Weekend Box Office Predictions
April 29 - May 1, 2022
Published on April 28, 2022 at 5:30PM Pacific |
| After significantly exceeding expectations last weekend with a first place debut of $23.95 million, Universal and DreamWorks Animation's The Bad Guys shouldn't have a problem remaining in first place this
weekend. The Bad Guys has gone over well with both critics and audiences (the film received a strong A rating on CinemaScore). And thanks in part to the lack of new direct competition this weekend; The Bad Guys will be
holding onto a very high percentage of its average showtimes per location from last weekend. Films from DreamWorks Animation do tend to experience fairly sizable second weekend declines, but that is less likely to be the case with
The Bad Guys this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that The Bad Guys will decline a very solid 35 percent to hold steady in first place this weekend with $15.5 million. |
| Last weekend saw Paramount's Sonic the Hedgehog 2 take second place with $15.65 million. While that represented a sizable 47 percent decline, the sequel did stabilize from its 59 percent second weekend
decrease and also had to deal with new competition from The Bad Guys. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 should continue to stabilize this weekend, especially since the film will have a far stronger average showtimes per location hold
this weekend than it has had each of the past two weekends. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (perhaps more than any other holdover this weekend) is also likely to receive a boost from moviegoers looking to catch the film (or catch it again)
before Disney's highly anticipated Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness enters the marketplace next weekend. A decline of just 27 percent would give Sonic the Hedgehog 2 a second weekend take of $11.4 million this
weekend. |
| Warner's Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore is coming off a second weekend hold which saw the film decline a very sharp 67 percent to claim third with $14.00 million. This weekend
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore should see some significant stabilization from last weekend's hold, but at the same time, the film's hold likely won't stabilize as much as it could, due in part to
The Secrets of Dumbledore taking a bigger percentage hit to its average showtimes per location this weekend than any other current wide release. As part of that, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore is also losing some of its
IMAX showtimes and screens to Everything Everywhere All At Once this weekend. Look for Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore to decline a respectable 44 percent from last weekend to place in third with $7.8 million. |
| Speaking of A24's Everything Everywhere All At Once, the critically acclaimed film is coming off of a terrific hold, which saw the film decline a slim 12 percent to claim sixth place with $5.43 million
(and that was in the face of new direct competition from both The Northman and The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent). With Everything Everywhere All At Once playing on select IMAX screens
(and other select PLF screens) this weekend, the film should hold up even better this weekend than it did last weekend. Everything Everywhere All At Once could climb two spots and 18 percent from last weekend to move into fourth
place this weekend with $6.4 million. |
| Focus' The Northman debuted in line with expectations last weekend with a fourth place take of $12.29 million. While it didn't perform well with its production budget in mind, last weekend's start for
The Northman was respectable with the film's rather average amount of average showtimes per location in mind. The Northman has gone over well with critics, but doesn't look to be going over quite as well with audiences
after receiving a still respectable B rating on CinemaScore. Fans of director Robert Eggers should also lead to built-in front-loading, though the extent of that front-loading may be eased a bit this weekend by the lack of major new
releases. Look for The Northman to decline a sizable, but understandable 51 percent to round out this weekend's top five with $6.0 million. |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, Lionsgate's The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent could decline a sizable 47 percent to claim sixth place with $3.8 million, while Paramount's
The Lost City could decrease a slim 19 percent to follow in seventh place with $3.5 million. |
| The weekend's one new wide release is Open Road and Briarcliff's Memory. The Martin Campbell directed action thriller stars Liam Neeson, Guy Pearce and Monica Bellucci. There doesn't look to be much
awareness for the film and critical reviews being largely negative won't help matters either. Memory marks the fourth Neeson-led film from Open Road and Briarcliff since October of 2020. The two most recent of those films, this year's
Blacklight and last year's The Marksman respectively opened with $3.50 million and $3.10 million. It wouldn't be a surprise for Memory to open in the same range, so look for the film to debut in eighth place this
weekend with $3.2 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 10 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | The Bad Guys (Universal / DreamWorks Animation) |
$15.5 M | $43.9 M | -35% | 2 |
| 2 | Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (Paramount) |
$11.4 M | $161.0 M | -27% | 4 |
| 3 | Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (Warner Bros.) |
$7.8 M | $79.0 M | -44% | 3 |
| 4 | Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) |
$6.4 M | $36.3 M | +18% | 6 |
| 5 | The Northman (Focus) |
$6.0 M | $22.5 M | -51% | 2 |
| 6 | The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent (Lionsgate) |
$3.8 M | $13.4 M | -47% | 2 |
| 7 | The Lost City (Paramount) |
$3.5 M | $90.4 M | -19% | 6 |
| 8 | Memory (Open Road / Briarcliff) |
$3.2 M | $3.2 M | NEW | 1 |
| 9 | Father Stu (Sony / Columbia) |
$2.2 M | $17.6 M | -34% | 3 |
| 10 | Morbius (Sony / Columbia) |
$1.4 M | $71.4 M | -39% | 5 |
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