Weekend Box Office Predictions
October 30 - November 1, 2020
Published on October 29, 2020 at 2:30PM Pacific |
| This weekend Focus' Come Play will look to attract enough moviegoers in the mood for a Halloween option to take first place at the domestic box office. The Jacob Chase directed horror film from Amblin Partners
should be helped out this weekend by both its PG-13 rating and by its better than expected critical reviews thus far. The film will also have Thursday night previews beginning at 7PM. Come Play will be playing in
2,183 locations this weekend and will be getting more showtimes per location than fellow horror film The Empty Man got at most theatres last weekend. Relativity speaking, the R-rated The Empty Man was a minor surprise
last weekend, as the segment of moviegoers who are currently comfortable going to theatres have no doubt been yearning in recent weeks for films that serve as Halloween choices. Given that Come Play has a number of advantages in
comparison with The Empty Man (including more awareness from at least some advertising), being able to double last weekend's performance of The Empty Man feels reasonable. A per-location average of just under $1,240 would give
Come Play a respectable debut of $2.7 million this weekend. |
| After leading the box office for the past two frames, Open Road and Briarcliff's Honest Thief is the favorite to take second place this weekend. The Liam Neeson-led action thriller declined just 35 percent
this past weekend and has been holding up well throughout the midweek, as the film's Wednesday take was down 30 percent from last Wednesday. Honest Thief should be helped out this weekend by continued good word of mouth and by
not losing that many showtimes per location in comparison to last weekend. In general, the marketplace as a whole will also receive a small boost this weekend from more theatres re-opening in parts of the California Bay Area
(including in the cities of San Francisco and San Jose). A 34 percent decline from last weekend would transfer into $1.55 million for Honest Thief this weekend. |
| Also looking to continue to hold up well this weekend is 101 Studios' The War with Grandpa. The Robert De Niro-led family comedy was down only 24 percent last weekend and on Wednesday was down a slim
18 percent from the previous Wednesday. In previous years, non-Halloween themed family films have tended to take a hit when Halloween falls over the weekend, but that may not be the case this year given that we are in a different
environment due to the Covid-19 pandemic. While The War with Grandpa won't be facing any new direct competition this weekend, the film could see a bit of new indirect competition from Come Play. Another 24 percent decline
this weekend would give The War with Grandpa $1.45 million for the frame and put the film within shouting distance of Honest Thief for second place. |
| In what will be the film's ninth weekend of wide release, Warner's Tenet should claim fourth place. Thanks in part to the boost the Christopher Nolan directed film received from non-New York City theatres
opening throughout New York State last weekend, Tenet was down a very slim 15 percent to gross an estimated $1.3 million. While Tenet will get a bit of a boost this weekend from theatres re-opening in San Francisco and
San Jose, that may not be quite enough to match the boost the film received last weekend, especially with it looking like Tenet will be losing more showtimes per location in general this weekend than it did last weekend. With that
said, Tenet should still hold up nicely this weekend, as a 23 percent decrease would give the film $1.0 million. |
| After a stronger than expected, but still modest, third place start of $1.31 million last weekend, Disney and 20th Century's The Empty Man should round out this weekend's top five. While
The Empty Man received a poor D+ rating on CinemaScore, the film has been displaying solid first-week daily holds for a horror film (likely due at least in part to the initial low awareness of the film). And even with the new
direct competition from Come Play, The Empty Man will receive a bit of a boost this weekend from Halloween falling on Saturday. The film may not hold up very well after this weekend, but this weekend
The Empty Man could fall a solid 43 percent to take in $0.75 million. |
| Places sixth through eighth could all be claimed by Disney re-issues this weekend. Hocus Pocus and The Nightmare Before Christmas should both hold up well over Halloween weekend, especially since
both films will be holding onto a high percentage of their respective locations and showtimes. A slim 15 percent decline would give Hocus Pocus a sixth place take of $0.45 million, while a 31 percent decrease would place
The Nightmare Before Christmas just behind in seventh with $0.40 million. |
| Disney's re-issue of 20th Century's Alita: Battle Angel this weekend represents the sixth re-issue from Disney over the past six weeks. Given that the re-issue is coming just a little over a year and a half
after the film's initial release and that with a location count of 1,060 Alita: Battle Angel is receiving the smallest launch of Disney's recent re-issues, Alita: Battle Angel is likely to deliver the smallest opening
among Disney's recent re-issues (a mark currently held by last weekend's $0.49 million take of Monsters, Inc.). A per-location average of just under $360 would give the re-issue of Alita: Battle Angel an eighth place start
of $0.38 million this weekend. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 8 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Come Play (Focus) |
$2.70 M | $2.7 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Honest Thief (Open Road / Briarcliff) |
$1.55 M | $9.7 M | -34% | 4 |
| 3 | The War with Grandpa (101 Studios) |
$1.45 M | $11.7 M | -24% | 4 |
| 4 | Tenet (Warner Bros.) |
$1.00 M | $54.0 M | -23% | 10 |
| 5 | The Empty Man (Disney / 20th Century) |
$0.75 M | $2.5 M | -43% | 2 |
| 6 | Hocus Pocus (re-issue) (Disney) |
$0.45 M | $6.1 M | -15% | 5 |
| 7 | The Nightmare Before Christmas (re-issue) (Disney) |
$0.40 M | $2.8 M | -31% | 3 |
| 8 | Alita: Battle Angel (re-issue) (Disney / 20th Century) |
$0.38 M | $0.38 M | NEW | 1 |
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