Weekend Box Office Predictions
October 15 - October 17, 2021
Published on October 14, 2021 at 4:45PM Pacific |
| The October marketplace will see another high profile release this weekend with Universal's Halloween Kills arriving in theatres in time for the upcoming Halloween holiday. The follow-up to 2018's
Halloween sees the return of Halloween director David Gordon Green and star Jamie Lee Curtis. Halloween Kills is being released day-and-date this weekend, theatrically in 3,705 locations and via streaming on
Peacock. The film will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 7PM. Back in October of 2018 Halloween debuted with an exceptional $76.22 million. Halloween Kills isn't expected to open in the same neighborhood as its
predecessor, due in part to less apparent interest to being with and the day-and-date release. Critical reviews for Halloween Kills being significantly weaker than those for 2018's Halloween won't help matters for
Halloween Kills either this weekend. At the same time, a sizable portion of the Halloween fanbase will still want to catch Halloween Kills in a theatre with other horror fans this weekend and as a follow-up to
2018's Halloween, Halloween Kills is likely to have more relative built-in front-loading towards opening weekend than its predecessor (especially with Warner's highly anticipated Dune opening next weekend). BoxOfficeReport
is predicting that Halloween Kills will debut in first place this weekend with $41.0 million, which would represent the second largest opening weekend for a horror film in 2021 thus far
(behind only A Quiet Place Part II) and would give the film a healthy per-location average of $11,066 for the frame. |
| United Artists Releasing and MGM's No Time To Die is coming off of a first place debut of $55.23 million last weekend. While that was below expectations, No Time To Die still registered the fifth
largest opening weekend since the re-opening of domestic theatres (and continues to perform much stronger internationally). No Time To Die showcased some early relative front-loading over opening weekend, but the film has showcased
healthy momentum during the midweek. The film's strong midweek holds this week are an indication that No Time To Die isn't as weekend-heavy of a film as say Venom: Let There Be Carnage and are likely also an early
indication of good word of mouth. No Time To Die received a healthy A- rating from CinemaScore audiences. No Time To Die will also be helped out this weekend by holding onto its IMAX screens. With all of that said, due
in part to Halloween Kills and The Last Duel entering the marketplace this weekend, No Time To Die will be taking a somewhat larger average showtimes per location hit this weekend than this year's other event films
have tended to experience during their respective second weekends of release. Second weekend percentage declines for more recent James Bond films have included 52.2 percent for 2015's Spectre, 53.5 percent for 2012's Skyfall and
60.4 percent for 2008's Quantum of Solace, so it wouldn't be a surprise for No Time To Die to experience a second weekend decline somewhere in the middle of those films. Look for No Time To Die to decrease
56 percent this weekend to place in second with $24.5 million. |
| In its second weekend, Sony's Venom: Let There Be Carnage declined a very sharp 65 percent to take second with $31.75 million, which still represented the second largest second weekend gross since re-opening.
Coming as no real surprise, Venom: Let There Be Carnage is proving to be more front-loaded than 2018's Venom was (Venom decreased 56 percent in its second weekend). In its third weekend of release
(which also happened to be the same weekend Halloween opened), Venom declined 48.5 percent to take in $18.04 million. Venom: Let There Be Carnage is likely to remain more front-loaded than Venom was, so look for
Venom: Let There Be Carnage to decline 52 percent this weekend to take third with $15.3 million. That would represent the second largest third weekend gross since re-opening (behind only Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings). |
| This weekend will also see Disney's release of 20th Century's The Last Duel. The Ridley Scott directed historical drama stars Matt Damon, Adam Driver, Jodie Comer and Ben Affleck. The Last Duel will
open exclusively in theatres this weekend in 3,065 locations and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 6PM. Critical reviews for the film have been strong. Unfortunately, despite the film's strong critical reviews and
high-profile cast, box office potential for The Last Duel will be limited by the film receiving only a handful of daily showtimes at most locations (due in part to the film's 152 minute length and to the film playing on a single screen at many locations) and
by the film looking to get lost within the crowd of this month's higher profile releases (Venom: Let There Be Carnage, No Time To Die, Halloween Kills and next weekend's Dune). One of the better recent
comparisons for The Last Duel could be The Green Knight, which debuted with $6.79 million from a fairly similar 2,790 locations back in July. BoxOfficeReport is predicting a fourth place start of $7.5 million for
The Last Duel this weekend (for a per-location average of $2,447). |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, United Artists Releasing and MGM's The Addams Family 2 and Disney's Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings are both likely to hold up very nicely.
Last weekend, The Addams Family 2 declined 41.6 percent to land in third with $10.11 million, while Shang-Chi was down just 29.5 percent to place in fourth with $4.31 million. Don't be surprised to see both films hold up
even better this weekend than they did last weekend. The Addams Family 2 could decline 32 percent to take fifth with $6.9 million, while Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings could decrease a slim 26 percent to claim
sixth with $3.2 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 7 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Halloween Kills (Universal) |
$41.0 M | $41.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | No Time To Die (United Artists Releasing / MGM) |
$24.5 M | $100.0 M | -56% | 2 |
| 3 | Venom: Let There Be Carnage (Sony / Columbia) |
$15.3 M | $168.9 M | -52% | 3 |
| 4 | The Last Duel (Disney / 20th Century) |
$7.5 M | $7.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 5 | The Addams Family 2 (United Artists Releasing / MGM) |
$6.9 M | $41.9 M | -32% | 3 |
| 6 | Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Disney) |
$3.2 M | $217.7 M | -26% | 7 |
| 7 | Free Guy (Disney / 20th Century) |
$0.7 M | $120.8 M | -44% | 10 |
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