Weekend Box Office Predictions
October 22 - October 24, 2021
Published on October 21, 2021 at 4:15PM Pacific |
| The October box office continues to roll along this weekend with the domestic release of Warner Bros. and Legendary's Dune. The adaptation of the Frank Herbert sci-fi novel was directed by Denis Villeneuve and
features an ensemble cast that includes Timothée Chalamet, Rebecca Ferguson, Oscar Isaac, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista and Zendaya. Warner Bros. is releasing Dune day-and-date this weekend, theatrically and via
streaming on HBO Max. The film will also be playing on IMAX screens and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 6PM. IMAX and other PLF screens could give Dune an even larger than usual boost this weekend (percentage wise), as
there looks to be significant demand among the film's potential audience to watch the film on a premium screen. Critical reviews for Dune have been very good. Dune has already been playing in select international markets
for several weeks, with the film having totaled $129.7 million internationally through this past Sunday. At this point, there seems to be little question that theatrical box office potential for Dune will be held back somewhat by the
film being available on HBO Max. Thus far the largest opening weekend performances for day-and-date releases from Warner Bros. have been Godzilla vs. Kong ($31.63 million three-day / $48.10 million five-day) and
Space Jam: A New Legacy ($31.05 million three-day). Given that Godzilla vs. Kong was a Wednesday release, Dune should be able to register the largest three-day opening for a Warner Bros. film this year, but at the
same time Dune matching the five-day start of Godzilla vs. Kong in just three days feels unlikely. In terms of pre-pandemic comparisons, Villeneuve's previous film, Blade Runner 2049
(which was also released domestically by Warner Bros.) debuted with $32.75 million back in October of 2017. BoxOfficeReport is predicting a first place debut of $40.5 million for Dune this weekend. |
| Last weekend Halloween Kills outpaced expectations with a healthy first place start of $49.40 million. However, after a very strong Friday performance, the film has been displaying significant early
front-loading since Saturday. In fact, with $2.00 million on Wednesday, Halloween Kills actually fell to second place for the day behind No Time To Die (which took in $2.29 million). Due in part to likely being more of a weekend
film than No Time To Die, Halloween Kills should be able to move back ahead of No Time To Die over the weekend, but Halloween Kills looks to be in store for a very sharp second weekend percentage decline
nonetheless. Back in 2018, Halloween fell 59 percent in its second weekend, but that performance was boosted by it being Halloween weekend. With a B- rating on CinemaScore, word of mouth for Halloween Kills also doesn't
look to be as strong as it was for 2018's Halloween (which received a B+ CinemaScore rating). Look for Halloween Kills to fall 70 percent this weekend to land in second place with $14.8 million, before holding up far
better next weekend over Halloween weekend. |
| United Artists Releasing and MGM's No Time To Die is coming off of a second place take of $23.79 million, which was down 57 percent from the film's opening weekend performance. No Time To Die
has continued to stabilize during the midweek (the film's Wednesday performance was down 45 percent from the previous Wednesday), but unfortunately the film will be playing in 600 fewer locations this weekend than it did this past
week and will also be losing its IMAX screens to Dune. In addition to losing its IMAX screens to Dune, there should also be quite a bit of overlap between the audiences of No Time To Die and Dune.
No Time To Die could decline a sizable 53 percent this weekend to claim third with $11.2 million. |
| Sony's Venom: Let There Be Carnage declined 48 percent in its third weekend to gross $16.50 million. That represented the second largest third weekend gross of any film since re-opening
(behind only Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings). Venom: Let There Be Carnage has continued to stabilize a bit more during the midweek, as the film's Wednesday gross was down 45 percent from the previous
Wednesday. And unlike No Time To Die, Venom: Let There Be Carnage won't have to deal with losing IMAX screens this weekend. A 45 percent decline would transfer into a fourth place take of $9.0 million this weekend for
Venom: Let There Be Carnage. |
| This weekend will also see Disney release 20th Century's Ron's Gone Wrong. The computer animated film from Locksmith Animation was directed by Jean-Philippe Vine and Sarah Smith and features the
vocal talents of Zach Galifianakis, Jack Dylan Grazer, Ed Helms and Olivia Colman. Ron's Gone Wrong will be playing exclusively in theatres this weekend (in 3,560 locations) and will have Thursday preview shows beginning
at 6PM. Critical reviews for the film have been very good. Unfortunately, despite the film's good critical reviews, there looks to be very little demand for Ron's Gone Wrong among family audiences. And while the films
are obviously aimed at very different audiences, last weekend saw Disney's release of 20th Century's The Last Duel open with just $4.76 million. A number of animated films have opened in the teen-millions during 2021, but a
better comparison for Ron's Gone Wrong is likely to be the $6.10 million start of Spirit Untamed back in June. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Ron's Gone Wrong will round out this weekend's top five with a
modest debut of $6.0 million. |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, United Artists Releasing and MGM's The Addams Family 2 could decline a very solid 32 percent to claim sixth with $4.8 million, Disney's
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings could decrease a similar 31 percent to place in seventh with $2.3 million and despite strong critical reviews and good word of mouth, Disney and 20th Century's
The Last Duel could fall a sizable 54 percent in its second weekend to land in eighth place with $2.2 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 8 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Dune (Warner / Legendary) |
$40.5 M | $40.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Halloween Kills (Universal) |
$14.8 M | $73.3 M | -70% | 2 |
| 3 | No Time To Die (United Artists Releasing / MGM) |
$11.2 M | $119.9 M | -53% | 3 |
| 4 | Venom: Let There Be Carnage (Sony / Columbia) |
$9.0 M | $181.7 M | -45% | 4 |
| 5 | Ron's Gone Wrong (Disney / 20th Century) |
$6.0 M | $6.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 6 | The Addams Family 2 (United Artists Releasing / MGM) |
$4.8 M | $48.8 M | -32% | 4 |
| 7 | Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Disney) |
$2.3 M | $221.3 M | -31% | 8 |
| 8 | The Last Duel (Disney / 20th Century) |
$2.2 M | $8.7 M | -54% | 2 |
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