Weekend Box Office Predictions
October 29 - October 31, 2021
Published on October 28, 2021 at 5:00PM Pacific |
| Last weekend saw Warner Bros. and Legendary's Dune debut with a healthy $41.01 million. That represented the largest opening weekend to date for a day-and-date HBO Max release from Warner Bros. It has been
commonplace for Warner's higher profile day-and-date releases to experience especially large second weekend declines (a number of films have had second weekend declines in the range of 57 to 73 percent). And while Dune will no
doubt experience a sharp decline this weekend, the film may still be able to have a better second weekend hold than many of Warner's other day-and-date releases have had, thanks in part to good critical reviews, healthy word of mouth
(Dune received a healthy A- rating on CinemaScore) and perhaps most importantly this weekend, in part to the film holding onto its IMAX screens. Last weekend an estimated 22.5 percent of the overall opening weekend gross of
Dune came from IMAX screens and this weekend the film should get a boost from those who want to catch the film in IMAX before it loses those screens to Disney's Eternals next weekend. Look for Dune to decline a sharp, but
understandable 58.5 percent from last weekend to stay in first place for the frame with $17.0 million. |
| While it isn't opening as wide as either Last Night in Soho or Antlers, this weekend's highest grossing new release may prove to be Funimation's My Hero Academia: World Heroes' Mission. As of
publishing, an updated estimated theatre count for My Hero Academia: World Heroes' Mission isn't available, but it was initially announced that the film would be opening in 1,500+ locations this weekend.
My Hero Academia: World Heroes' Mission is the theatrical follow up to My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising, which was released domestically by Funimation back in February of 2020. Heroes Rising opened on a Wednesday and
had respective three-day weekend and five-day starts of $5.89 million and $9.29 million. With the aid of a higher opening weekend location count than that of Heroes Rising
(which fluctuated between 602 to 1,231 locations over the five-day frame), World Heroes' Mission shouldn't have a problem topping the $5.89 million three-day weekend of Heroes Rising and could come close to matching the
five-day start of that film. A factor that will limit My Hero Academia: World Heroes' Mission somewhat this weekend is that the film doesn't look to be having Thursday night preview shows. BoxOfficeReport is predicting an opening
weekend performance of $9.1 million for My Hero Academia: World Heroes' Mission. |
| Universal's Halloween Kills is coming off of a second weekend performance that saw the film decline a very sharp 71 percent to land in second place with $14.45 million. This weekend
Halloween Kills should stabilize in a big way (if only for a weekend), thanks in part to the Halloween holiday falling on Sunday and in part to the film maintaining most of its locations this weekend. One factor that will make it
tougher for Halloween Kills to have an even stronger rebound this weekend is that the film will be taking a sizable average showtimes per-location hit this weekend in comparison to last weekend. Halloween Kills could
decline a solid 38 percent this weekend for a third weekend gross of $9.0 million. |
| This weekend's widest new release is Focus' Last Night in Soho, which will be opening in 3,016 locations. The Edgar Wright directed horror film stars Thomasin McKenzie and Anya Taylor-Joy. On the average,
critical reviews for Last Night in Soho have been good, but not great. Last Night in Soho will have Thursday night preview shows beginning at 7PM and also had Wednesday night preview shows in select theatres. Wright's fanbase
will no doubt be the driving force for Last Night in Soho this weekend and the film will also receive a boost from playing on Dolby Cinema screens. However, the film will likely have issues appealing to moviegoers outside of
Wright's pre-established fanbase. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Last Night in Soho will open with $7.9 million this weekend. That would give the film a per-location average of $2,619 for the frame and would represent the largest
opening weekend for Focus since Harriet debuted with $11.68 million back in November of 2019. |
| With no new event films this weekend and the release of Disney's anticipated Eternals next weekend, this weekend will provide moviegoers with a chance to catch up with (or catch again) high-profile
holdovers such as United Artists Releasing's No Time To Die and Sony's Venom: Let There Be Carnage. Last weekend No Time To Die declined a sizable 49 percent to take third with $12.20 million, while
Venom: Let There Be Carnage decreased a respectable 44 percent to land in fourth with $9.30 million. This weekend should see both films hold up significantly better than they did last weekend. Respective 37 percent declines
would transfer into weekend grosses of $7.7 million for No Time To Die and $5.9 million for Venom: Let There Be Carnage. |
| Also arriving in theatres this weekend is Disney's release of Searchlight's Antlers. The Scott Cooper directed horror film stars Keri Russell, Jesse Plemons and Jeremy T. Thomas. Critical reviews for
Antlers have been mixed, but more so positive than negative. Antlers is opening in 2,800 locations this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 6PM. Anticipation for Antlers among online movie
fans appears to be softer than that for Last Night in Soho this weekend, but at the same time it's also possible that Antlers will make up some of that difference with walk-up Halloween weekend audiences. Back in late
August, fellow Searchlight horror film The Night House was only able to open with $2.86 million. With a larger theatre count and the aid of Halloween weekend, Antlers may be able to nearly double up the opening weekend of
The Night House with a debut of $5.6 million this weekend. That would give Antlers a per-location average of $2,000 for the frame. |
| After revitalizing the specialty market last weekend with a promising platform launch of $1.35 million from just 52 locations, Searchlight's The French Dispatch will be playing in a moderate 788 locations
this weekend. Critical reviews for the Wes Anderson directed anthology film have been good, but not as impressive as those of most of Anderson's previous films. It's no secret that specialty films have struggled since the re-opening of
theatres, but with Anderson's fanbase and the positive buzz surrounding the film after last weekend's newsworthy platform launch, The French Dispatch should continue to perform relatively well this weekend. A healthy
per-location average of $5,076 would transfer into $4.0 million for The French Dispatch this weekend. The French Dispatch is scheduled to receive another expansion next weekend on November 5. |
| As for this weekend's computer animated holdovers, the Halloween weekend frame is likely to be significantly more favorable to United Artists Releasing and MGM's The Addams Family 2 than it will be to Disney and 20th Century's
Ron's Gone Wrong. Ron's Gone Wrong could decline a sizable 48 percent to take in $3.8 million, while The Addams Family 2 could decrease just 27 percent to gross $3.3 million. Beyond this weekend, the well-received
Ron's Gone Wrong should begin to hold up significantly better, as long as the film is able to hold onto locations and showtimes. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 11 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Dune (Warner / Legendary) |
$17.0 M | $70.9 M | -59% | 2 |
| 2 | My Hero Academia: World Heroes' Mission (Funimation Films) |
$9.1 M | $9.1 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | Halloween Kills (Universal) |
$9.0 M | $86.0 M | -38% | 3 |
| 4 | Last Night in Soho (Focus) |
$7.9 M | $7.9 M | NEW | 1 |
| 5 | No Time To Die (United Artists Releasing / MGM) |
$7.7 M | $133.1 M | -37% | 4 |
| 6 | Venom: Let There Be Carnage (Sony / Columbia) |
$5.9 M | $190.6 M | -37% | 5 |
| 7 | Antlers (Disney / Searchlight) |
$5.6 M | $5.6 M | NEW | 1 |
| 8 | The French Dispatch (Disney / Searchlight) |
$4.0 M | $5.9 M | +197% | 2 |
| 9 | Ron's Gone Wrong (Disney / 20th Century) |
$3.8 M | $12.6 M | -48% | 2 |
| 10 | The Addams Family 2 (United Artists Releasing / MGM) |
$3.3 M | $52.9 M | -27% | 5 |
| 11 | Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Disney) |
$1.25 M | $222.9 M | -38% | 9 |
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