Weekend Box Office Predictions
September 10 - September 12, 2021
Published on September 9, 2021 at 5:15PM Pacific |
| After demolishing the Labor Day weekend box office record last weekend with respective three-day and four-day openings of $75.39 million and $94.67 million, Disney's Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings is
set to easily remain in first place this weekend. Shang-Chi registered the second largest three-day opening since the re-opening of domestic theatres (behind only Black Widow) and it looks like the film will have no
problem zooming past the $25.85 million second weekend take of Black Widow to register the largest second weekend gross of any film since re-opening (just over a year ago). Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings will
be helped out this weekend by its strong critical reviews, very strong word of mouth (the film received an A rating on CinemaScore), by holding onto a sizable amount of its showtimes from last weekend (as well as IMAX screens) and from
continuing to play exclusively in theatres. The only areas of relative concern for Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings this weekend are that as an MCU film there will be at least a bit of initial post-opening weekend
front-loading to deal with this weekend and that the film's post-Monday midweek grosses haven't been out of this world for a fall release that opened as large as it did (again, relatively speaking, and the film already held up extremely well from Saturday through Monday).
But it may also very well be that Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings will prove to be more weekend heavy than previous fall comic book blockbusters have been (such as 2018's Venom and 2019's Joker).
Percentage wise, one of the better pre-pandemic second weekend comparisons for Shang-Chi may be 2018's Black Panther, which declined just 45 percent in its second weekend (which as with Shang-Chi, also followed a four-day holiday weekend).
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings may not quite match the second weekend percentage hold of Black Panther, but it could come close. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings could take in $39.5 million this
weekend, which would represent a very respectable 48 percent decline from last weekend's three-day break-out start. |
| This weekend's widest new release is Warner and New Line's Malignant. The R-rated horror film was directed by James Wan and stars Annabelle Wallis. Malignant isn't having Thursday preview shows this
weekend and is opening day-and-date via streaming on HBO Max. As of publishing late Thursday afternoon, reviews for Malignant still haven't started to appear, which typically isn't a good box office sign. While Wan has a strong
box office history, especially as a director, there just doesn't seem to be much excitement for Malignant to begin with. And whatever box office potential the film may have once had has no doubt been limited by the break-out
success of Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings and to a lesser extent by the solid performance of fellow horror film Candyman. Malignant also feels like the type of day-and-date release that may be hurt more
on opening weekend than most other films that have opened day-and-date. The film's international start last weekend wasn't promising either, as Malignant grossed just $2.2 million from 24 markets. Look for Malignant to
debut in a distant second place this weekend with $7.0 million, which would represent one of this year's lower openings for a horror film launching in wide release. |
| Last weekend Universal and MGM's Candyman and Disney and 20th Century's Free Guy finished fairly close to one another with respective four-day grosses of $12.51 million and $11.24 million. The two
films will likely remain close to one another this weekend, though Free Guy is likely to inch ahead of Candyman in this weekend's rankings, especially with Candyman facing at least some new direct competition from
Malignant and Free Guy looking to recover a bit this week after losing its IMAX screens to Shang-Chi last weekend. A 35 percent decline from last weekend's three-day performance would transfer into a $5.8 million
third place take for Free Guy (which would take the film beyond the $100 million domestic mark), while a 47 percent decrease would give Candyman a fourth place gross of $5.5 million for the frame. |
| Sony and AFFIRM's Show Me the Father is receiving a semi-wide release this weekend in 1,073 locations. The faith-based documentary about fatherhood was directed by Rick Altizer and the Kendrick Brothers are
featured in the film and were also executive producers. Show Me the Father will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. The Kendrick Brothers have a solid box office history (especially when it comes to per-location averages), but as a
documentary Show Me the Father does represent a departure from their usual fare. With that in mind, Show Me the Father is highly unlikely to reach the box office heights of previous films from the Kendrick Brothers, but
the film could still attract a portion of the Kendrick Brothers' fans this weekend (and potentially hold up well in the weeks ahead). A fifth place debut of $2.8 million for Show Me the Father this weekend would give the film a
solid per-location average of $2,610 for the frame. |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, Disney's Jungle Cruise could decline just 33 percent from last weekend's three-day performance to take in $2.7 million, Paramount's
PAW Patrol: The Movie could decrease 43 percent to gross $2.3 million and Sony's Don't Breathe 2 could also decline 43 percent to register $1.3 million. |
| Focus' The Card Counter is receiving a moderate release this weekend in 580 locations. The Paul Schrader directed film stars Oscar Isaac, Tiffany Haddish, Tye Sheridan, and Willem Dafoe.
The Card Counter will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 7PM. Critical reviews for The Card Counter have been quite strong, which could help the film have a respectable per-location average this weekend, though
obviously the film's location count will limit overall potential, especially in the current environment for specialty fare. The Card Counter could debut in ninth place this weekend with $1.15 million
(for a per-location average of $1,983 for the frame). |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Disney) |
$39.5 M | $149.8 M | -48% | 2 |
| 2 | Malignant (Warner / New Line) |
$7.0 M | $7.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | Free Guy (Disney / 20th Century) |
$5.8 M | $101.8 M | -35% | 5 |
| 4 | Candyman (Universal / MGM) |
$5.5 M | $48.7 M | -47% | 3 |
| 5 | Show Me the Father (Sony / AFFIRM) |
$2.8 M | $2.8 M | NEW | 1 |
| 6 | Jungle Cruise (Disney) |
$2.7 M | $110.1 M | -33% | 7 |
| 7 | PAW Patrol: The Movie (Paramount) |
$2.3 M | $34.7 M | -43% | 4 |
| 8 | Don't Breathe 2 (Sony / Screen Gems) |
$1.3 M | $30.2 M | -43% | 5 |
| 9 | The Card Counter (Focus) |
$1.15 M | $1.15 M | NEW | 1 |
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