Weekend Box Office Predictions
August 13 - August 15, 2021
Published on August 12, 2021 at 4:45PM Pacific |
| This weekend will see three new films going into wide release, with Disney's release of 20th Century's Free Guy looking to be the most promising of the three at the box office. The Shawn Levy directed
sci-fi comedy stars Ryan Reynolds and Jodie Comer. Critical reviews for Free Guy have been very strong, which is quite rare for a video game related film, though Free Guy also isn't a direct adaptation of a pre-existing video
game. Free Guy is opening in 4,165 locations this weekend, will have the highest showtimes per location average of any film this weekend, will be sharing IMAX screens with Warner's The Suicide Squad and will have Thursday
preview shows beginning at 6PM. And unlike the recent Jungle Cruise and The Suicide Squad, Free Guy isn't opening day-and-date this weekend, which should help increase the film's opening weekend potential. For an
original film, excitement is relatively high for Free Guy, though at the same time the film understandably doesn't look to be as anticipated as some of this summer's higher-profile sequels and could also have inflated online buzz
as a result of the film's video game theme and the involvement of Reynolds (recall 2019's Pokémon Detective Pikachu). The marketplace as a whole will also have to deal with the continued rising of COVID-19 cases due to the Delta
variant, a factor which could have an even bigger impact on this weekend's box office than it has the past few weeks. Back in June, the R-rated Ryan Reynolds-led Hitman's Bodyguard's Wife grossed $16.75 million after its first
five days of release (that film opened on a Wednesday). With stronger pre-release buzz, far better critical reviews and a friendlier PG-13 rating, it's likely that the three-day opening of Free Guy will outpace the five-day start of
Hitman's Bodyguard's Wife and could instead be much closer to the $21.38 million pre-pandemic three-day launch of The Hitman's Bodyguard back in August of 2017. BoxOfficeReport expects Free Guy to debut comfortably
in first place this weekend with $21.0 million (for a per-location average of $5,042). |
| Sony will release Screen Gems' Don't Breathe 2 in 3,005 locations this weekend. The action-horror follow-up to 2016's Don't Breathe sees the return of Stephen Lang's The Blind Man character.
Don't Breathe 2 was directed by Rodo Sayagues, with Don't Breathe director Fede Álvarez serving as a co-writer and producer for Don't Breathe 2. As of publishing, only a handful of critical reviews are in for
Don't Breathe 2, but from those initial reviews, it doesn't look like Don't Breathe 2 will be going over anywhere near as well with critics as its predecessor did. Thursday preview shows for Don't Breathe 2 will
begin at 7PM and the film should get at least a small additional boost on Friday from this Friday being Friday the 13th. Perhaps the biggest hurdle for Don't Breathe 2 this weekend is that the film will have to deal with
indirect competition from all four of this weekend's other top five films. Don't Breathe 2 isn't expected to open anywhere near the pre-pandemic $26.41 million start of Don't Breathe and should instead open much more
along the lines of recent horror sequels The Forever Purge and Escape Room: Tournament of Champions, which respectively debuted with $12.55 million and $8.80 million. Look for Don't Breathe 2 to arrive in second
place this weekend with $11.0 million (for a per-location average of $3,661). |
| Also arriving in theaters this weekend is United Artists Releasing's release of MGM's Respect. The Liesl Tommy directed Aretha Franklin biopic stars Jennifer Hudson as Franklin and also features Forest Whitaker
and Marlon Wayans. While Hudson's performance has been much buzzed about, critical reviews for the film itself have been mixed, more so positive than negative. In addition to the film's mixed critical reviews, the consensus feeling
seems to be that the state of the current theatrical environment as a result of the pandemic will have the biggest negative impact on the potential of Respect out of this weekend's three new wide releases. However, it's also
quite possible that Respect could have the best holding power of this weekend's three new openers beyond opening weekend, especially if the film goes over better with audiences than it has with critics. Respect will be
opening in 3,207 locations this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 4PM at select locations and at 7PM in other locations. BoxOfficeReport is predicting a $9.5 million third place start for Respect this weekend (for a per-location average of $2,962). |
| After opening below expectations last weekend with a first place start of $26.21 million, Warner's The Suicide Squad is extremely likely to experience a very sharp second weekend decline this weekend. While
critical reviews for The Suicide Squad have been terrific and word of mouth has been good, high-profile sequels have been experiencing very sharp second weekend percentage declines throughout the summer, as have most day-and-date releases. That
combination should be too much for The Suicide Squad to overcome this weekend, especially for a fan-driven film that will be front-loaded to begin with, and it also won't help that the film will be losing a significant amount of
showtimes per location this weekend (as well as losing some of its IMAX screens and shows to Free Guy). The bigger question for The Suicide Squad will be whether or not the film is able to stabilize beginning next week
thanks to its critical reviews and word of mouth. As for this weekend, The Suicide Squad could fall 66 percent to land in fourth place with $8.8 million. |
| Last weekend saw Disney's Jungle Cruise experience one of this summer's better second weekend holds for a high-profile release, as the film declined a very reasonable 55 percent to take second with
$15.82 million. With its second weekend decline now behind it, Jungle Cruise should continue to stabilize further this weekend. However, the degree of that further stabilization this weekend will be limited in part by the film
playing in nearly 10 percent fewer locations than it did last weekend (3,900 locations this weekend in comparison to 4,310 locations last weekend) and much like The Suicide Squad, from taking a significant average showtimes
per-location hit this weekend. With that in mind, Jungle Cruise could decline a respectable 45 percent this weekend to place in fifth with $8.7 million, before likely holding up significantly better going forward beyond this weekend. |
| Each of the past two weekends Universal's Old has managed to stay just ahead of Disney's Black Widow in the weekend rankings and it looks like that will be the case once again this weekend thanks in
part to Black Widow taking a significantly larger location count hit this weekend than Old. Look for Old to decline 44 percent to claim sixth place this weekend with $2.3 million and for Black Widow to fall
49 percent to follow in seventh with $2.0 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 8 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Free Guy (Disney / 20th Century) |
$21.0 M | $21.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Don't Breathe 2 (Sony / Screen Gems) |
$11.0 M | $11.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | Respect (United Artists Releasing / MGM) |
$9.5 M | $9.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | The Suicide Squad (Warner Bros.) |
$8.8 M | $44.6 M | -66% | 2 |
| 5 | Jungle Cruise (Disney) |
$8.7 M | $81.9 M | -45% | 3 |
| 6 | Old (Universal) |
$2.3 M | $42.9 M | -44% | 4 |
| 7 | Black Widow (Disney) |
$2.0 M | $178.2 M | -49% | 6 |
| 8 | Stillwater (Focus) |
$1.5 M | $12.8 M | -47% | 3 |
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