Weekend Box Office Predictions
November 13 - November 15, 2020
Published on November 12, 2020 at 3:30PM Pacific |
| This weekend Universal's Freaky is set to debut in first place at the domestic box office. The horror comedy from Blumhouse was directed by Christopher Landon (director of the Happy Death Day films) and
stars Vince Vaughn and Kathryn Newton. Audience reaction to the film's trailer has been very positive, while critical reviews for Freaky have been very strong. Freaky will also get an added boost this weekend from opening on
Friday the 13th. Freaky will be playing in 2,472 locations this weekend and will also have Thursday night previews beginning at 7PM. |
| With regard to films that have opened since theatres re-opened back in August, the best opening weekend comparison to Freaky may be The New Mutants, which debuted with $7.04 million from
2,412 locations (for a per-location average of $2,918). Pre-release anticipation for Freaky appears to be higher than it was for The New Mutants, but at the same time Freaky also won't be getting as many showtimes
per location that The New Mutants received during its opening weekend and also won't benefit from an IMAX boost (though Freaky will be playing on non-IMAX PLF screens). Freaky being rated R could also limit its
potential slightly (The New Mutants was rated PG-13, as were both Happy Death Day films). A promising debut of $6.8 million for Freaky this weekend would give the film a very solid per-location average just over
$2,750 for the frame (and would also likely give the film the highest opening weekend per-showtime average of any wide release since the re-opening of theatres). Given the film's strong critical reviews, beyond this weekend Freaky
will also have a strong chance of holding up better than usual for a horror film. |
| On the heels of its very respectable $4.00 million first place start last weekend, Focus' Let Him Go will look to claim second place this weekend. Critical reviews for the Thomas Bezucha directed thriller
starring Diane Lane and Kevin Costner have been good and Let Him Go also looks to be going over fairly well with audiences after receiving a B- rating on CinemaScore. In addition to benefiting from the overall positive reaction
to the film, holding power for Let Him Go could also be helped out a bit from the film skewing towards older moviegoers. A 33 percent decline from last weekend would transfer into a second weekend take of $2.7 million for Let Him Go. |
| 101 Studios' The War with Grandpa will likely claim third place for a third consecutive frame. The War with Grandpa had a very healthy 19 percent increase this past weekend and has continued to hold up
well throughout the midweek. Thanks to last weekend's hold, The War with Grandpa will only be losing 203 locations this weekend (for a total of 2,145 locations) and looks to be holding over its showtimes per location very well. A
$1.3 million take for The War with Grandpa this weekend would represent a slim 14 percent decline. |
| Focus' Come Play will take a direct hit from new direct competition from Freaky, though that hit could be muted a bit from Come Play also benefiting from Friday the 13th and from
Come Play being a PG-13 alternative to the R-rated Freaky. Come Play declined a solid 43 percent last weekend and a similar 44 percent decline this weekend would give the film a fourth place take of $1.0 million. |
| Open Road and Briarcliff's Honest Thief and Warner's Tenet both held up very well last weekend (with respective percentage declines of 17 percent and 2 percent) and should continue to hold up well
once again this weekend. A 26 percent decrease would give Honest Thief $0.85 million this weekend, while a 12 percent decline for Tenet would be good for a similar $0.80 million. |
| Disney will continue its string of recent re-issues by re-issuing 2014's Guardians of the Galaxy this weekend. Last weekend Disney's re-issue of Toy Story took in an estimated $0.51 million and odds are
that Guardians of the Galaxy will come in below that figure, especially since Guardians of the Galaxy is being released in fewer locations (1,560 in comparison to 2,102 for Toy Story last weekend). A per-location
average of just under $225 would give Guardians of the Galaxy $0.35 million this weekend. |
| Non-wide releases that are arriving in theatres this weekend include GKIDS' Wolfwalkers (in an estimated 500 locations, in partnership with Fathom Events), Relativity Media UV's Come Away (475 locations),
NEON's Ammonite (280 locations) and Sony Pictures Classics' The Climb. BoxOfficeReport isn't making official opening weekend predictions for any of the four new releases in question. |
|
|
Predictions for this weekend's top 7 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Freaky (Universal) |
$6.80 M | $6.8 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Let Him Go (Focus) |
$2.70 M | $7.8 M | -33% | 2 |
| 3 | The War with Grandpa (101 Studios) |
$1.30 M | $15.2 M | -14% | 6 |
| 4 | Come Play (Focus) |
$1.00 M | $7.2 M | -44% | 3 |
| 5 | Honest Thief (Open Road / Briarcliff) |
$0.85 M | $12.4 M | -26% | 6 |
| 6 | Tenet (Warner Bros.) |
$0.80 M | $56.2 M | -12% | 12 |
| 7 | Guardians of the Galaxy (re-issue) (Disney) |
$0.35 M | $0.35 M | NEW | 1 |
|
|
Follow BoxOfficeReport on Twitter |
Find BoxOfficeReport on Facebook |