Weekend Box Office Predictions
February 11 - February 13, 2022
Published on February 10, 2022 at 5:45PM Pacific |
| This weekend sees three new wide releases enter the theatrical marketplace, with Disney and 20th Century's Death on the Nile looking to be the favorite to take first place for the frame.
Death on the Nile is the follow-up to 2017's Murder on the Orient Express and like Murder on the Orient Express, Death on the Nile also stars and was directed by Kenneth Branagh and is also adapted from an
Agatha Christie novel. The ensemble cast for Death on the Nile includes Tom Bateman, Gal Gadot, Armie Hammer, Emma Mackey, Letitia Wright and Annette Benning. Back in November of 2017, Murder on the Orient Express opened
with $28.68 million and went on to gross $102.83 million domestically. |
| Unfortunately, the older target demo for Death on the Nile hasn't been in a hurry to return to theatres for most films since re-opening and on top of that the film has had to deal with multiple release date
delays, which seem to have hampered anticipation for the film to begin with. Death on the Nile and the marketplace in general will also have to deal with Super Bowl LVI on Sunday, which could potentially push more Valentine's Day
audiences to wait until Valentine's Day itself on Monday as well. Death on the Nile is playing exclusively in theatres this weekend in 3,280 locations, will be playing on IMAX screens and will have Thursday preview shows
beginning at 5PM. Death on the Nile opening to just under half of Murder on the Orient Express feels reasonable and BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Death on the Nile will take first place this weekend with $13.7 million
(for a per-location average of $4,177). |
| Last weekend Paramount's Jackass Forever debuted in first place with a healthy $23.15 million. Jackass Forever has gone over well with critics and also looks to be going over well with audiences
after receiving a solid B+ rating on CinemaScore. Previous second weekend declines for Jackass sequels have included 50 percent for 2006's Jackass Number Two and 58 percent for 2010's Jackass 3D.
Jackass Forever could find itself experiencing a similar second weekend decline, especially with the competition from the Super Bowl on Sunday, before potentially stabilizing more after this weekend. A 54 percent decline would
give Jackass Forever $10.6 million for the frame, which would likely be good enough for second place this weekend. |
| Also opening in wide release this weekend is Universal's Marry Me. The Kat Coiro directed romantic comedy stars Jennifer Lopez, Owen Wilson and Maluma. Marry Me is opening day-and-date this weekend,
theatrically in 3,642 locations and via streaming on Peacock. Anticipation for Marry Me appears to be limited among more general audiences, but at the same time fans of Lopez appear to be excited about the film and are likely to
show up this weekend. The approaching Valentine's Day holiday could also give the film a bit of a boost this weekend, as could the film's critical reviews, which have been solid on the average
(and likely stronger than most were expecting). Look for Marry Me to debut in third place this weekend with $9.3 million (for a per-location average of $2,554). Marry Me should also have a very strong hold on Valentine's Day Monday. |
| Sony's Spider-Man: No Way Home is coming off a spectacular hold last weekend, which saw the film decline just 14 percent to take third with $9.51 million. Last weekend Spider-Man: No Way Home and
certain other holdovers received a boost from theatres re-opening in the Canadian province of Ontario. This weekend holdovers will receive a bit of a boost from theatres re-opening in the Canadian province of Quebec, though obviously
on the other hand holdovers will have to deal with Super Bowl LVI this weekend. With that in mind, Spider-Man: No Way Home is unlikely to hold up quite as well as it did last weekend, but should still hold up very well
(especially for Super Bowl weekend). BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Spider-Man: No Way Home will decline 22 percent to claim fourth with $7.4 million. That will place Spider-Man: No Way Home on the brink of surpassing
the $760.51 million lifetime domestic gross of 2009's Avatar to move into third place on the all-time unadjusted domestic list. |
| After a modest $9.87 million second place start last weekend, Lionsgate's Moonfall is likely to fall sharply in its second weekend. In addition to mixed critical reviews, mixed word of mouth and dealing
with the Super Bowl, Moonfall is also losing its IMAX screens to Death on the Nile this weekend. Moonfall could fall a sharp 66 percent to land in fifth this weekend with $3.4 million. |
| The weekend's third wide release is Briarcliff's Blacklight. The Mark Williams directed action thriller stars Liam Neeson. Blacklight represents the third Neeson-led film from Briarcliff since
re-opening; following 2020's Honest Thief and last year's The Marksman. Blacklight is opening exclusively in theatres this weekend in 2,772 locations (and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM), which gives it a larger opening location count than Honest Thief and especially The Marksman had. At the same time, there feels like there is even less
awareness for Blacklight than there was for either Honest Thief or The Marksman, so Blacklight could still find itself opening just below the $3.10 million three-day start of The Marksman.
BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Blacklight will debut with $2.9 million this weekend. |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, Universal's Sing 2 could decline just 26 percent to finish ahead of Blacklight with $3.1 million for the frame, while Paramount's Scream could
decrease a solid 41 percent to finish just behind Blacklight with $2.8 million. And on the heels of its Academy Award nominations for Best Picture, Best Director and Best Original Screenplay, United Artists Releasing and
MGM's Licorice Pizza is finally expanding to wide release this weekend (the film will be playing in 1,977 locations). A 94 percent Oscar nomination bump over last weekend would transfer into $1.25 million for
Licorice Pizza this weekend. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Death on the Nile (Disney / 20th Century) |
$13.7 M | $13.7 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Jackass Forever (Paramount) |
$10.6 M | $40.0 M | -54% | 2 |
| 3 | Marry Me (Universal) |
$9.3 M | $9.3 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sony / Columbia) |
$7.4 M | $759.2 M | -22% | 9 |
| 5 | Moonfall (Lionsgate) |
$3.4 M | $15.7 M | -66% | 2 |
| 6 | Sing 2 (Universal) |
$3.1 M | $143.5 M | -26% | 8 |
| 7 | Blacklight (Briarcliff) |
$2.9 M | $2.9 M | NEW | 1 |
| 8 | Scream (Paramount) |
$2.8 M | $73.1 M | -41% | 5 |
| 9 | Licorice Pizza (United Artists Releasing / MGM) |
$1.25 M | $14.3 M | +94% | 12 |
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