Weekend Box Office Predictions
May 20 - May 22, 2022
Published on May 19, 2022 at 5:45PM Pacific |
| This weekend Disney's Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness will look to lead the domestic box office for a third consecutive frame. Last weekend the latest installment of the Marvel Cinematic Universe
(MCU) declined a very sharp 67 percent for a second weekend haul of $61.76 million (which suggests that the film isn't going over as well with audiences as its B+ CinemaScore rating would typically indicate). During the midweek this
week, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness is showing signs of stabilizing somewhat (the film's Wednesday performance was down 57 percent from the previous Wednesday), but likely not to the extent necessary to avoid another
sharper than usual decline for an MCU film this weekend. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness will be holding onto IMAX screens this weekend, but at the same time the film will be losing a sizable percentage of its
average overall showtimes per location from last weekend. Look for Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness to decline 54 percent this weekend for a first place take of $28.5 million. |
| Arriving in domestic theatres this weekend is Focus' Downton Abbey: A New Era. The second Downton Abbey theatrical film (and follow-up to 2019's Downton Abbey) has already been playing in a number of
international markets for a few weeks now, with the film having grossed $29.7 million internationally as of this past Sunday. Downton Abbey: A New Era was directed by Simon Curtis and features an ensemble cast that includes
Hugh Bonneville, Jim Carter, Michelle Dockery, Elizabeth McGovern and Maggie Smith. Focus is releasing Downton Abbey: A New Era in a wide 3,817 locations this weekend and the film will have Thursday preview shows beginning at
7PM (in addition to earlier sneaks on Wednesday). On the average, critical reviews for Downton Abbey: A New Era have been good. |
| Understandably, there doesn't appear to be as much excitement around Downton Abbey: A New Era as there was around 2019's Downton Abbey
(which opened with a strong $31.03 million, before going to go gross $96.85 million domestically), but fans of the series should still be able to help Downton Abbey: A New Era get off to a respectable start this weekend. The
recent debuts for Downton Abbey: A New Era in Australia, France and the United Kingdom all ended up in the range of 60 percent to 65 percent in comparison to the respective debuts for 2019's Downton Abbey in those like markets. That
is something to keep in mind for this weekend's domestic launch, as well as the fact that in general older moviegoers haven't been as quick to return to theatres as younger moviegoers have since re-opening. BoxOfficeReport is
predicting that Downton Abbey: A New Era will open in second place this weekend with $18.0 million (for a per-location average of $4,716 for the frame). |
| Last weekend Universal and DreamWorks Animation's The Bad Guys declined 26.5 percent to remain in second place with $7.03 million, while Paramount's Sonic the Hedgehog 2 decreased just 22.7 percent
to continue to claim third with $4.65 million. Both films may hold up even better this weekend than they did last weekend, especially with no new family films entering the marketplace this weekend
(though Disney's Chip 'n Dale: Rescue Rangers is debuting via streaming on Disney+ on Friday). A 19 percent decrease from last weekend would give The Bad Guys a third place take of $5.7 million and a similar 18 percent decline would
be good enough for a fifth place take of $3.8 million for Sonic the Hedgehog 2. |
| A24's new wide release Men will likely find itself in fourth place this weekend. The Alex Garland directed horror film stars Jessie Buckley and Rory Kinnear. Men will be screening in
2,212 locations this weekend and will also have Thursday preview shows beginning at 7PM. Critical reviews for Men have been good, but not great. Garland and A24 previously had box office success back in 2015 with Ex Machina, which
grossed $5.35 million in its first weekend of semi-wide release (in 1,255 locations), after two weeks of platform release. A24's recent X, which debuted with $4.28 million back in March, may also prove to be a good comparison
for Men, as like X, Men looks to be a non-mainstream horror film aimed at a rather niche audience (where excitement among online movie fans likely won't transfer over to more general audiences). BoxOfficeReport
is predicting that Men will start out with $4.8 million this weekend (for a per-location average of $2,170). |
| In other box office news for A24, this weekend will see the distributor's Everything Everywhere All At Once surpass the $50.02 million final domestic gross of 2019's Uncut Gems to become the
highest grossing film ever for A24 domestically. Last weekend Everything Everywhere All At Once declined a very slim 6 percent to remain in sixth with $3.32 million. With some audience overlap from Men,
Everything Everywhere All At Once likely won't hold up quite as well this weekend, but in the bigger picture the film should still have another very nice hold. A 22 percent decrease from last weekend would transfer into a
sixth place take of $2.6 million for Everything Everywhere All At Once, which would bring the film's domestic total through Sunday to roughly $51.7 million. |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, Warner's Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore could decline a solid 37 percent to take seventh with $1.60 million, Universal's Firestarter could
fall a sharp 59.5 percent to land in eighth with a similar $1.55 million and even with new competition from Downton Abbey: A New Era, Paramount's The Lost City may decline just 32 percent to claim ninth with $1.15 million. |
|
|
Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Disney) |
$28.5 M | $338.7 M | -54% | 3 |
| 2 | Downton Abbey: A New Era (Focus) |
$18.0 M | $18.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | The Bad Guys (Universal / DreamWorks Animation) |
$5.7 M | $73.9 M | -19% | 5 |
| 4 | Men (A24) |
$4.8 M | $4.8 M | NEW | 1 |
| 5 | Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (Paramount) |
$3.8 M | $180.8 M | -18% | 7 |
| 6 | Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) |
$2.6 M | $51.7 M | -22% | 9 |
| 7 | Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (Warner Bros.) |
$1.60 M | $92.7 M | -37% | 6 |
| 8 | Firestarter (Universal) |
$1.55 M | $6.6 M | -60% | 2 |
| 9 | The Lost City (Paramount) |
$1.15 M | $98.9 M | -32% | 9 |
|
|
Follow BoxOfficeReport on Twitter |
Find BoxOfficeReport on Facebook |