Weekend Box Office Predictions
October 23 - October 25, 2020
Published on October 22, 2020 at 3:30PM Pacific |
| After taking first place last weekend, Open Road and Briarcliff's Honest Thief will attempt to make it two weekends in a row at the top of the domestic box office. The Liam Neeson-led action thriller took
in $3.61 million in its first weekend of release and an additional $0.51 million the previous week in Canada-only release (for a total of $4.12 million through this past Sunday). At most locations, Honest Thief will continue to
receive the most showtimes of any film this weekend. The theatrical marketplace as a whole will also receive an added boost this weekend from New York State theatres (not including New York City) re-opening. Back in August
Unhinged declined 35 percent in its second weekend of wide release, though the situation was a bit different as that film added a significant 508 locations that weekend while also facing new competition from
The New Mutants (this weekend's new releases and re-issues aren't expected to provide much competition for Honest Thief). A solid second weekend decline of 40 percent would give Honest Thief $2.15 million for the
frame, which should be enough to keep the film in first place. |
| Theatres re-opening throughout parts of New York State could prove to be especially beneficial to Warner's Tenet this weekend. Based on updated global estimates, Tenet took in an estimated
$1.7 million last weekend. That was a decline of just 20 percent from the previous frame; thanks in part to the Seattle DMA re-opening this past weekend. With the aid of theatre re-openings in New York State
(especially with Tenet receiving the most showtimes of any film at many New York State theatres this weekend) and Tenet looking like it will hold onto its showtimes (outside of New York) at a better rate this weekend than
it did last weekend, Tenet should have an excellent percentage hold this weekend and may even increase over last weekend's performance. Tenet could be headed for $1.8 million this weekend, which would represent a 6 percent
increase and likely move the film back into second place. |
| 101 Studios' The War with Grandpa should find itself in a close race with Tenet for second place this weekend. The War with Grandpa declined a very solid 31 percent last weekend and could
experience a similar percentage hold this weekend. With a location count of 2,345 this weekend, The War with Grandpa will be playing in 85 more locations this weekend than last weekend, though it also looks like the
Robert De Niro-led family comedy will see a noteworthy dip in its screenings per location at many theatres this weekend. A 32 percent decrease from last weekend would give The War with Grandpa a third place take of $1.7 million
this weekend. |
| This weekend's widest new release is Disney and 20th Century's The Empty Man. The R-rated horror film will be playing in 2,027 locations this weekend. The Empty Man had been scheduled to be
released on December 4, but was bumped up to an October release date roughly a month ago. As part of the film being bumped up fairly last minute, The Empty Man hasn't really had an advertising campaign, especially by wide release
standards (the film's official online trailer was released less than a week ago). The Empty Man will look to benefit from moviegoers in the mood for a horror film as Halloween approaches and looks to be getting a full screen at
most theatres this weekend, but it's still going to be very tough for the film to overcome its lack of advertising. A per-location average in the area of $420 would transfer into a debut of $0.85 million for The Empty Man. |
| Open Road will be releasing After We Collided day-and-date this weekend in the United States. After We Collided has had a strong international run and has already been a solid performer in Canada,
but due to the film's PVOD release this weekend, major theatre chains will not be screening the film (similar to the recent Bill & Ted Face the Music). Had After We Collided opted for a traditional wide release this
weekend, the film would have had a very good chance of taking first place this weekend. After We Collided could still end up with this weekend's highest per-location average among major releases and while the film's location
count isn't available as of publishing, After We Collided could take in $0.75 million this weekend from a moderate / semi-wide United States launch. |
| Places sixth through eighth could all be claimed by Disney re-issues this weekend. This weekend Disney is re-issuing 2001's Monsters, Inc. (which was previously re-issued back in 2012); representing the
distributor's fifth re-issue over the past five weeks. While Monsters, Inc. will be playing in 1,875 locations this weekend, it looks like the film will be having slightly fewer screenings per location this weekend than Disney's
other recent re-issues have had in their respective first weekends (which were already relatively low to begin with). With that in mind, Monsters, Inc. is likely to open closer to the $0.60 million re-issue launch of Coco than the
respective $1.93 million and $1.32 million re-issue launches of Hocus Pocus and The Nightmare Before Christmas, with a weekend take in the area of $0.70 million (for a per-location average of roughly $375). And as for
The Nightmare Before Christmas and Hocus Pocus this weekend, The Nightmare Before Christmas could decline 45 percent to finish just ahead of Monsters, Inc. with $0.73 million for the frame (from 1,614 locations), while
Hocus Pocus could continue to hold up well by decreasing 34 percent to take in $0.50 million (from 1,277 locations). |
| Also receiving a re-issue this weekend is United Artists Releasing and MGM's The Addams Family. The computer animated film, which was a strong performer at this time last year, will be playing in
1,307 locations this weekend. Like Monsters, Inc., grosses for The Addams Family this weekend will be limited by the film only receiving a few daily showtimes at most theatres. A per-location average in the neighborhood
of $305 would give The Addams Family $0.40 million this weekend. |
| This weekend will also see Well Go USA release Synchronic. The sci-fi horror film stars Jamie Dornan and Anthony Mackie and has received good critical reviews. As of publishing, an official location count
isn't available for Synchronic this weekend, but the film is expected to open in moderate / semi-wide release. BoxOfficeReport isn't making an official opening weekend prediction for Synchronic. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Honest Thief (Open Road / Briarcliff) |
$2.15 M | $7.3 M | -40% | 3 |
| 2 | Tenet (Warner Bros.) |
$1.80 M | $53.1 M | +6% | 9 |
| 3 | The War with Grandpa (101 Studios) |
$1.70 M | $9.5 M | -32% | 3 |
| 4 | The Empty Man (Disney / 20th Century) |
$0.85 M | $0.85 M | NEW | 1 |
| 5 | After We Collided (Open Road) |
$0.75 M | $2.0 M | N/A | 7 |
| 6 | The Nightmare Before Christmas (re-issue) (Disney) |
$0.73 M | $2.4 M | -45% | 2 |
| 7 | Monsters, Inc. (re-issue) (Disney) |
$0.70 M | $0.7 M | NEW | 1 |
| 8 | Hocus Pocus (re-issue) (Disney) |
$0.50 M | $5.5 M | -34% | 4 |
| 9 | The Addams Family (re-issue) (United Artists / MGM) |
$0.40 M | $0.4 M | NEW | 1 |
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