Weekend Box Office Predictions
February 25 - February 27, 2022
Published on February 24, 2022 at 6:00PM Pacific |
| After exceeding expectations last weekend, Sony's Uncharted will look to comfortably remain in first place this weekend. Over the Presidents' Day holiday weekend, Uncharted started out with
respective three-day and four-day openings of $44.01 million and $51.32 million. While critical reviews for the Ruben Fleischer directed action-adventure film starring Tom Holland and Mark Wahlberg have been mostly negative, Uncharted
looks to be going over much better with audiences given its daily holds last weekend and the film's solid B+ rating on CinemaScore. Uncharted (and holdovers in general) should also get a bit of a boost this weekend from
moviegoers who will want to catch the film before Warner's highly anticipated The Batman enters the marketplace next weekend on March 4. Uncharted will also be holding onto a high percentage of its showtimes from last
weekend, including its IMAX screens. With all of that said, in being based on a video game, there should still be some built-in initial front-loading for Uncharted. Back in 2020 the weekend after Presidents' Day weekend, fellow
video game adaptation Sonic the Hedgehog declined 55 percent in its second weekend to take in $26.19 million. Uncharted could hold up a bit better than that this weekend by declining sizable, but reasonable 51 percent to
take first place with $21.7 million. |
| Last weekend also saw United Artists Releasing and MGM's Dog exceed expectations. The buddy/dog comedy directed by Channing Tatum and Reid Carolin, and also starring Tatum, delivered respective three-day
and four-day openings of $14.88 million and $17.39 million. In addition to going over well with critics, Dog looks to be going over well with audiences after receiving a healthy A- rating on CinemaScore. Dog will also get a
bit of a boost from playing in 150 more locations than it did last weekend (for a total of 3,827 locations). One factor that could have a relative negative impact on the PG-13 rated Dog this weekend (and going forward) is that
given the film's daily patterns the past week and reported demos, Dog appears to be playing much more like a Channing Tatum-led film for adults as opposed to a family film. That could lead to Dog being a bit more
front-loaded than a typical animal comedy. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Dog will decline a solid 41.5 percent to hold steady in second place this weekend with $8.7 million. |
| Sony's Spider-Man: No Way Home is coming off of another spectacular hold, which saw the film decline a very slim 1 percent during last weekend's three-day frame to claim third with $7.46 million. Without a
holiday boost, Spider-Man: No Way Home likely won't hold up quite that well this weekend, but the event film should still be in store for another terrific hold, especially since this weekend will offer moviegoers a chance to
catch the film (or catch the film again) before The Batman enters the marketplace next weekend. Look for Spider-Man: No Way Home to decline only 11.5 percent this weekend to continue to claim third with $6.6 million. |
| Disney and 20th Century's Death on the Nile was down a sizable, but largely expected, 49 percent last weekend to take fourth over the three-day frame with $6.56 million. With its second weekend decline behind it
(which also saw the film lose its IMAX screens to Uncharted), Death on the Nile should be able to stabilize this weekend. A very solid 33 percent decline from last weekend would give Death on the Nile $4.4 million
this weekend, to keep the film in fourth place. |
| The weekend's one new wide release is Open Road and Briarcliff's Studio 666. The R-rated horror comedy was directed by BJ McDonnell and stars Dave Grohl and the rest of the Foo Fighters.
Studio 666 is opening in 2,306 locations this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. On the average, critical reviews for the film and been mixed, but more so positive than negative. While
Studio 666 isn't expected to light the box office on fire, between Foo Fighters fans and horror fans, the film could have a bit of a presence at the box office this weekend
(before likely falling off extremely quickly beyond its first week in theatres). BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Studio 666 will round out this weekend's top five with a debut of $4.0 million (for a per-location average of $1,735). |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, look for Paramount's Jackass Forever to decline a very solid 33 percent to take sixth place with $3.5 million, for Universal's Sing 2 to decrease only
19 percent to follow in seventh with $2.3 million and for fellow Universal release Marry Me to decline a respectable 44 percent to claim eighth place with $2.1 million. |
| This weekend will also see United Artists Releasing and MGM's Cyrano open in semi-wide release (in 797 locations). The Joe Wright directed musical romance stars Peter Dinklage, Haley Bennett and
Kelvin Harrison Jr. Critical reviews for Cyrano have been very good. The hope was for Cyrano to be a significant awards season player, but ultimately the film only received one Academy Award nomination
(for Best Costume Design). Cyrano will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 7PM. Cyrano could have a respectable per-location average this weekend, but the film's location count will hold back its already modest
overall potential. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Cyrano will debut in ninth place this weekend with $1.75 million (for a per-location average of $2,196). |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 10 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Uncharted (Sony / Columbia) |
$21.7 M | $81.8 M | -51% | 2 |
| 2 | Dog (United Artists Releasing / MGM) |
$8.7 M | $29.5 M | -42% | 2 |
| 3 | Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sony / Columbia) |
$6.6 M | $780.7 M | -12% | 11 |
| 4 | Death on the Nile (Disney / 20th Century) |
$4.4 M | $32.6 M | -33% | 3 |
| 5 | Studio 666 (Open Road / Briarcliff) |
$4.0 M | $4.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 6 | Jackass Forever (Paramount) |
$3.5 M | $52.4 M | -33% | 4 |
| 7 | Sing 2 (Universal) |
$2.3 M | $151.4 M | -19% | 10 |
| 8 | Marry Me (Universal) |
$2.1 M | $20.5 M | -44% | 3 |
| 9 | Cyrano (United Artists Releasing / MGM) |
$1.75 M | $1.75 M | NEW | 1 |
| 10 | Scream (Paramount) |
$1.25 M | $79.1 M | -36% | 7 |
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