Weekend Box Office Predictions
June 24 - June 26, 2022
Published on June 23, 2022 at 4:45PM Pacific |
| Five different films should have a significant presence at the box office this weekend, with Warner's Elvis and Paramount's Top Gun: Maverick (in its fifth weekend) looking like they
could both emerge from the pack in a close race for first place. |
| Warner's music biopic Elvis was directed by Baz Luhrmann and stars Austin Butler and Tom Hanks. Elvis is being released in a wide 3,906 locations this weekend and will have Thursday
preview shows beginning at 5PM (in addition to earlier select previews on Tuesday). While Elvis isn't playing on domestic IMAX screens this weekend, the film will be playing on other domestic PLF screens this
weekend, including Dolby Cinema (as well as international IMAX screens). Music biopics typically perform well at the box office in general and the long-lasting popularity of Elvis Presley is obviously a huge draw for
Elvis. Fans of Luhrmann and Hanks should also help Elvis get off to a good start this weekend. On the average, critical reviews for Elvis have been good. |
| At the same time, there are a few factors that will make it difficult for Elvis to truly break out (at least out of the gate this weekend), including a rather average amount of average
showtimes per location, the mentioned lack of domestic IMAX screens and the overall competition in the marketplace this weekend. While older moviegoers have been slower to return to theatres since re-opening than other
demos, the recent break-out success of Top Gun: Maverick has shown that older moviegoers are becoming more comfortable returning to theatres (especially for the right film). In addition to playing well with older
moviegoers, Elvis is also likely to play well in more rural areas, though the film may not play as well with younger moviegoers and in more metropolitan areas. Back in the summer of 2019, Elton John biopic
Rocketman debuted with $25.73 million and it feels like a safe bet that Elvis will be able to outpace the opening weekend of Rocketman by a comfortable margin. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that
Elvis will debut with $36.5 million this weekend (for a strong per-location average of $9,345 for the frame). |
| The historic run for Paramount's Top Gun: Maverick became even more historic last weekend when the Tom Cruise led blockbuster sequel declined only 14 percent to register the second largest
fourth weekend gross of all-time (behind only Avatar) with $44.66 million. While Top Gun: Maverick and the marketplace in general did receive a boost this past Sunday from the dual Father's Day and
Juneteenth holidays, Top Gun: Maverick has continued to hold up especially well throughout the midweek this week. On Wednesday, Top Gun: Maverick returned to first place for the day with $5.48 million, which
was down just 17 percent from the previous Wednesday. Top Gun: Maverick will also receive boosts this weekend from having a much stronger average showtimes per location hold this weekend than it did last weekend and
from returning to IMAX screens this weekend (in a limited showtime capacity). In the race for first place with Elvis this weekend, two disadvantages for Top Gun: Maverick are that Elvis will have the
advantage of preview grosses and that Top Gun: Maverick will have to deal with new competition for older moviegoers from Elvis and to a lesser extent new competition for younger adults from The Black Phone. Look for
Top Gun: Maverick to decline 20.5 percent for $35.5 million this weekend, which would represent the second largest fifth weekend gross of all-time (once again behind only Avatar), and move
Top Gun: Maverick well beyond the $500 million domestic mark. |
| Last weekend Universal's Jurassic World Dominion declined 59 percent to take in $59.15 million, which was (unexpectedly) good enough to keep the film in first place. With its second weekend
decline behind it, Jurassic World Dominion should continue to stabilize this weekend. At the same time, Jurassic World Dominion will also be dealing with a few factors going against it this weekend, including
last Sunday's mentioned inflated grosses, losing some of its IMAX showtimes to Top Gun: Maverick and The Black Phone providing fairly direct new competition. Back in 2018, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
declined 53 percent in its third weekend to gross $28.63 million (in the face of the debut of Ant-Man and the Wasp). Jurassic World Dominion may hold up slightly better than that this weekend by decreasing
51 percent to take third place with $29.0 million, which would move the film past the $300 million domestic mark. |
| Fellow Universal release The Black Phone debuts in theatres this weekend in 3,150 locations. The R-rated horror film from Blumhouse was directed by Scott Derrickson and stars Ethan Hawke,
Mason Thames and Madeleine McGraw. The Black Phone will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM and has also had earlier select preview shows. On the average, critical reviews for The Black Phone have
been strong. Mainstream horror films have been fairly steady performers at the box office since re-opening and the marketplace not really having had a higher profile horror film since Scream back in January
(more recent horror films such as X, Firestarter and Men were always going to be lower profile / less mainstream), should help out The Black Phone this weekend. Director Derrickson and star Hawke should also help
The Black Phone further appeal to horror fans. As with Elvis, break-out potential for The Black Phone will likely be limited this weekend in part from the film receiving a fairly average amount of average
showtimes per location for a new wide release. Unlike Elvis, The Black Phone may appeal more towards younger adults and moviegoers in more metropolitan areas and not as strongly towards older moviegoers and
moviegoers in more rural areas. Last summer's Candyman, which debuted with $22.00 million, could prove to be a good comparison for The Black Phone this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that
The Black Phone will debut with $22.5 million this weekend (for a healthy per-location average of $7,143 for the frame). |
| Disney and Pixar's Lightyear is coming off of a significantly softer than expected second place start of $50.58 million. Although it has appealed to the non-family component of the
Toy Story fanbase, relatively speaking Lightyear hasn't appealed much to family audiences for a Toy Story related film. Lightyear has gone over fairly well with both critics and audiences
(the film received a healthy A- rating on CinemaScore), but at the same time Lightyear isn't going over as well as a typical Pixar film. In addition, prior to more recent Pixar films debuting over streaming via Disney+, more
and more, Pixar films in general had been tending to experience sharper second weekend declines (before stabilizing afterwards). All of that doesn't bode well for Lightyear this weekend, though the film could get a bit of an
additional boost from some moviegoers wanting to catch the film before Universal and Illumination's Minions: The Rise of Gru enters the marketplace next weekend on July 1. Lightyear could decline a sharp 56.5 percent for
a second weekend take of $22.0 million. |
| Disney's Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness held up very well last weekend by declining just 15 percent to take in $4.45 million. But with Father's Day behind us and
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness becoming available via streaming on Disney+ on Wednesday, the film is likely to experience a much more typical decline this weekend. Look for
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness to decrease 46 percent for a sixth place take of $2.4 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 6 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Elvis (Warner Bros.) |
$36.5 M | $36.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) |
$35.5 M | $526.7 M | -21% | 5 |
| 3 | Jurassic World Dominion (Universal) |
$29.0 M | $305.2 M | -51% | 3 |
| 4 | The Black Phone (Universal) |
$22.5 M | $22.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 5 | Lightyear (Disney) |
$22.0 M | $93.2 M | -57% | 2 |
| 6 | Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Disney) |
$2.4 M | $409.9 M | -46% | 8 |
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