Weekend Box Office Predictions
September 17 - September 19, 2021
Published on September 16, 2021 at 5:00PM Pacific |
| Disney's Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings will look to comfortably lead the domestic box office for a third consecutive frame this weekend. Last weekend Shang-Chi declined a respectable
54 percent to gross $34.70 million, which easily represented the largest second weekend gross since the re-opening of domestic theatres. This weekend Shang-Chi shouldn't have a problem registering the largest third weekend gross
since re-opening, a mark that is currently held by Free Guy with $13.16 million. Shang-Chi has seen its midweek grosses start to stabilize this week, though it should be noted that the film and the marketplace in general
received a bit of a boost on Wednesday from the Yom Kippur holiday. Also of note this weekend is that Shang-Chi will be losing a portion of its IMAX showtimes to Lionsgate's IMAX re-issue of 1995's Ghost in the Shell. In
addition to benefiting from its continued strong word of mouth, Shang-Chi will also benefit this weekend from not much being expected from either of this weekend's two new wide releases. BoxOfficeReport is expecting
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings to decline a solid 44 percent this weekend to claim first place with $19.5 million. By the end of this weekend Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings should already be the
second highest grossing film domestically since re-opening (behind only Black Widow). |
| After releasing Malignant last weekend, this weekend Warner Bros. is releasing Cry Macho. The neo-Western directed by and starring Clint Eastwood will open day-and-date on Friday, theatrically and
via streaming on HBO Max. As was the case with Malignant last weekend, Cry Macho isn't having Thursday preview shows this weekend. More and more Warner's decision to open films day-and-date on HBO Max looks to be having
a negative impact at the theatrical box office as soon as opening weekend (i.e. Reminiscence and Malignant). While Eastwood has long been dependable at the box office, both as a director and especially as an actor, there
doesn't seem to be much excitement about Cry Macho to begin with and the film's mixed critical reviews will make it even more likely that audiences will opt to see the film on HBO Max as opposed to catching it in theatres.
Cry Macho could debut in a distant second place this weekend with $5.5 million, which would be nearly on par with last weekend's $5.43 million start of Malignant. |
| Disney and 20th Century's Free Guy will look to continue to display strong holding power this weekend. Last weekend Free Guy declined a solid 37 percent to move back into second place with
$5.58 million. With Free Guy having strong location and showtime holds this weekend and not much being expected of this weekend's new releases, it's quite possible that Free Guy will have its best percentage hold yet this
weekend. Look for Free Guy to decrease only 23 percent this weekend to place in third with $4.3 million. |
| The weekend's other new wide release is Open Road and Briarcliff's Copshop. The Joe Carnahan directed action-thriller stars Gerard Butler and Frank Grillo. Copshop is opening exclusively in
theatres this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. While Butler has a knack for starring in the films that exceed expectations at the box office, it doesn't appear that will be happing with Copshop.
Critical reviews for Copshop have been stronger than those of Cry Macho, but there still looks to be even less opening weekend interest for Copshop than there is for Cry Macho. Back in October of 2020
Open Road and Briarcliff's Honest Thief debuted with $3.61 million, while a few months later in January of this year Open Road and Briarcliff's The Marksman grossed $3.10 million during its first three days of release.
Copshop could find itself opening in the same neighborhood as Open Road and Briarcliff's pair of Liam Neeson-led films. BoxOfficeReport is predicting a modest fourth place start of $3.3 million for CopShop. |
| Horror films Candyman and Malignant could find themselves in a close race for fifth place this weekend. Last weekend Warner and New Line's Malignant debuted in third with just $5.43 million,
while Universal and MGM's Candyman was down a sizable 54 percent to claim fourth with $4.76 million. This weekend Candyman could have the slight edge between the two films, though Malignant may be in store for a
solid second weekend hold for a horror film thanks in part to the relatively high level of buzz the film has generated for a film with grosses of this size. Look for Candyman to decline 43 percent to gross $2.7 million and for
Malignant to decrease 52 percent to take in $2.6 million. |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, Disney's Jungle Cruise could decrease just 31 percent to take in $1.6 million, while Paramount's more front-loaded PAW Patrol: The Movie could decline
43 percent to gross $1.3 million. |
| Opening in moderate release this weekend are Focus' Blue Bayou and Disney and Searchlight's The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Blue Bayou was directed by and stars Justin Chon and also stars
Alicia Vikander. The Eyes of Tammy Faye was directed by Michael Showalter and stars Jessica Chastain and Andrew Garfield. Both films will have Thursday preview shows, with those for The Eyes of Tammy Faye beginning at 6PM and
those for Blue Bayou beginning at 7PM. On the average, critical reviews have been a bit stronger for Blue Bayou than they have been for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Blue Bayou will also have a slight location
count edge this weekend (477 locations, in comparison to 450 locations for The Eyes of Tammy Faye), though The Eyes of Tammy Faye looks to be getting the slightly higher showtimes per location average of the two films.
Last weekend Focus' The Card Counter debuted with $1.04 million from 580 locations. While Blue Bayou and The Eyes of Tammy Faye aren't opening in quite as many locations that The Card Counter did
(and have both had weaker critical reviews than The Card Counter), both films could perform a bit better on a per-location average than The Card Counter did last weekend to make up for it. Blue Bayou could start out
with $1.15 million this weekend, while The Eyes of Tammy Faye could debut with a similar $1.10 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 10 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Disney) |
$19.5 M | $174.8 M | -44% | 3 |
| 2 | Cry Macho (Warner Bros.) |
$5.5 M | $5.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | Free Guy (Disney / 20th Century) |
$4.3 M | $107.7 M | -23% | 6 |
| 4 | Copshop (Open Road / Briarcliff) |
$3.3 M | $3.3 M | NEW | 1 |
| 5 | Candyman (Universal / MGM) |
$2.7 M | $52.4 M | -43% | 4 |
| 6 | Malignant (Warner / New Line) |
$2.6 M | $9.8 M | -52% | 2 |
| 7 | Jungle Cruise (Disney) |
$1.6 M | $112.1 M | -31% | 8 |
| 8 | PAW Patrol: The Movie (Paramount) |
$1.3 M | $36.7 M | -43% | 5 |
| 9 | Blue Bayou (Focus) |
$1.15 M | $1.15 M | NEW | 1 |
| 10 | The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Disney / Searchlight) |
$1.10 M | $1.10 M | NEW | 1 |
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