Weekend Box Office Predictions
November 20 - November 22, 2020
Published on November 19, 2020 at 3:45PM Pacific |
| After debuting in first place last weekend with $3.60 million, Universal's Freaky will look to remain in first place at the box office this weekend. The R-rated horror comedy from Blumhouse should be helped
out this weekend by its strong critical reviews and solid word of mouth (Freaky received a B- rating on CinemaScore). Freaky will also benefit this weekend from continuing to have the most showtimes of any current film at
many theatres. At the same time, as a horror comedy Freaky is likely to have some natural front-loading, especially given that the film opened on Friday the 13th last weekend. The marketplace as a whole will also take a hit this
weekend from certain areas of the United States re-closing movie theatres due to reimplemented COVID-19 restrictions (including Michigan, areas of California and Chicago). Due to theatre re-closings, Freaky will be playing in
2,057 locations this weekend (which is 415 fewer locations than last weekend). Freaky could experience a 53 percent decline this weekend to take in $1.7 million. |
| After claiming third place each of the past three weekends, 101 Studios' The War with Grandpa could move into second place this weekend. Last weekend The War with Grandpa decreased just 12 percent to
take in $1.32 million. The Robert De Niro-led family comedy isn't likely to hold up quite that well this weekend, due in part to the mentioned theatre closings in areas of the United States
(The War with Grandpa will be playing in 1,688 locations this weekend – 457 fewer than last weekend) and in part from facing new direct competition from Disney's re-issue of The Santa Clause. However,
The War with Grandpa is still likely to have the weekend's best percentage hold among wide releases. The War with Grandpa could decrease 26 percent this weekend to take in $0.98 million. |
| Jackie Chan will return to theatres this weekend with the release of Gravitas Ventures' Vanguard. The Stanley Tong directed action film represents the first wide release for Jackie Chan domestically since
the release of The Foreigner back in October of 2017. Vanguard will be playing in 1,376 locations this weekend, which makes the film the widest theatrical release ever for distributor Gravitas Ventures. With regard to
this weekend's three major new releases, it appears that Vanguard will be receiving a higher showtimes per location average than either The Last Vermeer or The Santa Clause. Vanguard will look to appeal to the
same action fans that have caught Unhinged and Honest Thief in theatres over the past few months. Back in September Gravitas Ventures' Shortcut debuted with $0.279 million from 725 locations (for a per-location average of $385);
a performance that Vanguard should be able to outpace this weekend. With a debut of $0.95 million (for a per-location average of $690), Vanguard could find itself in a close race for second place this weekend with
The War with Grandpa. |
| Coming off of a second place performance last weekend, Focus' Let Him Go could fall to fourth place this weekend. Following a stronger than expected start the previous weekend, Let Him Go fell a
surprisingly sharp 56 percent to take in $1.75 million last weekend. It doesn't look like Let Him Go will be stabilizing much this weekend, especially with the film playing in 551 fewer locations than last weekend
(for a total of 1,907 locations this weekend). A sizable 50 percent decline would give Let Him Go $0.88 million this weekend. |
| Disney continues its string of weekly re-issues this weekend with the re-release of 1994's The Santa Clause. Last month Disney had success in re-releasing 1993's Hocus Pocus and
The Nightmare Before Christmas in the lead-up to Halloween and this weekend the distributor will look to have success with The Santa Clause in the lead-up to Thanksgiving and Christmas. Potential for
The Santa Clause will be limited somewhat by the film screening in 1,581 locations this weekend, but thanks in part to its holiday timing; The Santa Clause could still outpace the $0.51 million Disney's re-issue of
Toy Story grossed two weeks ago. A per-location average of just over $410 would give The Santa Clause a fifth place take of $0.65 million. |
| This weekend's third major new release is Sony's The Last Vermeer. Critical reviews for the Dan Friedkin directed drama starring Guy Pearce have tended to be good. As of publishing, this weekend's
location count for The Last Vermeer isn't available, but the film looks to be playing in semi-wide release this weekend. Back in September Sony's The Last Shift started out with $0.246 million from 871 locations
(for a per-location average of $282). In comparison, there seems to be a bit more awareness for The Last Vermeer than there was for The Last Shift. With that in mind, The Last Vermeer could start out in the area of
$0.40 million this weekend. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Freaky (Universal) |
$1.70 M | $6.1 M | -53% | 2 |
| 2 | The War with Grandpa (101 Studios) |
$0.98 M | $16.4 M | -26% | 7 |
| 3 | Vanguard (Gravitas Ventures) |
$0.95 M | $0.95 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Let Him Go (Focus) |
$0.88 M | $8.1 M | -50% | 3 |
| 5 | The Santa Clause (re-issue) (Disney) |
$0.65 M | $0.65 M | NEW | 1 |
| 6 | Come Play (Focus) |
$0.55 M | $8.0 M | -49% | 4 |
| 7 | Tenet (Warner Bros.) |
$0.52 M | $57.0 M | -29% | 13 |
| 8 | Honest Thief (Open Road / Briarcliff) |
$0.50 M | $13.0 M | -36% | 7 |
| 9 | The Last Vermeer (Sony / TriStar) |
$0.40 M | $0.40 M | NEW | 1 |
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