Dominion could take in $18.0 million (a 33 percent decline) and The Black Phone could register $15.5 million (a 34 percent decline). |
| After falling a very sharp 64 percent to land in fifth place last weekend with just $18.16 million, Disney and Pixar's Lightyear could be in store for another lackluster hold this weekend, especially with
the new competition for family audiences from Minions: The Rise of Gru. Respective three-day and four-day sixth place grosses of $8.5 million and $10.3 million for Lightyear would represent respective declines of
53 percent and 43 percent. |
| This weekend also sees Bleecker Street's Mr. Malcolm's List debut in a semi-wide 1,384 locations. The romantic comedy set in 19th century England was directed by Emma Holly Jones and stars Zawe Ashton,
Sope Dirisu, Freida Pinto and Theo James. On the average, critical reviews for the film have been good. BoxOfficeReport isn't making an official prediction for Mr. Malcolm's List this weekend, but the film is likely to finish ahead of
Disney's Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness to place in seventh over the holiday frame. |
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4-Day predictions for this weekend's top 6 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Minions: The Rise of Gru (Universal) |
$98.0 M | $98.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) |
$32.0 M | $571.0 M | +8% | 6 |
| 3 | Elvis (Warner Bros.) |
$21.0 M | $69.5 M | -33% | 2 |
| 4 | Jurassic World Dominion (Universal) |
$18.0 M | $334.2 M | -33% | 4 |
| 5 | The Black Phone (Universal) |
$15.5 M | $50.8 M | -34% | 2 |
| 6 | Lightyear (Disney) |
$10.3 M | $109.5 M | -43% | 3 |
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