4-Day Weekend Box Office Predictions
May 27 - May 30, 2022
Published on May 26, 2022 at 5:30PM Pacific |
| This weekend sees Paramount's Top Gun: Maverick make its long awaited debut in theatres over the Memorial Day weekend holiday frame. The sequel to the 1986 blockbuster Top Gun was
directed by Joseph Kosinski and sees the return of star Tom Cruise. Top Gun: Maverick also features Miles Teller, Jennifer Connelly, Jon Hamm and Val Kilmer. Top Gun: Maverick had originally been scheduled
to be released way back in July of 2019, but was pushed back a number of times, due in large part to the COVID-19 pandemic. If anything, the series of delays over the past few years seems to have only increased the
anticipation for the film among moviegoers (what's an extra three years wait for the first sequel to a 1986 film). Top Gun: Maverick is opening in an ultra-wide 4,735 locations this weekend. That represents the largest
domestic opening weekend location count of all-time; just topping the 4,725 locations 2019's The Lion King debuted in. The film will be playing on IMAX screens this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows
beginning at 3PM (following select earlier preview shows on both Tuesday and Wednesday). |
| Critical reviews for Top Gun: Maverick have been simply exceptional, as the critical consensus is that Top Gun: Maverick is a much better film than 1986's Top Gun
(which obviously has legions of fans, regardless of its critical reception). The critical reception to Top Gun: Maverick should help build up even further demand for the film and when combined with what is likely
to be extremely strong word of mouth among audiences, Top Gun: Maverick is likely to display relatively strong holding power (as early as this weekend itself). The decision to open the film over Memorial Day
weekend should also help boost the initial rush-out for Top Gun: Maverick in the United States and could help lead to Monday's hold being stronger than usual for a high-profile non-family film opening over Memorial
Day weekend. Top Gun: Maverick is an absolute lock to become the largest opener ever for Cruise, as the actor's previous best was the $64.88 million opening weekend of 2005's War of the Worlds
(a Wednesday opener, which grossed $100.56 million over its first five days). BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Top Gun: Maverick will debut with $143.0 million over the four-day holiday weekend
(which would represent the second largest four-day Memorial Day weekend start of all-time - behind only the $153.04 million four-day opening of 2007's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End), including
$117.0 million over the traditional three-day weekend frame (which would represent the fourth largest three-day opening weekend since the re-opening of domestic theatres). |
| After leading the box office for each of the past three weekends, Disney's Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness is set to finish in a distant second place this weekend. On the heels of a
very sharp second weekend decline, last weekend saw Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness stabilize very nicely in its third weekend by declining 48 percent to take in $32.30 million.
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness will lose some relative momentum this weekend as a result of losing a significant amount of locations and screens (including its IMAX screens) to Top Gun: Maverick. At
the same time, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness has been holding up nicely throughout the midweek this week and will be helped out by the four-day holiday weekend frame. And if Top Gun: Maverick does
have one area where it doesn't excel as much as all other areas this weekend, that area will likely be moviegoers under 25, a demographic that could remain strong for Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness this
weekend. Back in 2016, Captain America: Civil War declined 39 percent over Memorial Day weekend in the face of X-Men: Apocalypse (and Alice Through the Looking Glass) debuting in the marketplace.
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness could experience a similar hold this weekend. Look for Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness to decline 36.5 percent from last weekend's three-day performance
for a four-day holiday gross of $20.5 million. |
| This weekend also sees Disney release 20th Century's The Bob's Burgers Movie. The animated film directed by Loren Bouchard and Bernard Derriman is the first theatrical adaptation of the
long-running Bob's Burgers animated television series. The Bob's Burgers Movie will open in 3,425 locations this weekend and also has Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. The Bob's Burgers series isn't
as widely watched as it was earlier in its lifetime, but it's quite possible that some former regular watchers of Bob's Burgers will show up for The Bob's Burgers Movie, in addition to current watchers of the
series. The Bob's Burgers Movie could also get a bit of a boost from its critical reviews, which have been strong on the average. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that The Bob's Burgers Movie will debut in
third place over the four-day holiday frame with $13.8 million, including $11.5 million over the traditional three-day weekend. |
| Last weekend saw Focus' Downton Abbey: A New Era debut towards the lower end of expectations with a second place take of $16.00 million. While Downton Abbey: A New Era has gone over
very well with critics and audiences alike (the film received a strong A rating on CinemaScore), the film is still likely to continue to experience initial front-loading this weekend as a result of its largely fan-driven
audience. Back in 2019, Downton Abbey declined 54 percent in its second weekend (and that was with the aid of expanding into an additional 311 locations). Given the smaller opening weekend of
Downton Abbey: A New Era and especially the four-day holiday frame, Downton Abbey: A New Era should have a better second weekend hold than its predecessor did. A 42 percent decline from last weekend's
three-day start would transfer into a fourth place four-day take of $9.3 million for Downton Abbey: A New Era. |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers (over the four-day frame), look for Universal and DreamWorks Animation's The Bad Guys to decline a slim 4 percent to take fifth with
$5.9 million, for Paramount's Sonic the Hedgehog 2 to decrease only 10 percent to follow in sixth with $3.7 million and for A24's well-received Everything Everywhere All At Once to slow a very slim 1 percent
to claim seventh place with $3.1 million. |
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4-Day predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) |
$143.0 M | $143.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Disney) |
$20.5 M | $374.8 M | -37% | 4 |
| 3 | The Bob's Burgers Movie (Disney / 20th Century) |
$13.8 M | $13.8 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Downton Abbey: A New Era (Focus) |
$9.3 M | $31.9 M | -42% | 2 |
| 5 | The Bad Guys (Universal / DreamWorks Animation) |
$5.9 M | $82.6 M | -4% | 6 |
| 6 | Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (Paramount) |
$3.7 M | $186.3 M | -10% | 8 |
| 7 | Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) |
$3.1 M | $57.4 M | -1% | 10 |
| 8 | The Lost City (Paramount) |
$1.7 M | $101.6 M | +9% | 10 |
| 9 | Men (A24) |
$1.6 M | $6.3 M | -51% | 2 |
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