Weekend Box Office Predictions
April 22 - April 24, 2022
Published on April 21, 2022 at 6:30PM Pacific |
| It looks to be shaping up to be a close three-way race for first place this weekend between Universal and DreamWorks Animation's The Bad Guys, Paramount's Sonic the Hedgehog 2 and Warner's
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore. |
| Universal and DreamWorks Animation's The Bad Guys is being released in 4,008 locations this weekend and will also have Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. The computer animated film was directed by
Pierre Perifel and features the vocal talents of Sam Rockwell, Marc Maron, Anthony Ramos, Craig Robinson and Awkwafina. Over the past several weeks, The Bad Guys has already had a staggered release throughout a number of international
markets, with the film having grossed a respectable $51.9 million internationally through this past Sunday. The last computer animated film from DreamWorks Animation, last year's The Boss Baby: Family Business, debuted with
$16.00 million. While pre-release anticipation for The Bad Guys doesn't appear to be any higher than it was for The Boss Baby: Family Business, The Bad Guys should get at least a small boost from opening exclusively in theatres
(whereas The Boss Baby: Family Business opened day-and-date theatrically and via streaming on Peacock). On the average, critical reviews for The Bad Guys have been very good. On the average, The Bad Guys also looks to
be getting the highest amount of showtimes per location among this weekend's three new wide releases. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that The Bad Guys will debut with $17.5 million this weekend, which would likely be good enough for first
place and would give the film a per-location average of $4,366 for the frame. |
| Paramount's Sonic the Hedgehog 2 is coming off of a second weekend performance that saw the sequel decline a sharp 59 percent to place in second with $29.30 million. With its second weekend decline now
behind it, the well-received Sonic the Hedgehog 2 is likely to stabilize significantly this weekend. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 is also likely to get a boost this weekend from the fact that family films typically hold up very
well the weekend after Easter weekend. At the same time, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 will be facing new competition for family audiences from The Bad Guys this weekend and as a video game based film, will also likely still be
dealing with some built-in front-loading, especially since the film will be experiencing a significant decline in its average showtimes per location in comparison to last weekend. A respectable 43 percent decrease would transfer into
$16.7 million for Sonic the Hedgehog 2 this weekend, which would already bring the film to the brink of matching the $148.97 million final domestic gross of 2020's Sonic the Hedgehog. |
| Last weekend Warner's Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore debuted in first place with $42.15 million, which was towards the lower end of already scaled back expectations. While
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore received a solid (but unimpressive) B+ rating on CinemaScore, at the same time the film has received mixed critical reviews and has also displayed significant early front-loading within
its initial daily holds (even with the Easter holiday in mind). Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore will receive a bit of a boost this weekend from holding onto its IMAX screens, but on the other hand the film will see
its average showtimes per location take a larger percentage hit than most other recent high-profile films have in their second weekend. Look for Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore to decline a very sharp 62 percent this
weekend to gross $16.0 million, which would likely place the film in third for the frame. |
| In addition to Universal releasing The Bad Guys this weekend, fellow NBCUniversal distributor Focus is releasing The Northman this weekend. The Robert Eggers directed action drama features an ensemble cast
that includes Alexander Skarsgård, Nicole Kidman, Claes Bang, Anya Taylor-Joy and Ethan Hawke. The Northman is being released in 3,231 locations this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 7PM. Critical reviews
for The Northman have been very strong. While marketing for The Northman has felt scaled back for a film of its size, there still appears to be a decent amount of anticipation for the film, especially among online moviegoers. The
strength of the film's trailer, in combination with the film's strong critical reviews and fans of Eggers (who saw his 2016's The Witch debut with $8.80 million from just 2,046 locations), is likely enough for
The Northman to get off to a respectable start this weekend. In addition to the scaled back marketing for the film, potential for The Northman will also be limited at least somewhat this weekend by the film having a rather
average amount of showtimes per location on the average. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that The Northman will debut in fourth place with $12.5 million, which would give the film a weekend per-location average of $3,869. |
| Also opening in wide release this weekend is Lionsgate's The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent. The Tom Gormican directed action comedy stars Nicolas Cage as a fictionalized version of Nicolas Cage and
also features Pedro Pascal, Ike Barinholtz, Neil Patrick Harris and Tiffany Haddish. The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent is opening in 3,036 locations this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 6PM. As
with The Northman, critical reviews for The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent have been very strong. Unfortunately, as a non-mainstream film, overall anticipation for The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent feels
muted, especially with the film's strong critical reviews in mind. Furthermore, The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent will also have to deal with very direct competition this weekend from both The Northman and
Everything Everywhere All At Once. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent will round out this weekend's top five with a debut of $6.9 million (for a per-location average of $2,273). |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, A24's Everything Everywhere All At Once could decline a slim 19 percent to place in sixth with $5.0 million; despite new direct competition from both
The Northman and The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent, thanks in part to continued exceptional word of mouth and another expected location count increase this weekend. Paramount's The Lost City and Sony's
Father Stu could also be in store for very nice holds this weekend, as respective 28 percent declines would give The Lost City $4.5 million for seventh place and Father Stu $3.9 million for eighth place
(it should be noted that last weekend's $5.40 million three-day weekend for Father Stu was deflated a bit by that film's Wednesday opening). |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 10 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | The Bad Guys (Universal / DreamWorks Animation) |
$17.5 M | $17.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (Paramount) |
$16.7 M | $147.5 M | -43% | 3 |
| 3 | Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (Warner Bros.) |
$16.0 M | $69.2 M | -62% | 2 |
| 4 | The Northman (Focus) |
$12.5 M | $12.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 5 | The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent (Lionsgate) |
$6.9 M | $6.9 M | NEW | 1 |
| 6 | Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) |
$5.0 M | $26.4 M | -19% | 5 |
| 7 | The Lost City (Paramount) |
$4.5 M | $85.5 M | -28% | 5 |
| 8 | Father Stu (Sony / Columbia) |
$3.9 M | $14.5 M | -28% | 2 |
| 9 | Morbius (Sony / Columbia) |
$2.2 M | $69.1 M | -53% | 4 |
| 10 | The Batman (Warner Bros.) |
$1.8 M | $368.0 M | -52% | 8 |
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