Weekend Box Office Predictions
April 15 - April 17, 2022
Published on April 13, 2022 at 8:15PM Pacific |
| Upon its arrival in the marketplace, Warner's Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore appears set to lead the Easter weekend box office frame. The third installment of the Fantastic Beasts film
series was directed by David Yates and stars Eddie Redmayne, Jude Law, Ezra Miller and Mads Mikkelsen. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore will be playing in an estimated 4,100+ locations this weekend, will be playing on
IMAX screens and will have Thursday preview shows beginning early at 2PM. The previous installment of the Fantastic Beasts franchise, 2018's Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, opened with $62.16 million, which
represented a 16.5 percent decline from the $74.40 million debut of 2016's Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. |
| Unfortunately for a number of reasons, including, but not limited to the mixed reception to The Crimes of Grindelwald, the replacement of Johnny Depp with Mikkelsen and J. K. Rowling having alienated some of
the Wizarding World fanbase, it appears likely that The Secrets of Dumbledore will experience an even larger percentage drop-off from The Crimes of Grindelwald than that film experienced in relation to its predecessor.
The Secrets of Dumbledore started out its international run this past weekend with $56.9 million from 22 select markets. While that may look solid on the surface, the international performance thus far also points towards
The Secrets of Dumbledore experiencing a significant drop-off from The Crimes of Grindelwald domestically. On a positive note, while critical reviews for The Secrets of Dumbledore have been mixed, they do mark an
improvement over the critical reviews for The Crimes of Grindelwald. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore will debut with $46.0 million this weekend, which would represent the third
largest opening weekend of 2022 thus far. |
| Paramount's Sonic the Hedgehog 2 is coming off a very strong first place debut of $72.11 million. As was the case with its processor, 2020's Sonic the Hedgehog, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 looks to
be going over very well with audiences after receiving an A rating on CinemaScore. At the same time, there will no doubt be some initial built-in front-loading for the video game based Sonic the Hedgehog 2. Sonic the Hedgehog
declined 55 percent in its second weekend and on top of that Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore will have more of a presence in the marketplace than The Call of the Wild did during the second weekend of
Sonic the Hedgehog. Midweek grosses thus far for Sonic the Hedgehog 2 also haven't been out of this world, though some of that is likely a result of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 potentially being more weekend heavy than
Sonic the Hedgehog was. After its strong performance last weekend, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 will benefit this weekend from holding onto a high percentage of its average showtimes per location. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 could
take in $32.5 million this weekend, which would match the 55 percent second weekend decline of Sonic the Hedgehog, while also representing a noteworthy increase over the $26.19 million second weekend performance of
Sonic the Hedgehog. |
| The weekend's other new wide release is Sony's Father Stu. The Rosalind Ross directed drama stars Mark Wahlberg, Jacki Weaver and Mel Gibson, and is being aimed at faith-based audiences just in time for
the Easter holiday. Father Stu is opening in 2,705 locations on Wednesday and also had Tuesday previews that began at 4PM. On the average, critical reviews for Father Stu have been mixed, more so negative than positive, but
the film has the potential to be critic-proof among its target audience. At the same time, Father Stu is rated R, which could make a break-out performance with faith-based audiences more difficult. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that
Father Stu will take third place over the three-day weekend with $7.2 million and that the film's five-day start will come in at $10.2 million. |
| After experiencing a larger than expected second weekend decline, last weekend Paramount's The Lost City stabilized nicely be declining 39 percent for a third place third weekend gross of $9.03 million. While
The Lost City will face new competition from Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore this weekend, at the same time The Lost City looks to be holding onto a significantly higher percentage of its average showtimes per
location than it did last weekend. A 37 percent decline would give the well-received The Lost City a fourth place take of $5.7 million this weekend. |
| A24's Everything Everywhere All At Once is coming off of a strong expansion into semi-wide release last weekend, which saw the critically acclaimed film take sixth place with an estimated $6.06 million from
1,250 locations. In addition to exceptional critical reviews and going over very well with audiences, Everything Everywhere All At Once will also be helped out this weekend by the expected expansion of the film into wide release.
Everything Everywhere All At Once could decline a very slim 9 percent to round out this weekend's top five with $5.5 million. |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, Universal's Ambulance, Sony's Morbius and Warner's The Batman could find themselves bunched closely together for places sixth through eighth.
While word of mouth looks to be solid for Ambulance, the film will still take a hit this weekend from losing IMAX screens to The Secrets of Dumbledore and could decline 53 percent to gross $4.1 million. Morbius
should stabilize at least somewhat from last weekend's very sharp 74 percent second weekend decline, but could still decrease a sharp 61 percent to register $4.0 million. The Batman has been experiencing very steady percentage
declines thus far and could continue to do so this weekend by decreasing a solid 40 percent for a take of $3.9 million. |
|
|
Predictions for this weekend's top 8 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (Warner Bros.) |
$46.0 M | $46.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (Paramount) |
$32.5 M | $122.0 M | -55% | 2 |
| 3 | Father Stu (Sony / Columbia) |
$7.2 M | $10.2 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | The Lost City (Paramount) |
$5.7 M | $77.8 M | -37% | 4 |
| 5 | Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) |
$5.5 M | $16.9 M | -9% | 4 |
| 6 | Ambulance (Universal) |
$4.1 M | $15.7 M | -53% | 2 |
| 7 | Morbius (Sony / Columbia) |
$4.0 M | $64.2 M | -61% | 3 |
| 8 | The Batman (Warner Bros.) |
$3.9 M | $365.1 M | -40% | 7 |
|
|
Follow BoxOfficeReport on Twitter |
Find BoxOfficeReport on Facebook |